Conservatives would likely win a majority if election held today: Nanos

If an election were to take place today, the federal Conservatives would capture enough seats in the House of Commons to form a majority government, new monthly projections from Nanos Research shows.

This data, coupled with the latest weekly ballot tracking numbers as well as Canadians' preferences on who they want as their prime minister, shows Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives have taken a commanding lead over Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals.

The latest ballot tracking from Nanos has the Conservatives with about 38 per cent support as of Sept. 29, an increase of 5.5 percentage points over the previous four weeks.

This appears to have come at the expense of the Liberals, who have seen their support drop five percentage points to 26.5 per cent in that time.

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The NDP gained half a percentage point in support and now sit at about 21 per cent, while the Bloc Quebecois dropped nearly a full percentage point to 6.2 per cent.

Support for the Greens remained unchanged at 5.7 per cent and the People's Party saw its vote share drop half a percentage point to two per cent.

"So the good news for the Conservatives is that if the election were held today, they would probably form a majority government," Nik Nanos, chief data scientist and founder of Nanos Research, said on the latest episode of CTV Trend Line.

"The bad news for the Conservatives, or maybe the good news for the Liberals, is that an election is not being held today. It'll be held sometime in the future. So, for the Conservatives, they want to hold on to this advantage and for the Liberals, they got to try to turn this trend line around."

The numbers reinforce the sustained lead that the Conservatives have had over the Liberals dating back to the summer.

It also comes amid the fallout of former Speaker Anthony Rota's recognition in the House of Commons – with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy present – of a Ukrainian veteran who fought for a Nazi unit during the Second World War.

"What we're seeing is a bump to the Conservatives and all that stuff that's been happening in the House of Commons has not been good for the Liberals," Nanos said. "Now, they're 11 points back and the Pierre (Poilievre) Conservatives are firmly in the driver's seat."

POILIEVRE MAKES GAINS AS PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

The Nanos tracking also shows how Canadians' preference for prime minister has changed, with Poilievre sitting at a more than nine-point lead over Justin Trudeau in that category.

A little more than 32 per cent of those polled preferred Poilievre as their prime minister, which is up nearly five percentage points from four weeks earlier.

Twenty-three per cent preferred Trudeau as prime minister, down 4.7 percentage points, while preference for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh as prime minister remained relatively unchanged at 15.6 per cent.

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"The big thing is that if the Liberals want to be competitive in the next election with Justin Trudeau as their leader, there needs to be a significant turnaround on these numbers and a remake in terms of vision, approach and renewal, like some energy," Nanos said.

"And they need a break because they haven't had a break, because everything's gone wrong for them that could go wrong. Perhaps something will go right for them. But right now on the leadership front, on the ballot numbers, the Liberal numbers are dismal and the Conservatives have a clear upper hand."

REGIONAL SUPPORT

When it comes to the number of federal ridings a party would win if an election were to be held today, and which ridings are close races today that were wins for Liberals in the previous election, the news becomes grimmer for the Liberals.

Current seat projections for Vancouver on left, versus 2021 federal election results on right (Nanos Research)

Nanos seat projections show some trouble for the Liberals in the Vancouver area, with a number of ridings in and around the city potentially up for grabs.

"Looks like Vancouver is now a major battleground," Nanos said. "The NDP still holding onto some seats and competitive in those seats. So I think the two parties to watch now in Vancouver will actually be the Conservatives and the New Democrats, with a number of Liberal seats at risk right in the Lower Mainland."

The Prairies remain largely blue, Nanos says, but the Liberals' two ridings in Edmonton and Calgary could be at risk.

Current seat projections for Greater Toronto Area on left, versus 2021 federal election results on right (Nanos Research)

The Liberal stronghold throughout the Greater Toronto Area may be vulnerable as well, with many ridings at play from a Conservative or NDP challenge.

At this point, Nanos does not expect much change in Quebec. But as evidenced by the NDP wave in 2011 under then-leader Jack Layton, voters in Quebec could move in a different direction quickly.

Current seat projections for Quebec on left, versus 2021 federal election results on right (Nanos Research)

And while the Maritime provinces have traditionally been regions where the Liberals do well, Nanos modelling has multiple ridings that could turn a different colour.

Current seat projections for Maritime provinces on left, versus 2021 federal election results on right (Nanos Research)

"What this shows is the Conservatives are poised to pick up seats in the Maritimes and that the Liberal members, although some of them might hold on, are basically in very tight races," Nanos said.

"They're in races for their lives to try to hold on to seats in the Maritimes and I think the big question is, how many seats will the Liberals lose in the Maritimes?"

The polling is based on random phone interviews with 1,127 Canadians aged 18 and older. The survey is done using a rolling average where each week the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group is added. The survey is accurate within 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts. The next episode comes out Wednesday, Oct. 18.