Why does Doug Ford care who becomes mayor of Toronto?

Several mayoral candidates vote in advance polls As the mayoral election campaign enters its stretch run, candidates were out across the city on Saturday getting their messages out.

Doug Ford isn’t running to become Toronto’s next mayor, but an average voter could be forgiven if they thought he was.

The premier's name comes up almost daily on the campaign trail, with one candidate or another vowing to stand up to Ford or to make sure Toronto is “getting a fair deal.”

Promising to stand up to Queen’s Park is nothing new for candidates running for office in Toronto. But if the premier finds his name too often on the lips of Toronto’s mayoral candidates, he certainly shares some of the blame.

It was in the early days of the race that he proclaimed a left-wing mayor would be a “disaster” for Toronto.

“If a left-wing mayor gets in there, we're toast. I'll tell you, it would be a disaster in my opinion,” he told reporters just days after John Tory resigned.

Weeks later, despite saying that he wouldn't interfere in the election, Ford told people not to vote for anyone who might cut the police budget. That prompted former candidate Gil Penalosa to brand him “Pinocchio” for going back on his word not to interfere.

And while he never formally endorsed anyone, he did welcome the candidacy of Mark Saunders, saying it would be “great” for him to join the race. Saunders had previously run in the provincial election as a PC candidate and had been appointed by the Ford government as a special adviser on the redevelopment of Ontario Place.

The praise did not go unnoticed.

“Mark Saunders is Doug Ford’s puppet,” Ana Bailao told CP24 in an interview this week in response to Saunders’ call for other candidates to support him to defeat front-runner Olivia Chow. “You know that electing him is electing Doug Ford as both the premier and the mayor of the city.”

To hear it told by Saunders’ opponents, the former police chief would be a shill for Ford, who could pull the strings from Queen’s Park with greater ease than ever thanks to the strong mayor powers the premier just recently bestowed on the city, particularly with a mind to fast-tracking development.

It’s a line of attack that has been repeated often throughout the campaign.

For his part, Saunders released a statement several weeks ago saying it is “absolutely essential that Toronto’s mayor is able to sit at the table and have productive discussions with all levels of government” and that he worked well with former Premier Kathleen Wynne and with Ford when he was Toronto’s police chief.

He added some of his opponents, like Olivia Chow and Josh Matlow, “think that Torontonians would be better off in constant conflict with the provincial or federal governments.”

Saunders’ campaign referred to the statement when asked by CP24.com about his relationship with the premier and whether Ford asked him to run and added that “Bailao is simply repeating what Josh Matlow and Olivia Chow have been trying to do - and it's falling on deaf ears.”

Ford’s office did not respond to requests for comment about the accusation that the premier is trying to run Toronto from Queen’s Park. Nor did his office respond to a question about whether he would respect the mandate of a new mayor on important issues for the city, such as the fate of Ontario Place.

‘OBSESSED’ WITH TORONTO

On the surface, it might seem odd that the premier has taken such a keen interest in the Toronto mayoral race, with an entire province to worry about.

Asked about the premier’s non-neutrality in the local election, Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles told CP24 in an interview Friday that Ford seems to be “obsessed with Toronto."

“He's been obsessed with Toronto, and in a way that I think is a bit unhealthy when it comes to being the premier of the province,” Stiles said. “You've got big things you've got to deal with. I would like him to be worried about things like you know, making sure that the City of Toronto has the funding they need to do the things that serve the people of this city. But instead he seems to just want to put his friends in positions of power. And that's a problem.”

Stiles said she has her own preference in terms of who becomes mayor, but would work with anyone if she were premier. (For the record, Ford has also said he would work with anyone, despite having expressed a preference).

“Some of the decisions that they (the provincial government) made have been a real hit on cities like Toronto and other cities across this province,” Stiles said. “We’re going to see our infrastructure, you know, continue to crumble. We're going to see less and less services available unless the province actually comes to the table and supports the city.”

If Stiles think Ford is obsessed with Toronto, it’s hard to argue she’s altogether wrong.

A former city councillor whose brother was mayor, Ford ran his own unsuccessful bid to become Toronto’s mayor back in 2014. He was defeated by John Tory, but still beat Olivia Chow in terms of overall votes.

In his first term as premier, Ford used his Queen’s Park majority to slash the size of Toronto City Council in half during an election, take over Toronto's subway expansion plan and forbid ranked ballot voting, a system which had already been adopted in London, Ont. and which Toronto was studying.

Most recently the premier has drawn fire for plans to rearrange two beloved Toronto attractions — Ontario Place ,where a giant spa and water park are set to be built if the province has its way, and the Ontario Science Centre, which Ford wants to relocate to Ontario Place so that the land can be used for housing.

WHY THE NEXT MAYOR MATTERS PROVINCIALLY

While Toronto residents might call foul on interference from Queen’s Park on any of those matters, the fact remains the province technically has the power to get away with all of it. Canada's constitution does not recognize cities as independent entities. They are instead ‘creatures of the province.’

But while on paper the premier holds most of the cards, theoretically able to legislate Toronto out of existence using his majority if he wished, the reality is not so simple according to Nelson Wiseman, Professor Emeritus in political science at UofT.

"Although you have a lot of power as the premier over the city, you don't want to be bad-mouthed by the mayor of the city. You want someone who's going to be a good boy or girl and not fight with you,” Wiseman told CP24.com.

While a premier certainly trumps a mayor in terms of actual power “the mayor can make all kinds of comments which put the premier in a bad light without directly attacking him,” Wiseman says.

While the new mayor will need to work with the province, and therefore be moderate in terms of what they say, tension between the mayor and the premier could prove costly politically speaking, he adds.

And at the moment, Wiseman says, the numbers suggest Ford is not in a position where he wants to lose political points.

“Whoever gets elected is going to have a lot of political capital,” Wiseman says. "In other words, the person is relatively popular. As it turns out, Doug Ford isn't very popular.”

A poll released just this week suggests that while the premier once enjoyed strong popularity, that is no longer the case.

While his approval rate sat at around 45 per cent when he was re-elected a year ago, it dipped in December and is holding at around 33 per cent, according to the Angus Reid poll released Wednesday.

“You don't want to be criticized by whoever becomes the mayor,” Wiseman says.

And while the premier can get away with a lot, he says; “the issue is, are you going to pay a political price for it?”

Some candidates are certainly ready to exact a price for perceived incursions into city business.

“Some people have asked, how will I work with Doug Ford? And my answer is, given his behaviour, I think it's really important to see how Doug Ford will work with us,” candidate Josh Matlow told CP24 in a recent interview. “Because he has behaved like a bully thus far.”

If he was mayor, Matlow said, he’s confident he could win a fight with the premier too.

“Absolutely, yeah,” he said. “I absolutely think of how many times he's backed off and backed down when there’s public pushback.”

He adds: “When I negotiate with Doug Ford, I'm going to have the people of Toronto at the table with me.”

With files from Chis Fox, Eden Debebe and Katherine DeClerq