Majority of Canadians not even considering voting for the Liberals: Nanos
Fewer Canadians than at almost any point since the party was elected with Justin Trudeau as leader are considering voting for the federal Liberals, according to the latest tracking by Nanos Research.
The polling firm has tracked "accessible voters," that is, how many Canadians would consider voting Liberal, each week since before the party was elected with Trudeau as leader in 2015.
While between 50 and 60 per cent of respondents said they would consider voting for the Liberals when surveyed in the months leading up to the 2015 federal election — when former prime minister Stephen Harper's Conservative party was still in power — only 36.2 per cent would consider casting their ballot for Trudeau's Liberals right now.
That figure is only slightly a little higher than the Trudeau Liberals' all-time low in November, when 34.6 per cent of respondents said they would consider voting for the party.
"That means a majority of Canadians don't even have them on the radar as a vote choice," said Nik Nanos, CTV's official pollster and Nanos Research founder, in an interview with CTV News' Trend Line on Wednesday.
(Nanos Research)
At the party's peak popularity among accessible voters, 66 per cent of Nanos survey respondents in August 2016 said they would consider voting for the Liberals.
Nanos told Trend Line host Michael Stittle the latest numbers speak to the further collapsing of an already "narrow and fixed" subset of voters to which the Liberals still appeal.
Moreover, Nanos' latest ballot tracking finds the Conservatives with a 20-point lead over the Liberals.
In other words, Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives would capture 43 per cent of the vote if an election were held today, while the Liberals would get 23 per cent, the NDP 21 per cent, the Bloc six per cent and the Green Party about four per cent.
(Nanos Research)
"I guess the good news for the Liberals is that the election's not today, because if the election was today, it would be a political spanking, for all intents and purposes," Nanos said, adding that his latest ballot tracking shows there is a "massive appetite for change" among voters.
As for the kind of change Canadian voters are seeking, it might come down to the popularity of the individual steering the ship. After all, Nanos said, the Liberals have "tried everything" to win voters back.
"They've thrown the kitchen sink … the kitchen counters, the kitchen cupboards, the kitchen," he said. "They've thrown everything at Pierre Poilievre (and) the Conservatives, and right now the Conservatives still have a big advantage."
(Nanos Research)
Meanwhile, only 30 per cent of Canadians recently surveyed by Nanos feel Trudeau has the qualities of a good political leader – down from more than 70 per cent in 2015 and 2016.
Adding to the pain for the Liberals, 37 per cent of Nanos survey respondents, as of the week ending March 1, listed Poilievre as their preferred prime minister, compared to 19 per cent who selected Trudeau.
(Nanos Research)
With Canada's next general election due to take place by October 2025 at the latest, there is still some time for the Liberals to turn things around, and Nanos said this year's federal budget could prove a key opportunity for the party to win voters back.
"The big question is: Is it going to be a big spending or a restraint budget? And I think that's going to be the tricky part for the Liberals," Nanos said. "Many Canadians are tightening their belts because they're worried about paying for the bills, and that's probably what they're going to expect from the government, too."
Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts. The next episode comes out Wednesday, March 20.
Methodology
Each week, Nanos measures the political pulse of Canadian voters through hundreds of telephone surveys. The data is based on random interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (recruited by RDD land- and cell-line sample), using a four-week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four-week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added.
A random survey of 1,000 respondents in Canada is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20
IN DEPTH
![](https://www.ctvnews.ca/polopoly_fs/1.6922467.1718138898!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_800/image.jpg)
'Not the result we wanted': Trudeau responds after surprise Conservative byelection win in Liberal stronghold
Conservative candidate Don Stewart winning the closely-watched Toronto-St. Paul's federal byelection, and delivering a stunning upset to Justin Trudeau's candidate Leslie Church in the long-time Liberal riding, has sent political shockwaves through both parties.
'We will go with the majority': Liberals slammed by opposition over proposal to delay next election
The federal Liberal government learned Friday it might have to retreat on a proposal within its electoral reform legislation to delay the next vote by one week, after all opposition parties came out to say they can't support it.
