This is what Canada will look like in 20 years – are we ready for an aging population?
Share
The rapid growth expected among Canada’s senior population in the coming years is one of the “most significant demographic trends” in the country’s history, says demographer Doug Norris. While this growth may present some challenges for younger generations, industry experts say it will also offer opportunities to pave the way for a better future.
Residents aged 65 and older are part of the fastest-growing age group in Canada today, said Norris, who is chief demographer at Environics Analytics, a marketing and analytical services company owned by Bell Canada. The company estimates that as of 2023, there are about 7.6 million people aged 65 and older in Canada. Many of these Canadians are part of the baby boomer generation, which includes those born from 1946 to 1964.
Based on recent immigration trends, data from a special analysis conducted by Environics Analytics for CTVNews.ca shows the senior population is expected to exceed 11 million people by 2043.
“Those numbers are really now at extremely high historical levels,” Norris told CTVNews.ca in a video interview. “(Baby boomers) are having a major impact on our society and our country.”
AT A GLANCE:
About one in four Canadians will be 65 years of age or older by 2043, according to an analysis performed by Environics Analytics for CTV News
Canada is home to nearly 13,500 centenarians, a 43 per cent increase compared to 2018, according to the latest data from Statistics Canada
Higher concentrations of seniors live in rural and suburban areas, particularly across Atlantic Canada and in Ontario and British Columbia. Of all the provinces and territories, Newfoundland and Labrador has the highest proportion of seniors in Canada, with 24.6 per cent of the population aged 65 and older as of 2023
According to industry experts, sectors such as health care, employment and housing are largely unprepared for an aging population, without the proper systems in place or equipment in hand to address the needs of seniors today. While this may present challenges in the years to come, opportunities will also arise for younger generations to fill the gaps left by an aging population, health, labour and housing experts say.
Estimates shared by Environics Analytics in April show that as of 2023, seniors make up 19.3 per cent of Canada’s total population. This age group outnumbers children under the age of 15, which make up 15.5 per cent of the population. In contrast, in 1971, eight per cent of Canada’s total population was aged 65 and older, while 30 per cent was under 15 years of age.
Contributing to Canada’s aging population is an increasing life expectancy. Statistics Canada data from 2022 shows the country is home to nearly 13,500 centenarians, a 43 per cent increase compared to 2018.
Additionally, Canada’s fertility rate is lower than the global average of 2.3 births per woman, according to data compiled by the United Nations Population Fund in 2021. Since 1980, Canada’s fertility rate has remained at an average of 1.6 births per woman. If this rate stays consistent, the number of seniors in Canada will remain relatively high in the years to come, reaching about 25 per cent of the population by 2043, according to Environics Analytics.
A CLOSER LOOK AT CANADA’S SENIOR POPULATION
Canada’s seniors are not a monolith, with variations in average income, living arrangements and more. This can be seen through the PRIZM segmentation system developed by Environics Analytics. With 67 unique profiles, Environics says this system offers a snapshot of the demographic data, lifestyles and values held by Canadians today, including those aged 65 and older.
SILVER FLATS
This is the oldest segment, largely made up of mature suburban singles and couples.
38.1 per cent of Canadians who fit this profile are aged 65 and older
Key neighbourhoods include those in mid-sized cities such as Sarnia and North Bay in Ontario
The oldest PRIZM segment, Silver Flats mostly includes mature suburban singles and couples.
SCENIC RETIREMENT
This PRIZM profile comprises a significant number of seniors, most of which are middle-income earners who live in suburban areas.
35.5 per cent of Canadians who fit this profile are seniors
Most of these seniors live in smaller cities and towns located outside of urban hubs, such as Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ont., and Courtenay, B.C.
The Scenic Retirement PRIZM profile includes many seniors who are middle-income earners living in suburban areas.
BACKCOUNTRY BOOMERS
A significant portion of Canadian seniors also live in rural areas. The Backcountry Boomer profile consists of couples and singles in rural areas who are lower- and middle-income earners.
Nearly 32 per cent of Canadians who fit this profile are aged 65 and older
Most of these seniors live in Atlantic provinces such as Nova Scotia
Backcountry Boomers include couples and singles in rural areas who are lower- and middle-income earners.
Among the provinces, Newfoundland and Labrador has the oldest population, with 24.6 per cent of residents aged 65 or older. The province with the lowest percentage of seniors is Alberta, at 15.2 per cent. Census metropolitan areas with a total population of more than 100,000 seniors include Trois-Rivières and Saguenay in Quebec, as well as Peterborough, Ont., and Nanaimo, B.C.
The typical dwelling type held by PRIZM profiles with a high concentration of seniors is a low-rise apartment or single-detached home, according to Environics Analytics. Additionally, residents are more likely to own their home than rent. The cultural diversity index among the profiles mentioned above also remains low.
