Gas prices in the GTA set to drop considerably this week. Here is how much drivers can expect to pay.

Dan McTeague of Canadians for Affordable Energy explains how global tensions and tax changes are driving gas prices down and what’s next for energy costs.

Gas prices in the Greater Toronto Area are set to drop by five cents a litre overnight and could soon be back to where they were prior to the beginning of the Iran-Israel conflict, an industry analyst says.

Canadians for Affordable Energy President Dan McTeague tells CP24 that he expects the price of a litre of regular gasoline to drop to about 138.9 cents per litre on average at midnight, before falling by another four cents per litre on Thursday.

McTeague says that it is possible that by Friday gas will be back down to around $1.30 per litre in the GTA and much of southern Ontario.

He says that the decline in prices at the pump is directly related to recent developments in the Iran-Israel conflict.

Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire that was set to take effect Tuesday, however U.S. President Donald Trump expressed frustration earlier in the day after he said that both countries had violated the agreement.

Trump later said on social media that Israel would “turn around” its jets and stop attacking Iran and that the ceasefire was “in effect.”

“If President Trump is correct and there is a truce and there is no further evidence of this matter escalating then we are returning to the exact same prices we had two weeks ago,” McTeague said.

The average cost of a litre of regular fuel hit a recent high of 143.9 cents per litre in the GTA this week amid concerns that the conflict in the Middle East could disrupt oil markets.

McTeague, however, pointed out that only about 20 to 25 per cent of the world’s oil supply comes from the region, something that he said would limit the impact that the conflict will have on drivers at the pumps especially when compared to the way oil prices surged in the aftermath of Russia invading Ukraine in 2022.

Back then, gas prices in the GTA peaked at a record 215.5 cents per litre.

“There was a note of caution that I think went through the mind of energy traders that said let’s look this time before we leap and that is exactly why we saw oil prices go up $10 dollars a barrel and have now seen it drop $10 a barrel to exactly where we were just prior to the initial attacks on June 10,” McTeague said.