Majority of Canadians not even considering voting for the Liberals: Nanos
Fewer Canadians than at almost any point since the party was elected with Justin Trudeau as leader are considering voting for the federal Liberals, according to the latest tracking by Nanos Research.
The polling firm has tracked "accessible voters," that is, how many Canadians would consider voting Liberal, each week since before the party was elected with Trudeau as leader in 2015.
While between 50 and 60 per cent of respondents said they would consider voting for the Liberals when surveyed in the months leading up to the 2015 federal election — when former prime minister Stephen Harper's Conservative party was still in power — only 36.2 per cent would consider casting their ballot for Trudeau's Liberals right now.
That figure is only slightly a little higher than the Trudeau Liberals' all-time low in November, when 34.6 per cent of respondents said they would consider voting for the party.
"That means a majority of Canadians don't even have them on the radar as a vote choice," said Nik Nanos, CTV's official pollster and Nanos Research founder, in an interview with CTV News' Trend Line on Wednesday.
(Nanos Research)
At the party's peak popularity among accessible voters, 66 per cent of Nanos survey respondents in August 2016 said they would consider voting for the Liberals.
Nanos told Trend Line host Michael Stittle the latest numbers speak to the further collapsing of an already "narrow and fixed" subset of voters to which the Liberals still appeal.
Moreover, Nanos' latest ballot tracking finds the Conservatives with a 20-point lead over the Liberals.
In other words, Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives would capture 43 per cent of the vote if an election were held today, while the Liberals would get 23 per cent, the NDP 21 per cent, the Bloc six per cent and the Green Party about four per cent.
(Nanos Research)
"I guess the good news for the Liberals is that the election's not today, because if the election was today, it would be a political spanking, for all intents and purposes," Nanos said, adding that his latest ballot tracking shows there is a "massive appetite for change" among voters.
As for the kind of change Canadian voters are seeking, it might come down to the popularity of the individual steering the ship. After all, Nanos said, the Liberals have "tried everything" to win voters back.
"They've thrown the kitchen sink … the kitchen counters, the kitchen cupboards, the kitchen," he said. "They've thrown everything at Pierre Poilievre (and) the Conservatives, and right now the Conservatives still have a big advantage."
(Nanos Research)
Meanwhile, only 30 per cent of Canadians recently surveyed by Nanos feel Trudeau has the qualities of a good political leader – down from more than 70 per cent in 2015 and 2016.
Adding to the pain for the Liberals, 37 per cent of Nanos survey respondents, as of the week ending March 1, listed Poilievre as their preferred prime minister, compared to 19 per cent who selected Trudeau.
(Nanos Research)
With Canada's next general election due to take place by October 2025 at the latest, there is still some time for the Liberals to turn things around, and Nanos said this year's federal budget could prove a key opportunity for the party to win voters back.
"The big question is: Is it going to be a big spending or a restraint budget? And I think that's going to be the tricky part for the Liberals," Nanos said. "Many Canadians are tightening their belts because they're worried about paying for the bills, and that's probably what they're going to expect from the government, too."
Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts. The next episode comes out Wednesday, March 20.
Methodology
Each week, Nanos measures the political pulse of Canadian voters through hundreds of telephone surveys. The data is based on random interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (recruited by RDD land- and cell-line sample), using a four-week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four-week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added.
A random survey of 1,000 respondents in Canada is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20
IN DEPTH
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
'Democracy requires constant vigilance' Trudeau testifies at inquiry into foreign election interference in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified Wednesday before the national public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's electoral processes, following a day of testimony from top cabinet ministers about allegations of meddling in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Recap all the prime minister had to say.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
More than 115 cases of eye damage reported in Ontario after solar eclipse
More than 115 people who viewed the solar eclipse in Ontario earlier this month experienced eye damage after the event, according to eye doctors in the province.
Toxic testing standoff: Family leaves house over air quality
A Sherwood Park family says their new house is uninhabitable. The McNaughton's say they were forced to leave the house after living there for only a week because contaminants inside made it difficult to breathe.
Decoy bear used to catch man who illegally killed a grizzly, B.C. conservation officers say
A man has been handed a lengthy hunting ban and fined thousands of dollars for illegally killing a grizzly bear, B.C. conservation officers say.
B.C. seeks ban on public drug use, dialing back decriminalization
The B.C. NDP has asked the federal government to recriminalize public drug use, marking a major shift in the province's approach to addressing the deadly overdose crisis.
OPP responds to apparent video of officer supporting anti-Trudeau government protestors
The Ontario Provincial Police (OPP) says it's investigating an interaction between a uniformed officer and anti-Trudeau government protestors after a video circulated on social media.
An emergency slide falls off a Delta Air Lines plane, forcing pilots to return to JFK in New York
An emergency slide fell off a Delta Air Lines jetliner shortly after takeoff Friday from New York, and pilots who felt a vibration in the plane circled back to land safely at JFK Airport.
Sophie Gregoire Trudeau on navigating post-political life, co-parenting and freedom
Sophie Gregoire Trudeau says there is 'still so much love' between her and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, as they navigate their post-separation relationship co-parenting their three children.
Last letters of pioneering climber who died on Everest reveal dark side of mountaineering
George Mallory is renowned for being one of the first British mountaineers to attempt to scale the dizzying heights of Mount Everest during the 1920s. Nearly a century later, newly digitized letters shed light on Mallory’s hopes and fears about ascending Everest.
Loud boom in Hamilton caused by propane tank, police say
A loud explosion was heard across Hamilton on Friday after a propane tank was accidentally destroyed and detonated at a local scrap metal yard, police say.
Local Spotlight
DonAir force takes over at Oilers playoff games
As if a 4-0 Edmonton Oilers lead in Game 1 of their playoff series with the Los Angeles Kings wasn't good enough, what was announced at Rogers Place during the next TV timeout nearly blew the roof off the downtown arena.
'It was instant karma': Viral video captures failed theft attempt in Nanaimo, B.C.
Mounties in Nanaimo, B.C., say two late-night revellers are lucky their allegedly drunken antics weren't reported to police after security cameras captured the men trying to steal a heavy sign from a downtown business.
Fergus, Ont. man feels nickel-and-dimed for $0.05 property tax bill
A property tax bill is perplexing a small townhouse community in Fergus, Ont.
Twins from Toronto were Canada's top two female finishers at this year's Boston Marathon
When identical twin sisters Kim and Michelle Krezonoski were invited to compete against some of the world’s most elite female runners at last week’s Boston Marathon, they were in disbelief.
Mystery surrounds giant custom Canucks jerseys worn by Lions Gate Bridge statues
The giant stone statues guarding the Lions Gate Bridge have been dressed in custom Vancouver Canucks jerseys as the NHL playoffs get underway.
'I'm committed': Oilers fan won't cut hair until Stanley Cup comes to Edmonton
A local Oilers fan is hoping to see his team cut through the postseason, so he can cut his hair.
'It's not my father's body!' Wrong man sent home after death on family vacation in Cuba
A family from Laval, Que. is looking for answers... and their father's body. He died on vacation in Cuba and authorities sent someone else's body back to Canada.
'Once is too many times': Education assistants facing rising violence in classrooms
A former educational assistant is calling attention to the rising violence in Alberta's classrooms.
What is capital gains tax? How is it going to affect the economy and the younger generations?
The federal government says its plan to increase taxes on capital gains is aimed at wealthy Canadians to achieve “tax fairness.”