Although most Canadian seniors are non-immigrants based on data from 2021, those who immigrated to Canada make up 29.9 per cent of the senior population, with most having moved before 1980. Most seniors who would consider themselves visible minorities identify as Chinese, South Asian or Black. The majority of seniors in Canada practise either Christianity, Islam or Sikhism.
For those aged 65 and older, the median total income is about $33,200, according to Statistics Canada data from 2020. Sources of income mainly include government transfers and private retirement income, although employment income still accounts for nearly one-fifth of a senior’s total income.
HEALTH CARE: ‘INCREASING DEMAND’ FOR SERVICES
Some of the most significant challenges brought about by an aging population will arise in Canada’s health-care sector, said Chad Leaver, director of health at the Conference Board of Canada, a national research organization. Looking at current health-care systems, Leaver said the country is not adequately prepared for an aging population.
Adding to the problem is the fact that many of these health-care workers, such as physicians, are getting older themselves and preparing to leave the workforce. Data from the Canadian Institute for Health Information shows approximately nine per cent of physicians were 65 years of age and older in 2000, while seven per cent were between the ages of 60 and 64. By 2022, 15 per cent of physicians in Canada were aged 65 and older, and nearly 10 per cent were 60 to 64 years of age.
It’s also important to consider that patients are becoming older, too, said Arthur Sweetman, a professor at McMaster University in Hamilton who specializes in health and labour economics. An aging population is also resulting in “increasing demand” for health-care services, he said.
This rise in demand for physicians as well as caregivers is raising questions about who will fill these roles in the years to come, Norris said.
The answer may involve Canada’s younger generations, said Leaver. The rise in an aging population could serve as a chance for those entering the workforce to fill existing gaps in the health-care sector, one of which involves better tracking of a patient’s health status over time, something Leaver said is currently lacking across the country.
WORKFORCE: ‘IMBALANCE’ AS MORE WORKERS RETIRE
Beyond its impact on the health-care sector, a growing senior population has larger implications for Canada’s labour market and economy, Norris said. The Generation Z cohort has not been able to keep up with the large number of seniors who have been retiring over the last few years, he said, a trend that is expected to continue as more Canadians retire in the years to come.
“The challenge we're now living through is having to deal with that imbalance between the numbers,” Norris said. “So we have … a slowdown in our workforce, and we see that today in terms of labour shortages.”
Businesses of all sizes and in all industries have complained about labour shortages for months, with experts saying Canada’s aging workforce is to blame. With fewer workers, this could lead to slower economic growth, Norris said. As a result, existing employees could be forced to work more hours, on average, to fill the gaps, which may impact their quality of life.
In order to prepare for future labour shortages, different sectors could consider more opportunities to hire younger candidates, Norris said, which might also allow them to move into higher-paying jobs. This phenomenon has already been seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, with some young candidates moving out of industries such as accommodation and food services, as well as retail trade, Norris said.
“Those are low-paying jobs and it wasn't that young people sort of left the workforce during the pandemic,” he said. “They had other opportunities and moved to higher-paying jobs in some way.”
HOUSING: AGE-FRIENDLY COMMUNITIES
Most Canadian seniors live at homes with their spouse, according to Statistics Canada census data from 2021. While about one in four seniors lives alone, this tends to be more common among women aged 65 and older than men. Additionally, data shows that living alone increases with age. This is particularly the case for women, due to the difference in death rates between both genders, Norris said. Data from Statistics Canada as of 2020 shows the average life expectancy for is 79.49 years for men and 83.96 years for women.
A large proportion of seniors aged 85 and older live in collective dwellings, which include nursing homes and seniors’ residences. Many seniors also prefer to live in the communities they were brought up in, Norris said.
Despite this desire to somewhat maintain the status quo, the deterioration of health conditions that comes with aging will often force seniors to change their living arrangements. This can include efforts to improve accessibility within their existing home or to move to a residence that can offer appropriate care, Norris said.
Not enough is currently being done to ensure seniors are able to accomplish either of these things, said Mark Rosenberg, a geography professor at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont., and a Canada Research Chair in development studies. To make sure the housing needs of an aging population are met, more money should be offered to seniors looking to renovate their homes through grants or additional benefits, Rosenberg said.
Mary Ann Murphy, an associate professor of sociology at the University of British Columbia, points to one group home model in Kelowna, B.C., where she lives, as an example of a community that can benefit older Canadians. This type of housing involves self-contained units in an apartment-style building where residents have access to a housekeeper and share meals together. These homes are meant for those who might not need complex medical care, but are looking for support with chores and other responsibilities.
This kind of alternative can help seniors maintain a sense of autonomy while securing the support they need, without requiring a long-term care home, said Murphy. In addition to possibly freeing up existing residential properties, this gap in the market can serve as yet another opportunity for younger Canadians to get involved, particularly those looking to invest in real estate development, Murphy said.
