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Liberals and NDP tied in ballot support, Conservatives 19 points ahead: Nanos

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The governing minority Liberals' decline in the polls has now placed them in a tie for support with their confidence-and-supply partners the NDP, while the Conservatives are now 19 points ahead, according Nanos' latest ballot tracking.

Under the current trend line, Nanos Research founder Nik Nanos said if the Liberals want to have a chance at winning the next federal election, a "complete reboot" will be needed heading into 2024.

"Either with a new leader or… Justin Trudeau with a renewed vision of why he believes that he should deserve another mandate," Nanos said in the latest episode of CTV News Trend Line.

"It's going to be a tough slog for the Liberals any way you cut it."

As of his latest weekly tracking, Nanos said the Conservatives are sitting at 41 per cent, up three points from the last four weeks prior, while the Liberals are down three points at 22 and the New Democrats are up two points, also sitting at 22 per cent ballot support.

The figures have the Bloc Quebecois with 6.1 per cent support, the Green Party with 5.5 per cent, and the People's Party of Canada with two per cent support.

(Source: Nanos Research)

Nanos said the current trend line shows Conservatives still "rocketing up," while the Liberal decline persists, appearing to almost mirror the NDP, a trajectory Nanos called "striking."

He said the last time the Liberals were neck and neck with the NDP, was when Michael Ignatieff was Liberal leader.

(Source: Nanos Research)

NANOS WATCHING FOR EARLY 2024 TREND LINE

Nanos speculated that if the NDP's numbers end up pulling ahead of the Liberals, Leader Jagmeet Singh may start viewing an earlier election as being to his party's advantage, similar to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre who, with polling numbers currently placing them in potential majority government territory, could be angling for "a smash and grab," victory.

"I think it's going to be interesting to see what the trend line is in the close out of 2023 and early 2024," Nanos said.

One caution the CTV News pollster made, was that with the Conservative numbers as high as they are, they may not be sustainable.

"What the Conservatives have to worry about is that when the trend starts to adjust itself... It's like a market correction, when it starts to adjust itself, will that project on to Pierre Poilievre if he has a misstep or says something that people don't like?" Nanos said.

These latest ballot numbers represent respondents views up to last Friday, after a week during which Poilievre was on the defensive over a series of comments and positions his party took.

"I think this is more about a rejection of the Liberals and dissatisfaction with the Liberals than a huggable, warm political embrace of Pierre Poilievre himself, but also of the of the Conservative Party. But you know what? Riding that wave of discontent wins elections, so we shouldn't discount that," Nanos said.

TRUDEAU STILL AHEAD OF SINGH FOR PREFERRED PM

When it comes to Canadians' views on who they'd prefer as prime minister, while Nanos said Trudeau and Poilievre were once tied on this metric, the latest numbers indicate the Official Opposition leader is "firmly in the driver's seat."

(Source: Nanos Research)

Currently, Poilievre leads as preferred prime minister, with 34.1 per cent support, followed by Trudeau at 19 per cent and Singh at 16.2 per cent.

"Now what we're seeing is the Conservatives now enjoy an advantage in both leadership and on the ballot numbers," Nanos said, suggesting this is connected to his focus on the cost-of-living.

"If people are struggling to pay for the groceries, the rent, and the mortgage, they really have nothing to lose by punishing the government of the day and looking at alternatives. Because they're thinking 'OK, it can't get worse' … And I think that's what Pierre Poilievre is tapping into."

Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts. The next episode comes out Wednesday, Dec. 13.

Methodology: Random telephone survey (land- and cell-lines) with 1,093 Canadian consumers aged 18 years and over, ending Nov. 24, 2023. The data is based on a four-week rolling average where each week the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 is added. A random survey of 1,093 Canadian consumers is accurate 3.0 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

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