On famous Trudeau anniversary, no snow, or resignation, in prime minister's forecast
![Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Prime Minister Justin Trudeau makes an announcement in Membertou First Nation on Cape Breton Island, N.S., Thursday, Feb. 22, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darren Calabrese](/content/dam/ctvnews/en/images/2024/2/29/prime-minister-justin-trudeau-1-6788817-1709207477437.jpg)
The famous "walk in the snow" that purportedly spurred Pierre Trudeau's departure as prime minister 40 years ago has taken on such mythical proportions in Canadian politics that it even has its own Wikipedia entry.
"Noun. (Canada, chiefly politics, idiomatic). An occasion when a momentous career decision is made, especially a decision to resign or retire."
Some consider it an apocryphal story: Trudeau, confronted with the reality of a resurgent Conservative party, made up his mind to step down while strolling through a blizzard on Feb. 28, 1984.
Might not his footsteps-following son — facing strikingly similar electoral math — opt to follow suit?
Those closest to him are clear: not a chance.
If the prime minister was resigning, one Liberal insider said, using decidedly unparliamentary language to emphasize the point, there's no way he would do it on the same day as his father.
There's no snow in the Ottawa forecast, noted another. In fact, on the very anniversary itself Wednesday, it poured rain.
No one in Trudeau's inner circle was willing to speak publicly about the subject, lest it be taken as a message to the man himself. But veterans of political life, those who have seen up close how leaders wrestle with such dilemmas, say it often comes down to two things: how likely they are to win again, and whether they accomplished their goals.
Sometimes, it can be both.
There's no denying the parallels: A Liberal establishment, long in the tooth and down in the polls, faced with a difficult economic climate, inflation woes and a fresh-faced opponent with all the momentum.
It's even a leap year, just like in 1984.
But Trudeau has long dismissed, even mocked, the suggestion that he's done.
He's been stalking the starting line for months, anxious to defend his track record against Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre — his political and ideological antithesis, who sits atop a groundswell of popular momentum.
He would "bring us back to, 'Drill, baby, drill,' ignore climate change, bring us back to 'Father is the head of the household,'" Trudeau said of Poilievre last year in an interview with friend and former radio host Terry DiMonte.
"It's that kind of thinking that is really putting at threat everything we’ve been able as a country to build over the past years."
If an election were held today, polls suggest Trudeau's time in power would end. But with his party's agreement with the New Democrats, he could govern for another year and a half.
Few leaders decide on a whim that it's time to go, said former Manitoba Premier Gary Doer, who stepped down from his job in 2009 two years into his third majority government.
From the moment he first sat in the premier's chair, the plan was always to leave before being pushed, Doer said.
"You're always thinking of your legacy," he said.
"You're trying to define as much as possible your own legacy, because God knows there's lots of pundits who will try and define it for you the minute you step down."
Doer's final decision came when then-prime minister Stephen Harper approached him about becoming Canada's ambassador in Washington. Timing is always key but not always in your control, he said.
On the other hand, if the time has indeed arrived, the world can't know it, Doer added.
"The minute you announce that you're not running, you become weak and the media and public's focus just shifts right away to who's going to replace you," he said. "It's almost instantaneous."
That means Trudeau is running again until he decides he's not. Even speculation with close cabinet colleagues about the possibility of a future resignation could easily leak and create havoc, the insiders said.
There is, of course, lots of chatter about his would-be successor. But within the party itself, there are no hands on his back. Cabinet ministers weary of deflecting the question have settled on their message.
"We (already) have a leader," Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland told a recent news conference in Ottawa as her fellow ministers all nodded enthusiastically in agreement.
Stepping down in defeat is more common than leaving while in office. Of the 22 prime ministers who held the office before Justin Trudeau, 12 resigned their post after losing an election.
Two died in office, including Canada's first prime minister John A. Macdonald. Macdonald resigned as prime minister once, but stayed on as the leader of his party, and was re-elected as prime minister four years later.
Of the eight that stepped away of their own accord from both their party's leadership and the prime minister's post, three cited declining health, not a political motive.
For the other five, they left when they were ready to go.
Pierre Trudeau had been prime minister for more than 15 years total when he took his walk in the snow. If his flair for the dramatic made the decision seem like a spur-of-the-moment one, it was decidedly not.
In fact, it was carefully calculated, said Raymond Blake, a history professor at the University of Regina who is about to publish a new book on the speeches of Canada's prime ministers.
"Everyone knew he was going to resign but of course he had to do it on the 29th, in a leap year," Blake said.
"It was very much planned. He could have resigned on the 28th or the first of March. But that mystique, that celebrity, means you can't do it on a day any mere mortal would."
More typically, there's not much suspense before it happens.
When Brian Mulroney announced his exit in February 1993 after nearly nine years in office, he looked like a man who'd lost the vigour for the job.
In a journal entry published in Mulroney's book, "Memoirs," he said it was long before he lost the constitutional referendum in 1992 that he had decided against leading the Tories in the next campaign.
The reason, he wrote in January 1993, about two months before the announcement, was simple.
"If you run again and win, either a majority or a minority government, what do you want to achieve? And my answer simply is, 'more of the same,'" he wrote.
"I do not believe that honest answer to be adequate, so I will step aside."
When it happened, polls showed the Conservatives with just 21 per cent public support, compared with 49 per cent for the Liberals under Jean Chrétien.