CHALLENGES ARE ‘MULTI-JURISDICTIONAL’: EXPERT
Although there is still time before the senior population surges ahead of 2043, more must be done now to prepare for an aging population, Norris said. The demographer is hoping to see more intersectional co-operation between all levels of government to accomplish this, with provincial and territorial governments taking the lead on health-care initiatives and the development of age-friendly communities.
“From a demographer’s point of view, we could 40 years ago anticipate where we are today, those numbers were there,” Norris said. “The challenges faced are complex and multi-jurisdictional in many ways, and so we need various levels of government to work together to address the needs (of seniors).”
CTV News is a division of Bell Media, which is part of BCE Inc.
With files from The Canadian Press
Edited by Mary Nersessian, graphics produced by Jesse Tahirali
A day after a New York jury delivered a historic guilty verdict in Donald Trump's criminal hush money trial, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee will likely look to cast the conviction and his campaign in a new light.
An actor who has appeared in film and TV projects like 'Rebel Moon' and 'How I Met Your Mother' has been arrested and charged with stabbing his estranged girlfriend multiple times.
Now that the jury in Donald Trump's criminal trial has made the historic decision to convict him, the judge overseeing the case will soon face a monumental choice: whether to sentence the 2024 Republican presidential candidate to time behind bars.
After hours of deliberations, a jury of Donald Trump's New York City peers convicted him on 34 counts, making him the first the former U.S. president in history with a felony conviction.
Months before British Columbia sought to scale back its drug decriminalization pilot project, the federal government's own polling suggested to officials that a majority of Canadians believed the policy would lead to an increase in overdoses.
The Canadian economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.7 per cent in the first quarter, missing forecasts, and real gross domestic product likely rose 0.3 per cent on a monthly basis in April, data showed on Friday.
Police in Prince George say a video circulating online has prompted them to open an investigation into a violent assault and robbery that apparently took place in the city in early April.
Mounties in Kelowna, B.C., say officers have seized two handguns and more than two kilograms of cocaine and fentanyl following a traffic stop last week.
Wiring funds using your bank is usually a safe thing to do and most transactions happen without any problems, but sometimes a wire transfer can be rejected or go missing and getting your money back is not always easy.
Residents in the northwest Calgary community of Huntington Hills were out early Friday morning assessing the damage to their vehicles after a big crash.
Now that the jury in Donald Trump's criminal trial has made the historic decision to convict him, the judge overseeing the case will soon face a monumental choice: whether to sentence the 2024 Republican presidential candidate to time behind bars.
The previously proposed axle redesign for the light rail vehicles on Ottawa's Confederation Line LRT is not off the table, despite a city report suggesting otherwise, a source familiar with the matter tells CTV News Ottawa.
The lineup for Canada's 157th birthday party in Ottawa and Gatineau has been released, with the main birthday celebrations set for LeBreton Flats Park for the third straight year.
Montreal Mayor Valerie Plante said vehicle registration may rise and that she hopes to reduce wait times for housing build permits. She spoke with CTV News anchor Caroline Van Vlaardingen about those issues as well as a safe drug-use site near a playground, antisemitic acts in the city and encampments at McGill and UQAM.
The Florida Panthers are a victory away from securing a berth in the Stanley Cup final and the Edmonton Oilers are looking for a road win in a pivotal Game 5 at Dallas.
Action film ‘Nobody’ shot to the top of the box office in 2021 and star Bob Odenkirk is coming back to Manitoba this summer to shoot the sequel – but ‘Nobody 2’ isn’t the only Hollywood flick filming here in the coming months.
The provincial government says it will provide housing and meals for the 250 residents evacuated from a St. James apartment complex earlier this month.
Saskatchewan teachers have rejected the latest offer from the province that would have seen an end to a contract dispute that has now surpassed one year.
All scrap tires in Saskatchewan will soon be recycled by an American firm with the NDP saying a California company, who already recycles tires in the southern part of the province, now getting a contract to handle the north as well.
Saskatchewan teachers have rejected the latest offer from the province that would have seen an end to a contract dispute that has now surpassed one year.
An upcoming land levy for all new single-family home builds in Saskatoon sparked plenty of debate over government responsibilities, and raised affordability concerns at City Hall on Wednesday.
The Canadian economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.7 per cent in the first quarter, missing forecasts, and real gross domestic product likely rose 0.3 per cent on a monthly basis in April, data showed on Friday.
The northern Ontario police officers involved in a case that killed a man in crisis in 2020 say they were left on their own without mental health support following the tragedy.
After 12 years of being in and out of court, an Ontario judge has ended a Sault Ste. Marie man’s bizarre attempt to force the Soo Greyhounds to give him free tickets.
