What to know about the latest effort to end Turkey’s 40-year Kurdish conflict

A group of armed Kurdish fighters from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) enter northern Iraq in the Heror area, northeast of Dahuk, 260 miles (430 kilometers) northwest of Baghdad, Iraq, May 14, 2013. (AP Photo/Ceerwan Aziz, File)

ANKARA, Turkey — The PKK Kurdish militant group announced Monday that it is disbanding and renouncing armed conflict as part of a new peace initiative with Turkey, ending four decades of hostilities.

The decision by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which promises to put an end to one of the longest insurgencies in the Middle East and could have significant impact in Turkey, Syria and Iraq, was announced by the Firat News Agency, a media outlet close to the group. It comes days after the PKK convened a party congress in northern Iraq.

In February, PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, who has been imprisoned on an island near Istanbul since 1999, urged his group to convene a congress and formally decide to disband and disarm.

The call by Ocalan, 76, who continues to wields significant influence in the Kurdish movement despite his 25-year imprisonment, marked a pivotal step toward ending the decadeslong conflict that has claimed tens of thousands of lives since the 1980s.

Building on the momentum, the PKK announced a unilateral ceasefire on March 1, but attached conditions, including the creation of a legal framework for peace negotiations.

The conflict between Turkey and the PKK has spilled over into northern Iraq and northern Syria, with Turkey carrying out numerous incursions into the neighboring regions. The PKK is listed as a terror group by Turkey and its Western allies.

PKK says group has completed its ‘historical mission’

In a statement carried by Firat news, the PKK announced it decision to end its “organizational structure,” suggesting that its armed struggle has successfully challenged policies that sought to suppress Kurdish rights.

The congress assessed that the PKK’s struggle had “brought the Kurdish issue to the point of resolution through democratic politics, thus completing its historical mission,” according to the statement.

“As a result, activities carried out under the name ‘PKK’ were formally terminated,” the statement said.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who hosted talks with his Syrian and Jordanian counterparts in Ankara, described the decision as “historic,” but said the government would closely monitor the steps the group takes.

Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani, said: “Today, a peace agreement has been declared with the PKK, which will also contribute to the stability of the region.”

Turkey’s governing party welcomed the announcement “as a significant step toward the goal of a terror-free Turkey.”

“If terrorism is completely eradicated, it will open the door to a new era,” Omer Celik, spokesman for President Recep Erdogan’s party, wrote on the X social media platform.

Turkey says decision should apply to all PKK affiliates

Celik, however, said the decision must apply to all “PKK branches, affiliates and illegal structures.” He did not elaborate but the statement appeared to be in reference to Kurdish fighters in Syria, who have ties to the PKK and have been involved in intense fighting with Turkish-backed forces on the ground there.

The leader of the U.S.-backed Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces had previously stated that Ocalan’s call for a ceasefire does not apply to his group in Syria.

Details of the peace initiative have not been made public and it was not clear how the process would proceed, including how weapons would be disposed of and who would monitor the procedures.

The future of PKK fighters remains uncertain, including whether they may be relocated to third countries. Any concessions the PKK might obtain in exchange for its decision to disband have not been disclosed.

Some analysts have suggested Kurdish movement could potentially receive some political concessions, including improvement in Ocalan’s prison conditions, release or amnesty for jailed Kurdish politicians, including Selahattin Demirtas, the former leader of the country’s pro-Kurdish party, and guarantees against Kurdish mayors’ removal from office.

Previous peace efforts between Turkey and the group — most recently in 2015 — ended in failure.

Dozens of people gathered Monday outside a mosque in the mainly-Kurdish city of Diyarbakir, celebrating the announcement with a traditional Kurdish dance.

Why is the peace initiative happening now?

In recent years, the PKK has been limited to isolated attacks inside Turkey as the Turkish military, backed by armed drones, has pushed PKK insurgents increasingly across the mountainous border into Iraq.

The latest peace initiative was launched in October by Erdogan’s coalition partner, Devlet Bahceli, a far-right politician who suggested that Ocalan could be granted parole if his group renounces violence and disbands.

Some believe the main aim of the reconciliation effort is for Erdogan’s government to garner Kurdish support for a new constitution that would allow him to remain in power beyond 2028, when his term ends.

Bahceli has openly called for a new constitution, saying it is essential for Turkey’s future that Erdogan remain in power. Erdogan and Bahceli are reportedly seeking parliamentary support from the pro-Kurdish People’s Equality and Democracy Party, or DEM.

The PKK’s declaration could mark a major gain for Erdogan, whose government is grappling with political tensions following the arrest of Istanbul’s Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on corruption charges. Many see the imprisonment of the mayor, who is the opposition’s strongest challenger to Erdogan’s more than two-decade rule, as politically motivated. The government insists Turkey’s judiciary operates independently.

Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based Edam think tank, cited both domestic and international drivers for the new peace initiative.

“The domestic driver can be explained by Erdogan’s aspiration to secure additional support in parliament in order to pave the path to his potential candidacy for the next round of presidential elections,” Ulgen said.

Internationally, Ulgen said, factors such as the change of administration in Syria and Iran’s weakening after being targeted by Israel, had left the PKK “more vulnerable than in the past.”

Could the PKK splinter?

“This does not mean that the road is clear of all hurdles,” Ulgen added, warning of possible splits within the PKK.

“We’ve seen this sort of dynamics around the world,” Ulgen said. “Whether it is IRA or other entities that have decided to lay down arms, there is the prospect of a split, with one wing being in compliance with the objective, but the more radical wing continuing with the fight.”

Bahceli said he hoped “the bloody chapter will be closed forever, never to be reopened.”

The politician called for a careful consideration of the steps to follow, including the timing and method of arms collection, monitoring the possible transitions of PKK members into groups in Syria, distinguishing members involved in criminal activities from those who were not, and deciding the appropriate course action concerning the group’s leadership.

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Cinar Kiper contributed from Bodrum, Turkey.

The Associated Press