Predictions for Trudeau, Poilievre and the other federal leaders in the New Year: Nanos
In CTV News Trend Line's last episode of 2022, pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle discuss Canada's major federal parties – what moved the needle for them this year, and what do they have to look forward to in 2023?
LIBERALS
With another pandemic-laden year that began with the convoy protests, the Liberals faced significant challenges in their efforts to advance their agenda in 2022. "I don't want to use the word excuse, but there is a reason why the Liberals have not been able to deliver and focus on their agenda," said Nanos, "because there (were) other events, massive events that have overtaken that."
But with the next federal election coming in 2025 (or sooner), the clock is ticking, and Nanos said they're going to want to try to deliver on some of the items on their agenda.
"Two words in terms of the prediction for 2023 for the Liberals: Hunger Games," said Nanos, referring to speculation on whether Justin Trudeau will stay on as Liberal Party leader, and the jockeying within cabinet and caucus amongst possible contenders for the job. "Does Justin Trudeau still have the fire in his belly to continue and fight another election?" asked Nanos.
While Trudeau has told his cabinet he intends to run, "he has to say that, because he can't be a lame duck leader and a lame duck prime minister," said Nanos. "But people, I think, will be putting him under the microscope, watching and listening to everything that he says and does to see if there are any signals as to his future staying on as the leader of the Liberal Party, or perhaps not staying on."
This could result in a year of some prominent Liberals "awkwardly" positioning themselves for a leadership bid, while still being loyal to Trudeau, according to Nanos.
CONSERVATIVES
The Conservatives were competitive throughout the year with the Liberals in Nanos' weekly national ballot tracking. Since January, the parties were either trading leads or were neck and neck for extended periods, with the Conservatives opening up a small but sustained lead that lasted over a month after Pierre Poilievre was crowned leader in September.
The parties were statistically tied a few weeks ago, but the Conservatives have opened up a four-point lead in latest tracking on Dec. 9.
Nanos' prediction for the Conservatives in 2023 is a "big focus" on fundraising, on efforts to build up their organization and a "new machinery for the election."
"Don't underestimate Pierre Poilievre. He's excellent at communicating, but he also knows what needs to be done to win elections," said Nanos, who added that the Conservative leader will continue to attack the Liberals and institutions such as the Bank of Canada, as well as the media.
"And he will use those attacks to be red meat to core Conservatives to open up their wallets, to build the war chest so that Pierre Poilievre can have all the resources at his disposal to challenge the federal Liberals."
NDP
Nanos said the fact the NDP was able to maintain ballot support hovering in the 20s throughout the year is "usually good news for the New Democrats and bad news for the Liberals" because of vote splits. But the existential question for the party remains whether they can keep supporting and propping up the Liberals with their confidence-and-supply agreement.
Just this week, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said he's ready to withdraw from the deal reached in March -- a deal in which his party agreed to support the Liberals on key House of Commons votes to avoid triggering an election before 2025 -- if the Liberals fail to address the crisis in our health-care system.
This kind of jockeying will continue in 2023, said Nanos, when the NDP are going to have to decide what they're ready to push the Liberals on. "They've got their dental plan. What else are they going to ask as part of the agreement with the Liberals? How are they going to weather the storm that will happen at some point," said Nanos.
"How are they going to weather the next crisis that might not look well on the Liberals, with the New Democrats looking like the party that is propping up a government that is going through turbulence in 2023?"
For the rest of Nanos' analysis on the Green Party and Bloc Quebecois, and for the full Trend Line episode, hit play in our video player above or listen to it below in our podcast player.
CTV News Trend Line will return after the holidays on Jan. 18, 2023.
IN DEPTH
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
'Democracy requires constant vigilance' Trudeau testifies at inquiry into foreign election interference in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified Wednesday before the national public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's electoral processes, following a day of testimony from top cabinet ministers about allegations of meddling in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Recap all the prime minister had to say.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Guilty: Trump becomes first former U.S. president convicted of felony crimes
Donald Trump became the first former American president to be convicted of felony crimes Thursday as a New York jury found him guilty of all 34 charges in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through a hush money payment to a porn actor who said the two had sex.
Can Trump come to Canada now that he's a convicted felon?
A Canadian immigration lawyer says now that Donald Trump is a convicted felon, he is technically barred from crossing the border into Canada.
Montreal tech billionaire charged with several sex offences
Robert Miller was charged Thursday with several sexual assault charges after Montreal police reopened an investigation into the tech billionaire.
Police: 3 killed, including suspected gunman, in Minneapolis shooting
Three people, including the suspected gunman, are dead after a shooting Thursday at a Minneapolis apartment complex, police said.
'Why didn't they stop?' Mom asks of driver in hit-and-run crash that killed son
The mother of a 13-year-old boy who was killed in a hit-and-run in Edmonton is begging the driver to come forward.
The northern lights are returning to night skies across Canada this Friday
If you missed the brilliant displays of the aurora borealis over North America on May 10, you may have another chance to see them on Friday night.
A pair enjoyed pricey meals and bolted when it was time to pay. Their dine and dash ended in jail
A Welsh couple who dined out on pricey meals and bolted when the bill came is now paying the price, behind bars.
$400K in damages for B.C. woman who had unnecessary mastectomy was 'inordinately high,' court finds
A jury's award of $400,000 to a woman who had a mastectomy after being misdiagnosed with breast cancer has been substantially reduced by B.C.'s highest court, which found the damages were "wholly disproportionate."
Local Spotlight
Video shows driver in Toronto frantically getting out of car being pushed by truck
A CP24 camera caught the moment a driver frantically got out of her car as it was being dragged by a truck on Avenue Road Wednesday afternoon.
Prince Edward Island celebrates first-ever International Day of Potato
Prince Edward Island is celebrating its first-ever International Day of Potato on Thursday.
'Bigger and better and stronger than ever': Covered Bridge Chips president sets sights for late 2025 rebuild after fire
The president of Covered Bridge Chips in New Brunswick is hoping to have his factory rebuilt for late 2025 following a devastating fire last year.
Winnipeg high school helps lead ducks that nested in courtyard to water
Students and staff at Winnipeg’s Westwood Collegiate had a unique problem to solve this month; how do you lead ducks to water from the school’s courtyard when 12 of them can’t fly yet?
Questions and concerns remain after space junk lands in Saskatchewan
Debby Lorinczy remembers her father as an amazing person and as a man who also made an amazing discovery.
Ski jumper Abigail Strate getting a buzz out of working with bees
Abigail Strate is a member of the Canadian national ski jumping team and an Olympic bronze medallist. She's also a certified beekeeper.
Oilers superfan hopeful Edmonton wins so he can get his massive Stanley Cup tattoo retouched
It's been a long time coming, but one Oilers superfan is hoping this will be the year he gets to touch up his massive Stanley Cup back tattoo.
WATCH Alta. man rescues wild foal trapped on steep cliffside
A man's daring rescue of a newborn wild foal that was trapped after falling down a steep embankment was caught on video over the weekend.
'Forgot how fun this was': Winnipeg man competing in World Pinball Championship
A Winnipeg pinball wizard is heading to the granddaddy of them all – the IFPA World Pinball Championship.