Federal Conservatives open up 7-point lead over Liberals to start 2023: Nanos
The federal Conservatives have gained a seven-point lead over the Liberals in the latest weekly ballot tracking by Nanos Research.
According to 1,084 random interviews conducted during the week ending Jan. 13, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives would capture 35.6 per cent of the vote if an election were held today, while the Liberals would get 28.3 per cent, the NDP 20.7 per cent, the Bloc 7.4 per cent, the Green Party 5.8 per cent and the People's Party 2.1 per cent.
The Conservative lead – which has been creeping up steadily since December -- is now outside the margin of error, and with the NDP increasing their share of the ballot, the Liberals are having their support chipped away at, both sides. In an interview on CTV News' Trend Line podcast, Nanos Research founder Nik Nanos called the numbers “very grim" for the Liberals.
"This is the worst way for the Liberals to start off their year, because they're basically back on their heels, and it looks like a significant number of Canadians are looking at the Conservatives," Nanos told host Michael Stittle on Wednesday.
"I think what the Liberals have to worry about is a one-two-punch, basically getting squeezed by the Conservatives on the one side, the New Democrats on the other, and vote splits that will be working against the Liberals."
IS HEALTH CRISIS TESTING AGREEMENT WITH NDP?
Nanos said heading into the 2023 parliamentary season, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government might have its supply-and-confidence deal with the NDP tested, as the Liberals look to forge health-care funding agreements with the provinces while balancing outstanding health commitments on dental and pharmacare as part of the parliamentary pact.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is calling on the Liberals to make protecting the universal public system a condition in any coming deal with the provinces to increase the Canada Health Transfer. Though, Singh has yet to say whether he’d be willing to pull out of the agreement that’s poised to see the Liberals stay in power until 2025 over the issue.
According to the latest Nanos issue tracking, health care is the top unprompted national issue of concern for Canadians, followed by inflation, jobs and economy and the environment. Nanos pointed out that health care has traditionally been a strong policy area for the NDP.
"The New Democrats have a big interest in protecting public health care," he said.
"So expect Singh to put the political vice grips on the Liberals to protect and enhance public health care and access to public health care. I think that the initial battle lines might actually be between the New Democrats and the Liberals on this issue."
BIDEN’S VISIT PRESENTS OPPORTUNITY
He said the Liberals may also want to use the 2023 federal budget as an opportunity to prove they have a strong vision for their next mandate and that they're not just coasting through this one. Following the upcoming March visit by U.S. President Joe Biden to Canada, Nanos said the government would be smart to announce what they accomplished in meetings with the Biden administration.
"It's not enough just to say, 'Oh, we're friends, we like each other, we have a great relationship,'" he said. "What the Liberals have to do, ideally, is put something in the window in terms of something specific being accomplished in the bi-national relationship."
TRUDEAU STILL PREFERRED PM
Another area where Nanos said the Liberals might find a foothold is public perception of the federal leaders. According to the research firm's latest Preferred PM numbers, while the Conservative party is gaining favour among those surveyed, its leader Poilievre, is statistically tied with Trudeau.
Nanos tracking has Trudeau as the preferred choice for prime minister at 30 per cent of Canadians, followed by Poilievre at 27.5 per cent, Singh at 16.2 per cent, Elizabeth May at 4.2 per cent and Maxime Bernier at two per cent. Sixteen per cent of Canadians were unsure whom they preferred.
For this reason, he said the Liberals may choose to concentrate on undermining Poilievre's "brand" this year, ahead of the 2025 election.
"(Poilievre) and his brand will be the main focus of a lot of the political dialogue in 2023 as he tries to build up his brand and the Liberals try to tear him down," he said.
"I would expect that the Liberals are probably going to come out swinging through 2023, because they've got to change the trend line."
METHODOLOGY
Each week, Nanos measures the political pulse of Canadian voters through hundreds of telephone surveys. The data is based on random interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (recruited by RDD land- and cell-line sample), using a four-week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four-week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added.
A random survey of 1,000 respondents in Canada is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
More on Nanos’ political and issue tracking methodology https://nanos.co/dataportal/nanos-tracking-methodology/
– With files from Senior Digital Parliamentary Reporter Rachel Aiello
IN DEPTH
![](https://www.ctvnews.ca/polopoly_fs/1.6922467.1718138898!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_800/image.jpg)
'Not the result we wanted': Trudeau responds after surprise Conservative byelection win in Liberal stronghold
Conservative candidate Don Stewart winning the closely-watched Toronto-St. Paul's federal byelection, and delivering a stunning upset to Justin Trudeau's candidate Leslie Church in the long-time Liberal riding, has sent political shockwaves through both parties.
