Don Martin: Sooner or later in this status quo mandate, Justin Trudeau will take his walk in the snow
It might take a year or longer before it becomes clear to him, but Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will eventually realize he’s finished.
The freeze-framed results of last night’s pandemic election are just too much of a stain on his mediocre record to allow him to fight the next one.
Political leaders only get a fourth campaign shot when they are an undeniable party asset tracking toward a probable big win.
If the election proved anything amid the pointlessness of it all, it’s that Trudeau is a personal liability to his party who will bring rising tension to a fractured Parliament where three terms of rancour will fester anew among the same old, same old faces.
Complicating his ability to constructive governance is how his campaign strained national unity with attacks on premiers, stoked fear and loathing of those choosing not to vaccinate or rebelling against lockdowns and whipped up antagonism against those who hesitate to embrace his progressive policies.
So a snowy walk toward retirement in late 2022 or early 2023 is in play, even though he clearly wanted to cap his career with a majority win before heading off to pocket millions of consulting or speaking dollars in the private sector.
And if he doesn’t walk willingly, leader wannabes like deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney will undoubtedly give him a gentle push down the plank.
Now, while the torrents of laments over the monetary waste of Trudeau’s vanity vote will quickly become tiresome, we must pause to note that, at $300-million-per-gained Liberal seat, it’s an eyewatering waste of resources even by this government’s toss-money-around standards.
Someone better at math than me will likely crunch the numbers to find out how many boil water advisories could be lifted or vaccines procured or carbon-absorbing trees planted for the electoral price of procuring each additional seat in the Liberal lineup.
But I digress.
This election was mostly about leadership – and the leader referendum results are more interesting than the static seat count.
As I speculated, Justin Trudeau will leave even though his "victory" speech gave no hint of departing in this mandate. That’s hardly surprising. Only a fool would crack open the emergency exit door when you’ve just been re-elected prime minister.
But the bad look will linger on him in public mind and stew in the confines of his own caucus.
The public will find it hard to shake the self-possessed image Trudeau projected in calling an all-about-him vote as a fourth coronavirus wave went tidal and our Afghanistan allies huddled in ditches awaiting a Canadian rescue that didn’t arrive.
And by pointlessly pulling the parliamentary pin just a month before the rookie wave of Liberal MPs elected in 2015 would qualify for their pot-of-gold pension for life will not elevate loyalty levels in caucus.
Besides, Liberals surely know they were, above all other factors, simply lucky and that Justin Trudeau had little to do with them gaining seats.
The Conservatives lost more than a few ridings to a splintered vote with the People’s Party. The Liberals also put a few wins in their column in places where the Greens didn’t field a candidate. And Trudeau was gifted an issue from terminally-bloodied Alberta Premier Jason Kenney by connecting the Conservative consequences of going wide open to Erin O’Toole, who did himself no favours with a flaccid reaction to that province’s fourth wave emergency.
Speaking of O’Toole’s leadership, he now faces a struggle to continue leading a party confronting an identity crisis.
O’Toole shunned the harder-edged Harper-era ideology in favour of a kinder, gentler, bending-with-the-wind conservatism.
The result was an invigorated People’s Party threat on the far right and an erosion of seats in the Alberta heartland with no compensatory payoff in the moderate motherlode of Metro Toronto.
While that’s a devastating hit on his shove toward the political spectrum’s center and will undoubtedly lead to the madness of knives being sharpened for a back-stabbing take down, sanity must prevail and give him a second electoral chance.
Erin O’Toole is, after all, no disposable lightweight like Andrew Scheer.
And the unappetizing option of choosing between most-likely replacements like veteran MP Pierre Poilievre and impressive rookie Leslyn Lewis would merely serve up a fresh buffet of fear-factors for the Liberals to dine on.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh fell far short of expectations with no seat gains, but with star candidate Avi Lewis losing badly in B.C., there’s no prominent challenger to his likable force of personality. Bet heavily on him sticking around for the next electoral fight.
Finally, and sadly, Green party leader Annamie Paul must immediately resign. As a leader who could only field candidates in two-thirds of the ridings, admitted her presence would be a liability to her own candidates and finished a distant fourth in the Toronto riding she devoted her entire campaign to winning, well, voter repudiation simply doesn’t get any clearer than that.
Before signing off, a word about the hidden heroes of this election – the tens of thousands of voters who stood in hours-long lineups, in some cases long after the polls were closed and the results known, to cast their ballots.
This was an election without a compelling ballot box question called by a prime minister in the whimsical pursuit of greater power. And yet they defiantly persevered to participate.
