Tom Mulcair: Why Pierre Poilievre has a double advantage
Pierre Poilievre knows how to laugh. I heard it myself.
On Monday Poilievre was asked to react to Jean Charest’s “attack,” calling him a career politician with no real life experience. Poilievre let out a belly laugh and simply remarked that Charest was elected to Parliament in…1984!
Charest may have lots of skills today but he didn’t have two lines on his CV when he was first elected. For him to be calling Poilievre a career politician was indeed laughable.
The race to become the sixth Conservative leader in seven years is shaping up to be a lot more fun than the previous races that produced Scheer and O’Toole as cannon fodder for Trudeau’s Liberals.
To begin with, Poilievre is young, energetic and driven. That will serve him well over the next six months as he traverses the country constantly. I went through a lengthy campaign to succeed Jack Layton and know first hand just how gruelling the exercise is. Canada is indeed huge and in a leadership race, you have to get into every nook and cranny to meet, greet and sell memberships.
Poilievre was in Quebec last weekend and did well. When you get 200 people in a hall in Trois-Rivières, you’ve generated some interest in your campaign.
Poilievre doesn’t shy away from controversy and when asked about meeting anti-vaxxers, reverts to a “good people on both sides” argument.
Poilievre will be able to count on a lot of second choice votes from Leslyn Lewis supporters. She is staunchly anti-abortion and will reel in large numbers of votes from social conservatives and some church groups. If she fails to progress through the successive ballot counts, most of her votes would stay on the right side of the ledger and favour Poilievre, who gets a political two for one. He’ll get her votes but won’t have to get ensnared in the trap that caught Scheer. Unlike Scheer, Poilievre will be able to avoid committing too heavily and won’t have to pander to the anti-choice voters.
As in the two previous leadership races, it will be a crowded field. The ranked ballot can produce surprises: most Conservatives will have chosen to forget that Maxime Bernier came within a hair’s breadth of leading the party when Andrew Scheer won.
What will be the most interesting to watch is who aligns with whom.
When MP Scott Aitchison launched his campaign he said he was running because he was fed up with partisan bickering and political games and said what was missing was leadership. One can be forgiven for assuming that the master stuntman, Pierre Poilievre, was in Aitchison’s crosshairs.
This race really is a battle for the heart and soul of a Janus-faced Party and the past leaders of its two philosophical sides could help decide its future. If and when Brian Mulroney and Stephen Harper declare, that battle will have been joined in earnest.
Charest would love to get Mulroney’s support and be seen as his potential successor in forming a majority Conservative government. Their relationship has not always been an easy one and it remains to be seen whether the old warhorse can be prevailed upon by their many mutual, and influential, friends to give his paternal blessing.
Harper is another matter. His disdain not only for Charest but for all that he represents is a matter of record. Harper scuppered the Progressive Conservatives because they were an anathema. The mushy middle is not for him. Harper is unlikely to remain silent, especially if it appears that Charest has a chance of beating Poilievre.
Almost as influential will be former Progressive Conservative leader Peter MacKay. He represents a younger generation and has had to sit this one out, having thus far been unable to repay his debt from his last run. He was the other side of the deal with Harper that gave us the newly minted Conservatives.
MacKay remains a force within the Party and his pronouncements are going to be studied for any hint of support for one candidate or another.
Harper has remained very loyal to MacKay, going so far as to help him fundraise to repay that campaign debt. If they were to wind up at loggerheads, it would be seen a a reversion to the status quo ante of Reform/Alliance versus PC’s and all bets would be off as to the future of the party.
Another major leadership candidate, Patrick Brown scored a major coup when he received the backing of highly respected MP Michelle Rempel Garner. Deeply experienced, brilliant in debate and highly personable, she will bring a lot to his campaign. She can be expected to help Brown with his communications lines and in debate prep.
Brown considers Charest one of his political mentors and he will not be the type to join in the predictable attacks against Charest’s spotty record on integrity issues. He will be playing to win, however and although their second choice votes will be largely interchangeable, Brown could well wind up selling more new memberships than Charest. This could ultimately mean that Charest’s votes would go over to Brown.
I’ve known Charest for decades and have a better understanding than most about his weaknesses and strengths. He doesn’t have Poilievre’s youth or energy but he is deeply experienced.
Tuesday’s agreement between Trudeau and Singh would put the next federal election in October 2025.
It creates a double advantage for Poilievre. He gets to slag the Liberals for turning "hard left" and, if he wins, he gets three years to hone his pitch in the House and prepare.
I’m sure Charest quickly understood what the Liberal-NDP agreement meant for him. I’m willing to bet the Liberal braintrust took it into account when they pushed for this deal.
Charest doesn’t even have a seat in the House. He’d be stuck spending three and a half years roaming the hallways like Banquo’s ghost. Not a great career plan for someone banking on a quick shot at becoming PM. He’s an incredible campaigner and no one should count him out, but this isn’t what he’d bargained for.
