Windsor-Essex could face recession if tariffs continue, union warns one year in

CTV Windsor’s Sanjay Maru takes a look at auto tariffs one year later. Unifor is raising fears about what the next year could look like.

The chair of Unifor’s auto council says he’s worried continued tariffs could push Windsor-Essex into a recession, as Canada marks one year since auto tariffs imposed by the U.S. went into effect.

The tariffs — including a 25 per cent duty on vehicles and key auto inputs — were introduced in early 2025, raising concerns about potential job losses in Canada’s automotive sector, particularly in Windsor-Essex.

One year later, those impacts have been uneven.

“What we saw in 2025 was actually manufacturing output grow by 2.3 per cent,” said Windsor Mayor Drew Dilkens.

He says trade protections under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement helped keep many cross-border goods tariff-free, allowing integrated supply chains to continue operating.

But he notes not all businesses have been able to avoid the impact.

“There are pockets, and there are businesses that are being hit negatively by those tariffs,” said Dilkens, pointing to one Lakeshore-based aluminum manufacturer as an example — a company facing pressure from rising global aluminum costs while also competing against lower-priced imports in the domestic market.

Over the past year, tariffs have been adjusted several times — with initial 25 per cent duties followed by exemptions for some auto-related goods and increases on others.

Many businesses in Canada and the U.S. are facing increased costs and growing competition, both internationally and domestically, due to the implementation of tariffs.

Unifor Auto Council chair John D’Agnolo said Windsor’s relative stability so far may be tied to the timing of recent investments and production commitments but points to other communities as a warning sign.

“We’ve seen what’s happened to Brampton, Ingersoll, Oshawa,” said D’Agnolo.

“We don’t want that here.”

He says layoffs and slowdowns elsewhere in the auto sector highlight ongoing risks.

“There are 80,000-plus workers out of a job right now on the other side of the border.”

For some local workers, the uncertainty has already had real consequences.

“The tariffs really affected me. I worked last January and didn’t work again until November,” said Lynn McArthur.

“It was a lot of stress.”

D’Agnolo says if current conditions persist, the economic outlook could worsen significantly.

“If this goes on for another year, we’ll be in a recession,” he said.

For some, the impact of tariffs — and Canada’s responsive countermeasures — is about more than jobs. It’s about the cross-border relationship many Windsorites rely on.

“I have friends in the States who are hard-working people. I also think about the tourism that suffered because of the relationships that were affected between Canadian travellers and the U.S.,” said McArthur.

“I think that’s a real shame.”