Liberals at risk of big losses in Vancouver, Toronto, Nanos projections show
The federal Conservatives continue to hold a commanding lead over the Liberals, who are at risk of losing large swaths of Metro Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area they won in the last federal election, according to latest ballot numbers and seat projection data from Nanos Research.
If the election was held today, the Conservatives would get 40 per cent of the ballot support marking a 15-point lead over the Liberals, who are at 24.7 per cent ballot support.
That's an increase of 6.3 percentage points for the Conservatives, when compared against their 2021 election performance, while the Liberals are 7.9 percentage points lower than they were three years ago.
"The bottom line is, if an election were held today… we're talking still about a Conservative majority government," Nik Nanos, chair of Nanos Research and CTV News' official pollster, said on the latest episode of Trend Line.
The NDP sit at 20.6 per cent, which is slightly up by 2.8 per cent. Just four percentage points separate them now from the Liberals. The Bloc Quebecois are at 7.4 per cent, largely unchanged from 2021. Meanwhile, the Greens and the People's Party sit at 5.1 per cent and 1.3 per cent ballot support, respectively.
(Nanos Research)
Preferred prime minister
When it comes to the party leaders, Nanos found that 35.1 per cent of respondents said Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was their preferred choice for prime minister.
Incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sits at second, with 20.8 per cent preferring him as PM.
In addition, 13.8 per cent preferred NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, 4.3 per cent preferred Green Party Co-Leader Elizabeth May, and 2.2 per cent preferred Maxime Bernier of the People's Party.
Seat projections
In the below Nanos seat projection maps, the current seat projections are on the left. The results from the 2021 election are on the right.
Greater Toronto Area
(Nanos Research)
Toronto and the surrounding suburbs have been the strongest base of support for Trudeau's Liberals. In the last election, the Liberals won every single seat in the City of Toronto as well as every seat in many of the suburbs, such as Mississauga, Brampton, Pickering and Oakville.
But according to Nanos’ seat projections, many of these ridings are at risk of turning blue, especially in the 905 region just outside of Toronto. Even in downtown Toronto, which Nanos calls "ground zero for the Liberal Party of Canada," the data shows the NDP potentially in a position to pick up seats.
A setback in Toronto would be like an "emergency" situation for the Liberals, Nanos said.
"When you get outside of Toronto, you can see that some of those some of those other ridings ---the Mississaugas, the Bramptons --- it's going to be the Conservatives that are that are going to be some of the key challengers," he added.
Ottawa
(Nanos Research)
Similarly, the ridings in the suburban areas of Ottawa that are currently held by the Liberals also face tough competition from the Conservatives.
"There are a couple of ridings that could flip in Ottawa and that are a little closer than the liberals have seen in the past," said Nanos.
British Columbia
(Nanos Research)
The Lower Mainland in British Columbia was another strong base of support for the Liberals in 2021. In the last election, the vast majority of the ridings in this region went to the Liberals, except for a few ridings in East Vancouver and Burnaby that went to the NDP and the outer suburban ridings that were won by the Conservatives.
But much like in the Toronto region, the Liberals are in for some tough battles in Metro Vancouver from both the Conservatives and the NDP.
"You can see Vancouver being another big battleground, between the Liberals, the New Democrats and the Conservatives," said Nanos.
The Conservatives could also make significant gains in the rest of BC. In 2021, much of Vancouver Island and northwestern B.C. went to the NDP, but Nanos data shows that these ridings would likely go Conservative if the election was held today.
Montreal
(Nanos Research)
The Liberals in 2021 won almost every single riding on the Island of Montreal and the suburb of Laval, while the Bloc Quebecois held many of the ridings off the island.
The Nanos projections show that we would get much of the same result if the election were to be held today.
"Not a lot of change in the island of Montreal. Maybe we'll see the Liberals, pick up, or the NDP pick up a seat from the Liberals and the Bloc having to fend off a little bit of an attack," Nanos said.
Maritimes
(Nanos Research)
Support for the Liberals also appears to be eroding the Maritimes.
In the last election, the Liberals won every single riding in P.E.I. as well as large swaths of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Now, Nanos projects these Liberal ridings could be won by the Conservatives, or are too close to call.
Even the town of Shediac, N.B., a traditional Liberal stronghold that's been held by Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc since 2000, is currently too close to call according to Nanos.
"We have Dominic LeBlanc ahead, but, he's leading by less than seven percentage points in the Nanos modeling," Nanos said.
