Warm waters, low lake levels could shape winter in Windsor-Essex, raising local concerns

Lake Erie is unusually warm and levels are at very low levels. CTV Windsor’s Chris Campbell.

Warmer than normal water temperatures and lower lake levels across the Great Lakes are creating unusual fall conditions that could influence the coming winter in Windsor-Essex and Chatham-Kent.

Environment and Climate Change Canada Meteorologist Steven Flisfeder says Lake Erie’s surface temperatures remain well above average for late October.

“Over the past few years, we’ve been seeing the lakes be fairly warm — definitely warmer than normal,” said Flisfeder. “When we compare to the water climatology, it is unusual for the lakes to be this warm this late into the season. Right now, for Lake Erie, it’s about 10 to 15 degrees [Celsius] depending on which part of the lake you’re looking at.”

Flisfeder says the warmth isn’t expected to drop drastically in the near future, and low precipitation through early fall has also contributed to lower lake and river levels across the region.

“For most areas along the Great Lakes basin, the water levels have been pretty low,” he said. “Small rivers especially have been affected by the low water levels through September and October where we had very little precipitation.”

Despite the warmer water, Flisfeder notes that lake-effect snow is rarely a major factor in Windsor-Essex because of geography and prevailing wind patterns.

“For the Windsor-Essex area, it’s not so much Lake Erie that contributes to lake-effect snow, but more Lake Huron, with northerly winds pushing across Lake St. Clair,” he explained. “That’s on the rarer side for Windsor-Essex.”

He adds that while the official winter forecast won’t be released until December, early indications suggest a warmer-than-normal season overall.

“Looking at longer range guidance, we’re anticipating a warmer than normal season — at least mildly so,” said Flisfeder. “That means there’s really a bit of a shrug when it comes to snowfall. It’s going to be very dependent on week-to-week weather systems more than a seasonal forecast.”

The meteorologist adds the region is shifting from a La Niña pattern into more neutral conditions, adding uncertainty to precipitation projections.

“At this time, it really is kind of a question mark how the snowfall will be,” he said. “But temperature-wise, you can expect warmer than normal, which means more likelihood for mixed precipitation throughout the winter.”

At the University of Windsor’s Great Lakes Institute for Environmental Research (GLIER), Executive Director Mike McKay says the warmer temperatures are part of a natural cycle of highs and lows, but the current low lake levels are notable.

“The lakes undergo cycles. We go through high water levels, low water levels,” McKay said. “We’ve had record high temperatures in the Great Lakes recently, and when cold winds sweep over that warmer water, you get more evaporation. So, we’re likely to see lower levels moving into late fall and winter.”

McKay says while the lower levels are not expected to impact commercial shipping, they could have longer-term effects on wetlands and ecosystems.

“When wetlands are high and dry, it can take a while for them to recover,” he said. “Wetlands are really important for providing ecosystem services for the Great Lakes.”

He adds that Lake Erie currently sits around 174 feet above sea level but could drop further.

“We could get down a meter or more in lake levels — we haven’t seen that in years,” McKay said.

In the Town of Essex, where residents are increasingly concerned about shoreline changes and year-round water quality, Mayor Sherry Bondy is inviting the public to take part in a community conversation at the Colchester Community Centre on Saturday morning to talk about the health of the Great Lakes.

“We want to have a meeting of the minds,” Bondy said. “We live right on the Great Lakes. They’re very vital to us in terms of our water, our drinking water, for recreation. We just want to start talking about the importance of the Great Lakes and what it means for Essex County.”

Bondy says the municipality wants to gather more data and strengthen community involvement in environmental monitoring.

“We’re talking about doing weather monitoring along the Great Lakes and capturing more data,” she said. “You can never have too much public consultation or too much information. We want to start going in the right direction and solving problems, rather than just being bystanders to what’s happening around us.”

While scientists say it’s too soon to know exactly how this winter will play out, the consensus is clear that Lake Erie’s warmth and low levels are part of a changing pattern that affects everything from precipitation to public policy.