'Recoil effect': New Nanos polling shows Liberals may be out of majority territory
Anticipation that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will trigger an election on Sunday has resulted in a “recoil effect” in the Liberals' ballot numbers, possibly moving them out of majority territory, according a survey conducted by Nanos Research.
The survey completed on Thursday night suggests that as the summer-long speculation of an election call shifted towards it looking more certain that Canadians are on the verge of being sent to the polls, voters have been swinging away from the Liberals.
“The latest Nanos tracking that was just completed on Thursday night, suggests that there has been a significant recoil effect against the Liberals. This hot speculation about an election has shifted voters from the Liberal column to the Conservative column, probably because they are upset about the fact that there is an election,” said Nanos Research's Nik Nanos in an interview with CTV News on Friday.
On Thursday sources confirmed to CTV News that Trudeau is expected to launch a federal election campaign on Aug. 15, with the vote set to be held as early as Sept. 20, with those who confirmed the planning indicating that it is still possible that the prime minister could adjust his plans.
When the news broke, Nanos said his daily tracking had the Liberals with “a double digit advantage.”
Now, while the Liberals are still leading in the polls, with 33.4 per cent ballot support, should the election call come this weekend, Nanos said that Trudeau will need a strong answer on day one of the campaign as to why an election is needed now.
“Was there something that you were not able to do?... There's no crisis to merit the triggering of an election, except for the fact that the Liberals want an election. And I think Canadians will probably see through that,” Nanos said.
The survey indicates that Liberal ballot support has dropped by 5.9 per cent from where it was four weeks ago.
The Conservatives appear to have made up some ground in that time, with 28.4 per cent ballot support, up 4.8 per cent from where they were four weeks ago.
“We're in a horse race now. It's no longer about whether the Liberals will win, and if they'll win a majority government. Now it's who will win this election?” Nanos said.
The support for the other four major parties has not shifted as considerably in the last month. The NDP have 20.7 per cent ballot support, the Greens have 7.9 per cent ballot support, the Bloc Quebecois has 6.3 per cent ballot support, and the People’s Party has 1.9 per cent of ballot support.
Nanos said that if this election becomes about Trudeau’s decision to call an early election in order to win a majority—which has widely been suggested a key motivating factor for the Liberals to trigger an election now—“it’ll be bad news for the Liberals.”
Polls conducted over the summer from various public opinion outlets signalled that the Liberals could be within reach of a majority government if a vote was held soon. Though, folks have expressed little enthusiasm to go to the polls, with the COVID-19 case counts once again on an upward trajectory.
Nanos said that had Trudeau called the election a bit earlier, they could have entered the campaign in a more secure electoral standing.
NANOS’ METHODOLOGY
Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land-and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,004 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, ending Aug. 13, 2021.
The data is based on a four week rolling average where each week the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 is added.
A random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
IN DEPTH
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
'Democracy requires constant vigilance' Trudeau testifies at inquiry into foreign election interference in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified Wednesday before the national public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's electoral processes, following a day of testimony from top cabinet ministers about allegations of meddling in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Recap all the prime minister had to say.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
'Most of the city is evacuating': Gridlock on Alberta highway after evacuation order in Fort McMurray
Four Fort McMurray neighbourhoods were ordered to evacuate on Tuesday as a wildfire gets closer to the city.
Sask. police seize 1.5M pieces of evidence, lay 60 more charges in child exploitation case
Saskatchewan RCMP have revealed that a historic sexual assault investigation has led to the discovery of alleged crimes against children dating back to 2005.
'Inappropriate' behaviour shuts down Dublin to New York City portal
Less than a week after two public sculptures featuring a livestream between Dublin, Ireland, and New York City debuted, 'inappropriate behaviour' in real-time interactions between people in the two cities has prompted a temporary shutdown.
Oilers starting Calvin Pickard in goal for Game 4 vs. Canucks
The Edmonton Oilers will start Calvin Pickard in net Tuesday for Game 4 of their playoff series with the Vancouver Canucks.
Biden administration moving ahead on US$1 billion arms package for Israel, AP sources say
The Biden administration has told key lawmakers it is sending a new package of more than US$1 billion in arms and ammunition to Israel, two congressional aides said Tuesday.
King Charles III unveils his first official portrait since his coronation
King Charles III has unveiled the first portrait of the monarch completed since he assumed the throne, a vivid image that depicts him in the bright red uniform of the Welsh Guards against a background of similar hues.
Full List Are these Canada's best restaurants? Annual top 100 list revealed
The annual list of Canada's top restaurants in the country was just released and here are the places that made the 2024 cut.
Alberta announces the 4 health agencies that will replace AHS later this year
The province has released more information on its plan to break up Alberta Health Services and replace it with four sector-based health agencies.
Maximum payout for LifeLabs class-action drops from $150 estimate to $7.86
Canadian LifeLabs customers who filed an application for a class-action settlement began receiving their payments this week, though at a much lower amount than initially expected.
Local Spotlight
'We're on standby': Team ready to help entangled right whale in Gulf of St. Lawrence
A team is ready to help an entangled North Atlantic right whale in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.
Thieves caught on camera stealing pet chicken from North Vancouver backyard
A $200 reward is being offered by a North Vancouver family for the safe return of their beloved chicken, Snowflake.
Adopted daughter in the Netherlands reunited with sister in Montreal and mother in Colombia, 40 years later
Two daughters and a mother were reunited online 40 years later thanks to a DNA kit and a Zoom connection despite living on three separate continents and speaking different languages.
'Reimagining Mother's Day': Toronto woman creates Motherless Day event after losing mom
Mother's Day can be a difficult occasion for those who have lost or are estranged from their mom.
Chris Hadfield inspires youth musical in Sudbury
YES Theatre Young Company opened its acclaimed kids’ show, One Small Step, at Sudbury Theatre Centre on Saturday.
Ottawa pizzeria places among top 20 deep-dish pizzas in the world at international competition
An Ottawa pizzeria is being recognized as one of the top 20 deep-dish pizzas in the world.
From outer space? Sask. farmers baffled after discovering strange wreckage in field
A family of fifth generation farmers from Ituna, Sask. are trying to find answers after discovering several strange objects lying on their land.
Wilfrid Laurier football player drafted despite only playing 27 games in his entire life
A Listowel, Ont. man, drafted by the Hamilton Tigercats last week, is also getting looks from the NFL, despite only playing 27 games of football in his life.
Federal government bans watercraft from Manitoba lake popular with tourists
The threat of zebra mussels has prompted the federal government to temporarily ban watercraft from a Manitoba lake popular with tourists.