"(LeBlanc) has a solid track record. And you know what? If he has to kind of look over his shoulder and focus on making sure that he fights in Shediac, that's not good news for the Liberals in the region."
Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts. The next episode comes out Wednesday, Feb. 20.
Correction
The article has been corrected to say the Green Party of Canada's current ballot support is 5.1% in the Nanos tracking. The 2.8% number mentioned was the popular support number after the 2021 federal election.
IN DEPTH
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
'Democracy requires constant vigilance' Trudeau testifies at inquiry into foreign election interference in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified Wednesday before the national public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's electoral processes, following a day of testimony from top cabinet ministers about allegations of meddling in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Recap all the prime minister had to say.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
'Happy tears' of victim's sister after prison attack on serial killer Robert Pickton
Cynthia Cardinal said she was 'overwhelmed' with happiness when she received a text message on Monday with the news that serial killer Robert Pickton, who murdered her sister, was attacked in prison. She called it 'karma.'
DEVELOPING Republican National Committee in Washington evacuated after blood vials received in package
The headquarters of the Republican National Committee in Washington, D.C., was briefly evacuated on Wednesday morning after a suspicious package containing two vials of blood was delivered to the building, the police said.
Fish oil supplements may raise risk of stroke, heart issues, study suggests
As an excellent source of heart-healthy omega-3 fatty acids, daily fish oil supplements are a popular way to keep the risk of cardiovascular disease at bay.
Montreal photographer captures dramatic Canada goose vs. fox fight on video
A Montreal photographer captured the moment a Canada goose defended itself from a fox at the Botanical Garden.
Interpol says more than 1,500 stolen Canadian vehicles identified since February
Interpol says more than 200 stolen Canadian vehicles have been found each week across the globe since February.
Thunderstorms with tornado risk in some areas in Ontario, snow elsewhere in Canada
Canadians can expect a mixed bag of weather, with forecasts warning of thunderstorms, heavy rain and snow in some areas across western Canada.
opinion Biden steals debate issue from Trump campaign, makes it his own
Donald Trump had spent weeks needling U.S. President Joe Biden for his refusal to commit to a debate. But Washington political columnist Eric Ham describes how in one fell swoop, Biden ingeniously stole the issue from the Trump campaign and made it his own.
'All hell broke loose': Passengers on Singapore Airlines flight describe nightmare at 37,000 feet
Passengers on a Singapore Airlines flight hit by severe turbulence on Tuesday described a sudden, dramatic drop as 'all hell broke loose' on board the Boeing airliner carrying 229 passengers and crew.
3 people dead after stabbing in Plateau-Mont-Royal: Montreal police
Three people are dead after they were stabbed in Montreal's Plateau-Mont-Royal borough Tuesday evening, police say.
Local Spotlight
Montreal photographer captures dramatic Canada goose vs. fox fight on video
A Montreal photographer captured the moment a Canada goose defended itself from a fox at the Botanical Garden.
Beyond books: Halifax libraries lends instruments, sports equipment, memory kits and more
Public libraries in Atlantic Canada are now lending a broader range of items.
'A special bird': The unbreakable bond between purple martins and humans
Flashes of purple darting across the sky mixed with the serenading sound of songs will be noticed more with spring in full force in Manitoba.
7-year-old Pokémon prodigy heading to Hawaii for world championship tournament
Catching 'em all with impressive speed, a 7-year-old boy from Windsor, Ont. who only started his competitive Pokémon journey seven months ago has already levelled up to compete at a world championship level.
VIDEO Born without front legs, this dog has been inspiring the world for 3 years: Dresden farm owner
A sanctuary dedicated to animals with disabilities is celebrating the third birthday of one of its most popular residents.
From DVDs to rehearsals: Halifax theatre company transforms Video Difference building into arts hub
2b Theatre recently moved into the old Video Difference building, seeking to transform it into an artistic hub, meeting space, and temporary housing unit for visiting performers in Halifax.
'Another pair of eyes watching over me:' How a B.C. woman's service dog saved her from drowning
A B.C. woman says her service dog pulled her from a lake moments before she had a seizure, saving her life.
Starbucks fan on decades-long journey to visit every store in the world
A Starbucks fan — whose name is Winter — is visiting Canada on a purposeful journey that began with a random idea at one of the coffee chain's stores in Texas.
'Sacred work': Sask. First Nation learning how to conduct its own underground searches
Members of Piapot First Nation, students from the University of Winnipeg and various other professionals are learning new techniques that will hopefully be used for ground searches of potential unmarked grave sites in the future.