‘Amped up over Trump:’ U.S. president top issue to influence federal election vote, survey says

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, Friday, March 7, 2025. (Pool via AP)

A new Nanos Research survey released Sunday says U.S. President Donald Trump – and how to deal with him – is the top issue influencing how Canadians are voting in the next federal election.

The survey – done exclusively for CTV News – surveyed more than 1,000 Canadians, finding that 36 per cent of respondents said Trump is the most important issue to influence their vote. The economy followed closely in second, at 29 per cent.

“This speaks to a situation where Canadians are amped up over Trump and his threats to the Canadian economy,” Nanos Research Founder Nik Nanos said in a panel on CTV Question Period airing Sunday.

“We know those two things are intertwined, so you have to think of Trump and the economy driving how people will make their vote decision, basically two out of every three Canadians,” Nanos added.

According to the survey, issues like health care, housing and the environment fell well behind – all at five per cent or below.

Trump’s ongoing tariff and annexation threats also appear to be having an impact on federal voting intention.

Prior to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation and Trump’s inauguration, the Liberals consistently trailed the Conservatives in the polls by more than 20 points. But those numbers have shifted in several polls in recent weeks.

The latest Nanos Research survey – released March 4 – shows the Liberals trailing by just two points with the Conservatives at 36.5 per cent and the Liberals at 34.3 per cent.

“Trump is a fundamental reset on the ballot question for the upcoming federal election,” Nanos said.

“It’s not about what (Canadians) thought about the last 10 years, and whether they liked the Liberals or disliked the Liberals, or agreed or disagreed with the Liberals. It’s all going to be about judging the main choices when it comes to the economy, protecting Canada’s economic interests and dealing with Donald Trump,” Nanos added.

The Liberals are set to pick their new leader on Sunday, and there is speculation the new prime minister could call a snap election. Canadians are scheduled to go to the polls in October 2025, at the latest

Methodology

Nanos Research conducted a randomized telephone survey of roughly 1,000 Canadian adults between Feb. 28 and March 5. The margin of error is 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. This data is accurate to March 5, 2025.