Nanos projections show Poilievre's Conservatives winning more seats than Trudeau's Liberals
If an election were to be held today, the Conservative Party would win more seats than the Liberals, the latest seat projections from Nanos Research show.
In the last two federal elections, the Conservatives edged out the Liberals on the popular vote but failed to win the most seats, allowing Justin Trudeau to form consecutive minority governments.
"You know, in the past, the Conservatives have led but haven't been efficient at converting into seats. But now in the latest Nanos seat projections that we have, we actually have the Conservatives winning more seats than the Liberals, which means there would be a chance of not just a Liberal defeat, but of the Conservatives having a chance to form a government," said Nanos Research's Nik Nanos on the latest episode of Trend Line.
While a federal election is unlikely anytime soon, given that the Liberals and the NDP have a governing deal until 2025, the seat projections show the Conservatives winning 108 seats if an election was held today, compared to 106 seats for the Liberals. Much of this has to do with the Conservative Party's projected performance around the Greater Toronto Area, where the Liberals have previously dominated.
The projections also show the NDP winning 41 seats, the Bloc Quebecois winning 24 and the Greens winning 2.
Nanos added that there are 57 ridings that are too close to call.
Some of these suburban ridings around Toronto, such as those in Oakville and Burlington, had been considered "traditionally very strong" ridings for the Liberals in the last two elections, Nanos said. But the projections now suggest these ridings are leaning Conservative or too close to call.
Results of 2021 federal election in Ontario (GTA) (Nanos Research)
Current Nanos modelling shows seat projections in GTA, with grey ridings too close to call within 7%; black too close to call within 2% (Nanos Research)
"The big game changer here is that the Conservatives are doing better in Ontario than they have in the past, and as a result, it's yielding more seats," Nanos said.
"If you are Justin Trudeau or an adviser to Justin Trudeau, you've got to be thinking, 'Oh boy.' There are some ridings at risk that are traditionally Liberal ridings. You have to be very careful on what happens in the next couple of years."
The projections also show the NDP picking up more seats. In the last three elections, the NDP has been shut out of Toronto, but now, some of the downtown ridings are projected to go orange.
Nanos believes the Liberals are in dire need of renewal if they want to win the next election amid growing concerns over the impact of inflation and the potential for a recession.
"I think they have to kind of renew their mission and vision for that for the country, and basically explain why they deserve another mandate. So expect them to do some renewal," he said. "If they don't do renewal and just think that they can do what they've done in the last few years, I'm not sure that's going to work."
You can find a new episode of Trend Line every second Wednesday on CTVNews.ca, YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts
Correction
This article previously stated there were 67 ridings that were too close to call. It has been corrected to state 57 ridings are too close to call, according to Nanos Research.
IN DEPTH
'Not the result we wanted': Trudeau responds after surprise Conservative byelection win in Liberal stronghold
Conservative candidate Don Stewart winning the closely-watched Toronto-St. Paul's federal byelection, and delivering a stunning upset to Justin Trudeau's candidate Leslie Church in the long-time Liberal riding, has sent political shockwaves through both parties.
'We will go with the majority': Liberals slammed by opposition over proposal to delay next election
The federal Liberal government learned Friday it might have to retreat on a proposal within its electoral reform legislation to delay the next vote by one week, after all opposition parties came out to say they can't support it.
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Alberta town takes action fighting crime, addressing homelessness, addictions issues
In Cold Lake, Alta., drivers leaning through windows at the McDonald’s drive-thru have been ambushed by people running by and snatching food right out of their hands.
Workplace habit of 'coffee badging' prompts reported new policy at Amazon
The term 'coffee badging' has gained some new significance this week with multiple outlets reporting Amazon is allegedly taking measures to counter the workplace trend it refers to.
Trudeau and family head to British Columbia for vacation in unnamed location
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will head to British Columbia on Sunday, where he will be on vacation with his family until Aug. 1.
Stranger sexually assaulted Surrey woman while she was asleep in her home, RCMP say
A woman in Surrey's Newton neighbourhood woke up to a stranger groping her early Saturday morning, according to local police.
Baby dies after pregnant woman fatally struck by vehicle in downtown Toronto
A woman fatally struck by a sedan in downtown Toronto earlier this week was pregnant, and her baby has also died, police say.
'I took a bullet for democracy': Trump holds first rally after assassination attempt
Donald Trump is holding his first campaign rally since he survived an attempted assassination, returning to the battleground state of Michigan alongside his new running mate.
Democratic consensus solidifies around Harris, should Biden step aside
No one quite knows what the process of picking a new nominee would be if Joe Biden did step aside – but many Democrats say that any process is likelier than ever to quickly end with Vice President Kamala Harris as the nominee.
A 12-year-old girl is accused of smothering her younger cousin over an iPhone
A 12-year-old girl in Tennessee has been charged with murder, accused of smothering her eight-year-old cousin as the younger girl slept. A relative said they had been arguing over an iPhone.
Here are the signs you're ready to downsize your home
Amid the cost-of-living crisis, many Canadians are looking to find ways to save money, such as downsizing their home. But one Ottawa broker says there are several signs to consider before making the big decision.
Local Spotlight
‘It looks scary, but they’re harmless’: Bees removed from Winnipeg street light
A swarm of bees living in a lamppost in Winnipeg’s Sage Creek neighbourhood has found a new home for its hive.
'Powerful symbol of the progress we have made': Land being returned to Manitoba Métis Federation
Around 100 acres of Manitoba Crown Land near the Saskatchewan border is being returned to the Métis community.
Cape Breton moose hunting suspended for 3 years due to 'significant' drop in population
Nova Scotia is suspending the licensed Cape Breton moose hunt for three years due to what the province is calling a “significant drop” in the population.
What Canadian dog owners need to know before crossing the border
Canadian pet owners visiting the United States will soon have to follow new rules, including requiring their dogs be microchipped.
Social media prank could lead to charges after teens allegedly damage homes
A well-known childhood prank known as 'nicky nicky nine doors,' or 'ding dong ditch,' has escalated into a more serious game that could lead to charges for some Surrey, B.C. teens.
Benefit concert to be held for N.B. teen badly injured in 'freak accident'
It's been more than a month since their good friend was seriously hurt in an accident and two teens from Riverview, N.B., are still having a hard time dealing with it.
Here's what happens to rejected Halifax bridge coins
Halifax bridges have collected thousands of coins from around the world.
Video shows B.C. grizzly basking in clawfoot tub
A donated clawfoot bathtub has become the preferred lounging spot for a pair of B.C. grizzly bears, who have been taking turns relaxing and reclining in it – with minimal sibling squabbling – for the past year.
Cemetery 'investigators' connecting families with forgotten gravestones
A pair of cemetery investigators are cleaning and preserving as many gravestones they have permission to work on, as they conduct their research and document gravestones.