'We will go with the majority': Liberals slammed by opposition over proposal to delay next election
The federal Liberal government learned Friday it might have to retreat on a proposal within its electoral reform legislation to delay the next vote by one week, after all opposition parties came out to say they can't support it.
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
![](https://www.ctvnews.ca/polopoly_fs/1.6850735.1713368648!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_800/image.jpg)
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
![](https://www.ctvnews.ca/polopoly_fs/1.6976926.1721883767!/httpImage/image.png_gen/derivatives/landscape_800/image.png)
AS IT HAPPENED Wildfire reaches Jasper Wednesday night, causes 'significant loss'
One of two wildfires threatening Jasper National Park reached the townsite Wednesday night and caused 'significant loss.'
Alberta calls in army to assist with wildfire situation
Alberta has called in the Canadian Armed Forces to help assist with the worsening wildfire situation in the province.
Biden explains why he ended re-election bid in Oval Office address
U.S. President Joe Biden on Wednesday delivered a solemn call to voters to defend the country's democracy as he laid out in an Oval Office address his decision to drop his bid for reelection and throw his support behind Vice President Kamala Harris.
Barrie-Innisfil MPP 'blacked-out' and crashed car into window of child care centre
Staff at a Barrie child care centre say they are frustrated by what they call a local MPP's inadequate response after a car crashed through a window in one of the toddler rooms.
Norad intercepts Russian and Chinese bombers operating together near Alaska in apparent first
The North American Aerospace Defence Command (Norad) intercepted two Russian and two Chinese bombers flying near Alaska Wednesday in what appears to be the first time the two countries have been intercepted while operating together.
2 Canadians being 'sent home immediately,' removed from Olympic team after drone incident
An analyst and an assistant coach with Canada Soccer are being removed from the Canadian Olympic Team and 'sent home immediately,' according to the Canadian Olympic Committee.
An unwelcome attendee has joined the Paris Olympic Games: COVID-19
After a handful of Australian water polo players tested positive for COVID-19 this week, questions have emerged around how the spread of the disease will be mitigated at the Summer Olympic Games in Paris.
Vacations, meals, booze: Contractor used $100K of charity's money for personal expenses, B.C. court finds
A B.C. man who was hired to help a non-profit build a food hub but instead spent the money on personal expenses – including travel, restaurants, booze and cannabis – has been ordered to pay more than $120,000 in damages.
Male, female killed, 2 others injured in 'gun battle' outside Toronto plaza: police
Two people are dead and two others suffered serious injuries following a shooting that police have described as a 'gun battle' outside a plaza in Scarborough, Ont. early Wednesday morning.
Local Spotlight
![](https://www.ctvnews.ca/polopoly_fs/1.6976054.1721842640!/httpImage/image.png_gen/derivatives/landscape_800/image.png)
Former First Nations chief voices Disney's first Ojibwe language Star Wars movie
A local First Nations elder and veteran is helping to bring the Ojibwe language to a well-known film for the first time.
Ottawa Humane Society reunites Montreal family with cat missing for 8 years
A cat who fled her Montreal home nearly a decade ago has been reunited with her family after being found in Ottawa.
Waterloo, Ont. woman out thousands after car totalled in hit-and-run
A woman in Waterloo, Ont. is out thousands of dollars for a car crash she wasn’t involved in.
'It looks scary, but they're harmless': Bees removed from Winnipeg street light
A swarm of bees living in a lamppost in Winnipeg’s Sage Creek neighbourhood has found a new home for its hive.
'Powerful symbol of the progress we have made': Land being returned to Manitoba Métis Federation
Around 100 acres of Manitoba Crown Land near the Saskatchewan border is being returned to the Métis community.
Cape Breton moose hunting suspended for 3 years due to 'significant' drop in population
Nova Scotia is suspending the licensed Cape Breton moose hunt for three years due to what the province is calling a “significant drop” in the population.
Social media prank could lead to charges after teens allegedly damage homes
A well-known childhood prank known as 'nicky nicky nine doors,' or 'ding dong ditch,' has escalated into a more serious game that could lead to charges for some Surrey, B.C. teens.
Benefit concert to be held for N.B. teen badly injured in 'freak accident'
It's been more than a month since their good friend was seriously hurt in an accident and two teens from Riverview, N.B., are still having a hard time dealing with it.
Here's what happens to rejected Halifax bridge coins
Halifax bridges have collected thousands of coins from around the world.