Poll shows race tightening between Liberals and Conservatives, as NDP vote continues to drop

This composite image shows, left to right, Liberal Leader Mark Carney on March 21, 2025; Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre on March 4, 2025; NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh on Jan. 22, 2025, in Ottawa. (Sean Kilpatrick, Adrian Wyld, Justin Tang / The Canadian Press)

Just four days away from the federal election, polling released Thursday by Nanos shows the race is also getting closer.

“When you look a the night by night trendline, the Conservatives picked up a percentage point every night for the last three nights,” said pollster Nik Nanos Thursday. “It’s helped them close the gap – the big news in the last couple of days has actually been the Conservatives’ fully costed platform.”

The Nanos poll shows the Liberals’ lead across the country down to four percentage points over the Conservatives, while the NDP dropped even lower, with just seven per cent of respondents supporting it.

Mark Carney’s lead as preferred prime minister – although still significant – has shrunk to nine percentage points over Pierre Poilievre.

Still, the Liberals are poised to win, says University of Victoria political scientist Michael Prince, citing the Liberals’ more efficient support. The Conservatives tend to win fewer ridings by larger margins, pushing their overall vote total higher without adding any seats.

“This will be a surprising revival of a party that was on death’s bed,” said Prince Thursday.

In B.C., the Nanos poll shows the Conservatives have a two-point lead. Prince says that means observers in some ridings should expect a late night.

“This means there will be some real tight squeakers the night of the election,” predicted Prince. “There’s going to be some fascinating races, maybe a few recounts. We’re going to see some pretty tight races, where people win by a small margin.”