New poll shows Ensemble Montréal in the lead, many voters still undecided

Campaign signs for mayor are seen in the Verdun borough of Montreal on Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2025. Municipal elections will be held on Sunday, Nov. 2, in Quebec. (Christinne Muschi/The Canadian Press)

A new poll from Pallas Data shows Ensemble Montréal’s Soraya Martinez Ferrada is leading the mayoral race, but a large number of voters are still undecided just days away from the election.

The Toronto-based firm surveyed some 600 voters in the city by phone last Saturday. One-third, 33 per cent, said they intend to cast their ballot for Martinez Ferrada.

Projet Montréal’s Luc Rabouin can count on the votes of 18 per cent of respondents.

However, another 29 per cent of respondents have yet to make up their minds.

Action Montréal’s Gilbert Thibodeau was polling at 11 per cent, Transition Montréal’s Craig Sauvé at five per cent and Futur Montréal’s Jean-François Kacou at three per cent.

• READ MORE: Despite trailing behind in polls, Montreal mayoral candidates are still hopeful

Ensemble Montréal is polling particularly well among those aged 50 and up and anglophones. The race is closer among younger people and francophones with a slight preference for Projet Montréal.

Pallas Data CEO Joseph Angolano says that, despite the high number of undecided voters, Ensemble has an advantage as those 50 and up tend to show up at the ballot box more than their younger counterparts.

However, he says the high number of undecided voters so close to election day in a major Canadian city is unusual.

“We don’t usually see that, so it doesn’t look like this campaign caught fire in the imagination of Montreal voters whatsoever,” he told CTV News.

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He says undecided rates usually are advantage for the incumbent party, but it’s not the case this year. He says the numbers show voters have been “tuning out.”

Still, he says, it’s still anyone’s game.

“It’s a municipal election, voter turnout always matters, who has the better machine, that’s a factor,” he said.

The Pallas Data poll has a four per cent margin of error.

Montrealers will decide their new administration on Sunday, Nov. 2. Voting will take place from 10 a.m. until 8 p.m.