Investigators with Ontario's Fire Marshal's Office and the Goderich Fire Department have determined that the fire that levelled Watson's Home Hardware over the weekend was not intentionally set.
After nine weeks of testimony and submissions, the fate of a mother and father charged in connection with a horrific child abuse case is now in the hands of a 12-person jury.
With the Crown seeking three guilty verdicts and the defence asking for an acquittal, the closing arguments were submitted Thursday at the sexual assault trial of the former mayor of Woodstock.
Two Barrie residents face nearly 60 charges after police say an officer was struck by a vehicle after approaching a driver slumped over the steering wheel in Oro-Medonte.
Members of the Environment, Transportation & Public Safety Standing Committee have endorsed adding 10 red light cameras to intersections with high collision rates after seeing a reduction in collisions where these cameras already exist.
General Motors will move out of the Renaissance Center next year and, looking to the future, CEO Mary Barra doesn’t rule out the demolition of the building.
A Canadian navy sailor who brutally raped a woman on a British Columbia military base has been sentenced to three years and eight months in federal prison.
Donald Trump became the first former American president to be convicted of felony crimes Thursday as a New York jury found him guilty of all 34 charges in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through a hush money payment to a porn actor who said the two had sex.
British Columbia will cover the cost of an antiviral drug aimed at treating mild to moderate cases of COVID-19 as the federal government ends its coverage.
After 12 years of being in and out of court, an Ontario judge has ended a Sault Ste. Marie man’s bizarre attempt to force the Soo Greyhounds to give him free tickets.
The northern Ontario police officers involved in a case that killed a man in crisis in 2020 say they were left on their own without mental health support following the tragedy.
Celebrating the fiftieth anniversary of Troop 17 — the first class of women recruits on the national police force — the RCMP in Newfoundland and Labrador led a ceremonial march through a small part of downtown St. John’s on Tuesday afternoon.
Students and staff at Winnipeg’s Westwood Collegiate had a unique problem to solve this month; how do you lead ducks to water from the school’s courtyard when 12 of them can’t fly yet?
Months before British Columbia sought to scale back its drug decriminalization pilot project, the federal government's own polling suggested to officials that a majority of Canadians believed the policy would lead to an increase in overdoses.
Deputy Speaker Chris d'Entremont says he did not approve an advertisement for a Conservative party event that led the NDP to accuse him of partisanship.
Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly is suggesting Canada would support a policy of allowing Ukraine to use NATO-provided arms inside Russia, amid a debate among members of the military alliance.
A Kitchener, Ont. woman has renewed hope that the province will fund a rare – and pricey – cancer drug after a local politician saw her story on CTV News.
A jury's award of $400,000 to a woman who had a mastectomy after being misdiagnosed with breast cancer has been substantially reduced by B.C.'s highest court, which found the damages were "wholly disproportionate."
A massive new Toronto vaccine factory, tasked with making flu shots and preparing for the next pandemic, won't start producing shots until 2027 -- as much as a year later than the company initially envisioned when the plant was first announced.
The four members of the Swedish pop quartet ABBA, who triumphed at the 1974 Eurovision Song Contest with the peppy love song 'Waterloo,' on Friday got one of the most prestigious knighthoods in Sweden from the Swedish King Carl XVI Gustaf.
Action film ‘Nobody’ shot to the top of the box office in 2021 and star Bob Odenkirk is coming back to Manitoba this summer to shoot the sequel – but ‘Nobody 2’ isn’t the only Hollywood flick filming here in the coming months.
Shania Twain recently addressed the infidelity that rocked her marriage to Robert 'Mutt' Lange, whom she divorced in 2010 after he had an affair with her friend, Marie-Anne Thiébaud.
Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group, the owner of social networking site Truth Social, slumped before the opening bell Friday after former U.S. president Donald Trump was convicted in his hush money trial.
The Canadian economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.7 per cent in the first quarter, missing forecasts, and real gross domestic product likely rose 0.3 per cent on a monthly basis in April, data showed on Friday.
The odd-looking, oversized cargo plane — a favourite among planespotters around the world — has been in service for close to two decades. It mainly transports aircraft parts between Airbus' manufacturing facilities spread throughout Europe.
A film made in 1920 in Cape Breton recorded the first prototype of a hydro foil boat as it roared across the surface of the Bras d'Or Lakes in Baddeck, N.S.
There's always something to be happy about when the Edmonton Oilers are making good strides in the playoffs, but this is especially true for two lucky fans who were able to enjoy the sights and sounds of Game 4 — for free.
The U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday sued South Korean auto giant Hyundai Motor Co., an auto parts plant and a labour recruiter over illegal use of child labour in Alabama.
A new study finds fewer Canadians say they're interested in buying an electric vehicle as concerns remain about limited driving ranges, high prices and a lack of charging stations.