With Poilievre’s early lead, after bursting first out of the starting blocks, Charest has a lot of catching up to do. He’d have to sell 1,000 memberships a day if he hopes to win. A tall order.
Charest has won elections by doggedly catching up with heavily favoured adversaries and doesn’t mind being likened to the "tortoise" in the well-known fable. “Lièvre” it should be remembered, is the French word for "hare," after all…
Tom Mulcair was the leader of the federal New Democratic Party of Canada between 2012 and 2017.
IN DEPTH
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
'Democracy requires constant vigilance' Trudeau testifies at inquiry into foreign election interference in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified Wednesday before the national public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's electoral processes, following a day of testimony from top cabinet ministers about allegations of meddling in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Recap all the prime minister had to say.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Liberal MP says she's leaving politics over disrespectful dialogue, threats, misogyny
Liberal MP Pam Damoff says she won't run again in the next federal election, saying she has experienced misogyny, disrespectful dialogue in politics and threats to her life.
Concerns about Plexiglass prompt inspections at some Loblaws locations in Ottawa
Inspections are underway at more than one Loblaws location in Ottawa after complaints were filed about tall Plexiglass barriers.
Federal employees will be required to spend 3 days a week in the office
Starting in September, public servants in the core public administration will be required to work in the office a minimum of three days a week. The Treasury Board Secretariat says executives will need to be in the office four days per week.
OPP officer said 'someone's going to get hurt' before wrong-way Hwy. 401 crash
As multiple Durham police cruisers were chasing a robbery suspect on the wrong side of Highway 401 Monday night, an Ontario Provincial Police officer shared his concerns, telling a dispatcher, "Someone's going to get hurt."
Ont. woman who faked pregnancy to defraud doulas arrested again on similar charges
Victims of a Brantford, Ont., woman who was sentenced to house arrest earlier this year for defrauding and deceiving doulas say they’re not surprised she’s been apprehended again on similar charges.
Five human skeletons, missing hands and feet, found outside house of Nazi leader Hermann Göring
Archeologists have unearthed the skeletons of five people, missing their hands and feet, at a former Nazi military base in Poland.
Poilievre returns to House unrepentant for calling Trudeau 'wacko,' Speaker not resigning
An unrepentant Pierre Poilievre returned to the House of Commons on Wednesday to pepper the prime minister about his drug decriminalization policies after being booted the day prior for refusing to take back calling Justin Trudeau 'wacko' over his approach to the issue.
Construction begins on LGBTQ2S+ national monument in Ottawa
Shovels have hit the ground for constuction on Canada's LGBTQ2S+ national monument in Ottawa.
B.C. man awarded $5,000 in damages in first-of-it-kind intimate image case
In a first-of-its-kind case, a B.C. tribunal has ruled on a dispute involving the non-consensual sharing of intimate images, awarding damages and issuing orders that the photos be destroyed and taken offline.
Local Spotlight
Here's how one of Sask.'s largest power plants was knocked out for 73 days, and what it took to fix it
A group of SaskPower workers recently received special recognition at the legislature – for their efforts in repairing one of Saskatchewan's largest power plants after it was knocked offline for months following a serious flood last summer.
Quebec police officer anonymously donates kidney, changes schoolteacher's life
A police officer on Montreal's South Shore anonymously donated a kidney that wound up drastically changing the life of a schoolteacher living on dialysis.
Canada's oldest hat store still going strong after 90 years
Since 1932, Montreal's Henri Henri has been filled to the brim with every possible kind of hat, from newsboy caps to feathered fedoras.
Road closed in Oak Bay, B.C., so elephant seal can cross
Police in Oak Bay, B.C., had to close a stretch of road Sunday to help an elephant seal named Emerson get safely back into the water.
B.C. breweries take home awards at World Beer Cup
Out of more than 9,000 entries from over 2,000 breweries in 50 countries, a handful of B.C. brews landed on the podium at the World Beer Cup this week.
Kitchener family says their 10-year-old needs life-saving drug that cost $600,000
Raneem, 10, lives with a neurological condition and liver disease and needs Cholbam, a medication, for a longer and healthier life.
Haida Elder suing Catholic Church and priest, hopes for 'healing and reconciliation'
The lawyer for a residential school survivor leading a proposed class-action defamation lawsuit against the Catholic Church over residential schools says the court action is a last resort.
'It was instant karma': Viral video captures failed theft attempt in Nanaimo, B.C.
Mounties in Nanaimo, B.C., say two late-night revellers are lucky their allegedly drunken antics weren't reported to police after security cameras captured the men trying to steal a heavy sign from a downtown business.
Fergus, Ont. man feels nickel-and-dimed for $0.05 property tax bill
A property tax bill is perplexing a small townhouse community in Fergus, Ont.