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
![](https://www.ctvnews.ca/polopoly_fs/1.6850735.1713368648!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_800/image.jpg)
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
![](https://www.ctvnews.ca/polopoly_fs/1.6976871.1721873052!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_800/image.jpg)
DEVELOPING Jasper updates: Wildfire reaches townsite
One of two wildfires threatening Jasper National Park has reached the townsite.
Alberta calls in army to assist with wildfire situation
Alberta has called in the Canadian Armed Forces to help assist with the worsening wildfire situation in the province.
Biden explains why he ended re-election bid in Oval Office address
U.S. President Joe Biden on Wednesday delivered a solemn call to voters to defend the country's democracy as he laid out in an Oval Office address his decision to drop his bid for reelection and throw his support behind Vice President Kamala Harris.
Barrie-Innisfil MPP 'blacked-out' and crashed car into window of child care centre
Staff at a Barrie child care centre say they are frustrated by what they call a local MPP's inadequate response after a car crashed through a window in one of the toddler rooms.
Norad intercepts Russian and Chinese bombers operating together near Alaska in apparent first
The North American Aerospace Defence Command (Norad) intercepted two Russian and two Chinese bombers flying near Alaska Wednesday in what appears to be the first time the two countries have been intercepted while operating together.
2 Canadians being 'sent home immediately,' removed from Olympic team after drone incident
An analyst and an assistant coach with Canada Soccer are being removed from the Canadian Olympic Team and 'sent home immediately,' according to the Canadian Olympic Committee.
An unwelcome attendee has joined the Paris Olympic Games: COVID-19
After a handful of Australian water polo players tested positive for COVID-19 this week, questions have emerged around how the spread of the disease will be mitigated at the Summer Olympic Games in Paris.
Vacations, meals, booze: Contractor used $100K of charity's money for personal expenses, B.C. court finds
A B.C. man who was hired to help a non-profit build a food hub but instead spent the money on personal expenses – including travel, restaurants, booze and cannabis – has been ordered to pay more than $120,000 in damages.
Male, female killed, 2 others injured in 'gun battle' outside Toronto plaza: police
Two people are dead and two others suffered serious injuries following a shooting that police have described as a 'gun battle' outside a plaza in Scarborough, Ont. early Wednesday morning.
Local Spotlight
![](https://www.ctvnews.ca/polopoly_fs/1.6976054.1721842640!/httpImage/image.png_gen/derivatives/landscape_800/image.png)
Former First Nations chief voices Disney's first Ojibwe language Star Wars movie
A local First Nations elder and veteran is helping to bring the Ojibwe language to a well-known film for the first time.
Ottawa Humane Society reunites Montreal family with cat missing for 8 years
A cat who fled her Montreal home nearly a decade ago has been reunited with her family after being found in Ottawa.
Waterloo, Ont. woman out thousands after car totalled in hit-and-run
A woman in Waterloo, Ont. is out thousands of dollars for a car crash she wasn’t involved in.
'It looks scary, but they're harmless': Bees removed from Winnipeg street light
A swarm of bees living in a lamppost in Winnipeg’s Sage Creek neighbourhood has found a new home for its hive.
'Powerful symbol of the progress we have made': Land being returned to Manitoba Métis Federation
Around 100 acres of Manitoba Crown Land near the Saskatchewan border is being returned to the Métis community.
Cape Breton moose hunting suspended for 3 years due to 'significant' drop in population
Nova Scotia is suspending the licensed Cape Breton moose hunt for three years due to what the province is calling a “significant drop” in the population.
Social media prank could lead to charges after teens allegedly damage homes
A well-known childhood prank known as 'nicky nicky nine doors,' or 'ding dong ditch,' has escalated into a more serious game that could lead to charges for some Surrey, B.C. teens.
Benefit concert to be held for N.B. teen badly injured in 'freak accident'
It's been more than a month since their good friend was seriously hurt in an accident and two teens from Riverview, N.B., are still having a hard time dealing with it.
Here's what happens to rejected Halifax bridge coins
Halifax bridges have collected thousands of coins from around the world.