Chrétien also left before losing an election, midway through his third majority government. He was facing a revolt from Paul Martin and Martin's supporters. But he had decided by the time of the 2000 election not to seek a fourth term.
It wouldn't be made public for another two years, and he would stay in the office for another 15 months before Martin was ultimately elected as the leader to replace him.
In January, in an interview with CTV, Chrétien said the decision to leave is a very "personal" one.
If there are any commonalities among leaders who choose to leave, Doer said, it's that they need to do it on their own terms, when they feel the time is right.
"There's not a politician that doesn't watch what happens to other politicians and how they make the transition," he said.
"And not just how, but when."
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 29, 2024.
IN DEPTH
![](https://www.ctvnews.ca/polopoly_fs/1.6922467.1718138898!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_800/image.jpg)
'Not the result we wanted': Trudeau responds after surprise Conservative byelection win in Liberal stronghold
Conservative candidate Don Stewart winning the closely-watched Toronto-St. Paul's federal byelection, and delivering a stunning upset to Justin Trudeau's candidate Leslie Church in the long-time Liberal riding, has sent political shockwaves through both parties.
'We will go with the majority': Liberals slammed by opposition over proposal to delay next election
The federal Liberal government learned Friday it might have to retreat on a proposal within its electoral reform legislation to delay the next vote by one week, after all opposition parties came out to say they can't support it.
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
![](https://www.ctvnews.ca/polopoly_fs/1.6850735.1713368648!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_800/image.jpg)
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
![](https://www.ctvnews.ca/polopoly_fs/1.6972157.1721587842!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_800/image.jpg)
Joe Biden drops out of 2024 race, endorses Kamala Harris to be Democratic nominee
U.S. President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race for the White House on Sunday, ending his bid for re-election after doubts were raised about his fitness for office. Soon after, he endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris to take his place in the November election.
Justin Trudeau reacts to Joe Biden announcing he won't run for re-election
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded to the news that U.S. President Joe Biden won’t run for re-election Sunday, calling Biden a 'true friend.'
Joe Biden wants to pass the baton to Kamala Harris. Here's how that might work
With U.S. President Joe Biden ending his re-election bid and endorsing Vice-President Kamala Harris, Democrats now must navigate a shift that is unprecedented this late in an election year.
The pilot who died in crash after releasing skydivers near Niagara Falls has been identified
NEW YORK (AP) — Officials on Sunday released the name of a pilot who died in a skydiving flight after her passengers jumped from the aircraft near the Niagara Falls.
Woman found dead in the water near Sunset Beach: Vancouver police
Investigators were at Vancouver’s Sunset Beach after a woman’s body was found in the water Sunday morning, according to authorities.
Ottawa man waiting nearly a year for car to be fixed at Acura dealership
An Ottawa man says he’s been waiting nearly a year for his car to be repaired after it was damaged during a storm in August.
Canadian musicians struggle to get visas to perform in the U.S., some cancel shows
Backlogs and processing delays of temporary U.S. visas required by entertainers, athletes and artists has forced some Canadian bands to cancel U.S. tour dates because paperwork wasn't processed in time.
Joy in Newfoundland after 'Lucky 7' fishers survive harrowing days lost at sea
There was a powerful word being repeated in the joyful Newfoundland community of New-Wes-Valley on Sunday: 'Miracle.'
A Florida woman was killed 24 years ago. DNA evidence just helped police make an arrest in the cold case
A Florida woman’s brutal killing nearly 25 years ago may finally be solved after authorities arrested the suspect this week, according to the Sanford Police Department.
Local Spotlight
![](https://www.ctvnews.ca/polopoly_fs/1.6971740.1721505533!/httpImage/image.jpeg_gen/derivatives/landscape_800/image.jpeg)
‘It looks scary, but they’re harmless’: Bees removed from Winnipeg street light
A swarm of bees living in a lamppost in Winnipeg’s Sage Creek neighbourhood has found a new home for its hive.
'Powerful symbol of the progress we have made': Land being returned to Manitoba Métis Federation
Around 100 acres of Manitoba Crown Land near the Saskatchewan border is being returned to the Métis community.
Cape Breton moose hunting suspended for 3 years due to 'significant' drop in population
Nova Scotia is suspending the licensed Cape Breton moose hunt for three years due to what the province is calling a “significant drop” in the population.
What Canadian dog owners need to know before crossing the border
Canadian pet owners visiting the United States will soon have to follow new rules, including requiring their dogs be microchipped.
Social media prank could lead to charges after teens allegedly damage homes
A well-known childhood prank known as 'nicky nicky nine doors,' or 'ding dong ditch,' has escalated into a more serious game that could lead to charges for some Surrey, B.C. teens.
Benefit concert to be held for N.B. teen badly injured in 'freak accident'
It's been more than a month since their good friend was seriously hurt in an accident and two teens from Riverview, N.B., are still having a hard time dealing with it.
Here's what happens to rejected Halifax bridge coins
Halifax bridges have collected thousands of coins from around the world.
Video shows B.C. grizzly basking in clawfoot tub
A donated clawfoot bathtub has become the preferred lounging spot for a pair of B.C. grizzly bears, who have been taking turns relaxing and reclining in it – with minimal sibling squabbling – for the past year.
Cemetery 'investigators' connecting families with forgotten gravestones
A pair of cemetery investigators are cleaning and preserving as many gravestones they have permission to work on, as they conduct their research and document gravestones.