An election about nothing proved something very heartening about our democracy. It’s stronger than our leaders.
That’s the bottom line
IN DEPTH
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
'Democracy requires constant vigilance' Trudeau testifies at inquiry into foreign election interference in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified Wednesday before the national public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's electoral processes, following a day of testimony from top cabinet ministers about allegations of meddling in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Recap all the prime minister had to say.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
A 'tragedy that can't be measured': North Bay's forever chemical problem is also the rest of Canada's
For decades, North Bay, Ontario's water supply has harboured chemicals associated with liver and developmental issues, cancer and complications with pregnancy. It's far from the only city with that problem.
opinion How to use your credit card as a powerful wealth-building tool
Irresponsibly using a credit card can land you in financial trouble, but personal finance columnist Christopher Liew says when used properly, it can be a powerful wealth-building tool that can help grow your credit profile and create new opportunities.
Swarm of 20,000 bees gather around woman’s car west of Toronto
A swarm of roughly 20,000 bees gathered around a woman’s car in the parking lot of Burlington Centre.
Which Canadian cities have the highest and lowest grocery prices?
Where you live plays a big factor in what you pay at the grocery store. And while it's no secret the same item may have a different price depending on the store, city or province, we wanted to see just how big the differences are, and why.
Questlove was not happy with Drake and Kendrick Lamar's beef: 'Nobody won the war'
While some may have been excited and/or amused by the diss-track feud between Drake and Kendrick Lamar, the man many consider to be an elder statesman of hip-hop appears less than enthused about it.
Trump heading to Jersey Shore to rally 'mega crowd' in weekend break from hush money trial
After a long week in court, Donald Trump is heading to the Jersey Shore. And his campaign says he'll be joined by "tens of thousands" of his friends.
For moms-to-be, it's possible to take maternity leave without breaking the bank
Pregnancy is often an exciting and anxious time for parents-to-be. And while painting the nursery and choosing a stroller are typically on the agenda, experts say preparing financially for a maternity leave can help reduce stress later on as well.
Bouchard lifts Edmonton Oilers to 4-3 overtime win over Canucks in Game 2
Evan Bouchard scored 5:38 into overtime and the Edmonton Oilers bounced back for a 4-3 win over the Vancouver Canucks in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs on Friday.
Fine dining, at a new high. A Michelin-starred chef will take his cuisine to our upper atmosphere
Six guests are set to ascend aboard Spaceship Neptune to the stratosphere, where they will enjoy an immersive dining experience served up by Danish Michelin-starred chef Rasmus Munk.
Local Spotlight
From outer space? Sask. farmers baffled after discovering strange wreckage in field
A family of fifth generation farmers from Ituna, Sask. are trying to find answers after discovering several strange objects lying on their land.
Wilfrid Laurier football player drafted despite only playing 27 games in his entire life
A Listowel, Ont. man, drafted by the Hamilton Tigercats last week, is also getting looks from the NFL, despite only playing 27 games of football in his life.
Toronto-area dessert shop featured by Keith Lee forced to move after zoning complaint
A small Ajax dessert shop that recently received a glowing review from celebrity food critic Keith Lee is being forced to move after a zoning complaint was made following the social media influencer’s visit last month.
'Oh Crap!' New exhibit at Canada Science and Technology Museum explores human waste
The Canada Science and Technology Museum is inviting visitors to explore their poop. A new exhibition opens at the Ottawa museum on Friday called, 'Oh Crap! Rethinking human waste.'
Regina police hope new biometric monitoring system will save lives in detention facility
The Regina Police Service says it is the first in Saskatchewan and possibly Canada to implement new technology in its detention facility that will offer real-time monitoring of detainees’ vital health metrics.
Vancouver and Edmonton's mayors bet on who will win Round 2 of the playoffs. Here's what's at stake
The stakes have been set for a bet between Vancouver and Edmonton's mayors on who will win Round 2 of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
'No other life taken': Mother leads ATV helmet drive to honour daughter's legacy
A grieving mother is hosting a helmet drive in the hopes of protecting children on Manitoba First Nations from a similar tragedy that killed her daughter.
Northern Ont. woman makes 'eggstraordinary' find
A chicken farmer near Mattawa made an 'eggstraordinary' find Friday morning when she discovered one of her hens laid an egg close to three times the size of an average large chicken egg.
P.E.I. lighthouse, N.B. river spotlighted in Canada Post series
A P.E.I. lighthouse and a New Brunswick river are being honoured in a Canada Post series.