Eric Ham: With Trump administration floundering, Canada should seize the moment

Political strategists on PM Carney’s Trump meeting, U.S.-UK deal’s impact on Canada, and what to expect from his upcoming cabinet picks.

WASHINGTON — Eric Ham is based in Washington, D.C. and is a political analyst for CTV News. He’s a bestselling author and former congressional staffer in the U.S. Congress and writes for CTVNews.ca.

After weeks of intense questioning by reporters, the Trump administration is finally feeling the heat to secure trade deals in the disastrous aftermath of the president’s Liberation Day tariff announcement which sparked a global economic meltdown.

Since then, the markets have seen massive volatility as both the mixed messaging from the White House and predictions of a looming recession grow louder. Washington’s recent announcements of a trade agreement with the U.K. as well as a pause in tariffs with China underscored the political vice-grip squeezing the president.

While news of the “deals” saw the markets react positively and the White House hailed each as a resounding victory and testament to the president’s trade policy — just beneath the surface belied the harsh reality of the massive brouhaha barrelling towards this administration.

The self-inflicted wounds enacted by the White House forced the former reality television star to grudgingly capitulate to the stunning truth; his trade policies are both an economic and political loser.

Moreover, as little has been revealed about the details of the agreements with London and Beijing, what is undoubtedly clear is that U.S. officials are negotiating from a place of weakness, making the prospects for potentially advantageous and beneficial deals possible for other nations.

This is an enviable position for Canada as it eyes future negotiations on CUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement) and other ongoing talks with the White House on a range of products including steel, aluminum and lumber.

In the wake of the momentous ceasefire agreement negotiated by India and Pakistan that followed the deadly terror attack in Pahalgam, it was shockingly perplexing to learn President Trump take credit for the de-escalation.

In fact, the American strongman has been touting the ceasefire throughout his recent Middle East State visit, claiming credit. The twice-impeached convicted felon even went so far as to proclaim the threat of withholding trade agreements as the catalyst that forced both sides into a deal.

Even in his abject weakness, President Trump desperately attempts to project strength. Ironically, the more desperate and craven the president grows in his futile efforts to save face, the more harrowing and far-reaching the mistruths about lacklustre, naked and empty tariffs.

Still, after weeks of economic malaise and turmoil, global leaders, C-suite executives as well as market watchers are in unison recognizing the emperor has no clothes on his most prized economic policy. President Trump’s bizarre and audacious claim of using trade policy as a key diplomatic tool that staved off possible nuclear war makes abundantly clear the level of concern inside the halls of 1600 Pennsylvania.

Yet, it is that fear, that anxiety, and yes, that outlandish hyperbole that should signal to all nations that this is a leader caving to the pressure and recognizes the pandemonium on the horizon if a course correction doesn’t happen immediately.

Last week, while seated in the Oval Office, Prime Minister Mark Carney, fresh off a victory for his Liberal Party, boldly proclaimed the United States-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement needed to be re-negotiated. The newly-minted PM showed enormous resoluteness countering President Trump’s praises of the regional pact negotiated during his first term.

• Full coverage of Trump’s tariffs

Sensing a shift in the political fortunes of the president, the prime minister projected resolve and stood firm. The economic dominos are beginning to fall much like the massive tariff rates President Trump only weeks ago took great delight in inflicting on friend and foe alike. Great Britain; China; and now, can Canada be the next nation to extract concessions and move the mercurial and impulsive leader of the free world from a policy, that even many within the White House quietly recognizes is deleterious to the global economy?

Now, the administration is in free fall and Canada can and should take advantage. In fact, President Trump’s fortuitous boast of economic warfare against America’s northern neighbour has now effectively come to a screeching halt. Prime Minister Carney and his newly-installed cabinet have an opportunity to expound on his successful meeting from a week ago.

The U.K.-U.S. trade deal, which has shown itself to be a complex shell game, is now revealed to be a labyrinth of off-ramps to provide the president a way to move on from his debilitating tariffs. Opening negotiations were barely underway in Switzerland when negotiators for the U.S. and China expeditiously sought to dramatically reduce crippling tariffs on both sides.

Undoubtedly, President Trump is eyeing the exits and is looking for partners, friends, and even competitors to bolster his wayward policies in the lasting epitaph when the final stories are written. Though halted, President Trump’s ongoing economic war on Canada is far from over. In fact, the president might be politically bruised but Prime Minister Carney and other provincial leaders would do well to never underestimate his voracious and never-ending appetite for chaos.

Therefore, leaders need to watch the White House and the machinations by administration officials closely, as they’re very telling and can be very instructive in helping advance Ottawa’s defences when — not if — the president attempts to lob another scathing attack on the Canadian economy.

The blueprint has been written and is now laid. President Trump, undoubtedly the most powerful chief executive since Franklin Delano Roosevelt, is perhaps at the weakest of any president with just over 100 days in office.

Now is the time for Canada to seize the moment. To hesitate carries enormous risk. Doing nothing invites certain peril. Act and save a nation from its ardent agitator and tormentor. Choose wisely.