Trudeau Liberals face uphill battle with ballot support, preferred PM number falling
As they gear up to unveil their 2023 budget in a few weeks, the federal Liberals are in an uphill battle against the Conservatives in both ballot support and preferred prime minister numbers, according to Nanos Research.
With health care still the top national issue of concern for Canadians, the Liberals in January and beginning of February were enjoying a significant uptick in public support -- with their health-care funding deals with the provinces prominently in the headlines.
It resulted in positive movement for them in Nanos’ weekly ballot tracking over a four-week period, said Nanos Research Chair Nik Nanos on the latest episode of CTV News Trend Line.
“But what we've now seen in the last number of weeks is that the Liberal numbers are going down,” said Nanos.
Nanos weekly ballot support tracking as of March 15, 2023.
There was no significant change for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives over the past four weeks, but Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals took a five-percentage point dip.
“What’s happening right now is the Conservative numbers are holding,” said Nanos, while “there’s been downward pressure on the Liberals.” He added that “any number for the Liberals that has a ‘two’ in front of it is bad news [for them].”
VOTE SPLIT SCENARIO
The NDP numbers, meanwhile, remain flat, while the Bloc Quebecois are up a few percentage points to nine per cent nationally.
“Nine per cent nationally for the Bloc is actually significantly higher in the province of Quebec,” said Nanos. And with the NDP in the twenties and the Bloc up, “that’s the scenario that creates vote splits,” said Nanos.
“It creates vote splits in Quebec, it creates vote splits in Ontario, in British Columbia; and those vote splits usually hurt the Liberals and they help when it comes to generating seats both for federal Conservatives and the New Democrats.”
PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER
When it comes to leadership and public support, the Liberals find themselves in a similar downward trend as their ballot numbers. Historically, long-term trends show the prime minister with a “baked-in” four- or five-point advantage simply because they’re the head of government.
“But when you check out the trend right now, you can see almost a perfect statistical dead heat between Justin Trudeau in Pierre Poilevre,” said Nanos.
Nanos' Preferred Prime Minister numbers as of March 15, 2023.
“Trudeau's down four or five points in the last four weeks. Pierre Polievre's up two. Jagmeet Singh is at 16, which isn't a bad number for the New Democrats,” said Nanos, adding that “whenever you're the incumbent prime minister and you don't have an advantage over your challenger, that's bad news.”
STAKES HIGH FOR LIBERALS IN UPCOMING BUDGET
The federal budget due on March 28 could be an opportunity for the Liberals to turn things around, and Nanos said the “stakes are quite high” for Trudeau’s minority Liberals.
“Every budget is important for whoever the government of the day happens to be, because it's usually a platform to dominate the narrative in the news and get your message out,” said Nanos. But the complicating factor for the Liberals is their agreement with the NDP to support the minority Liberal government on key votes in the House of Commons to avoid triggering an election.
“The big question is, what will there be in the federal budget that the Liberals will have, to placate or ameliorate the New Democrats? And what will [NDP Leader] Jagmeet Singh be asking for? I think the reality is that the NDP are probably going to support the budget, regardless, because I'm not sure if they want an election right now. But depending on how closely the Liberals appease or not appease the New Democrats, that'll probably be the first signal as to how long this particular parliament could last.”
Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts. The next episode comes out Wednesday, March 29, the day after the federal budget is released.
IN DEPTH
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
'Democracy requires constant vigilance' Trudeau testifies at inquiry into foreign election interference in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified Wednesday before the national public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's electoral processes, following a day of testimony from top cabinet ministers about allegations of meddling in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Recap all the prime minister had to say.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
DEVELOPING Live updates as Stormy Daniels testifies at Trump hush money trial
Adult film star Stormy Daniels will take the stand a second time Thursday as former U.S. president Donald Trump’s hush money case continues in Manhattan. Follow live updates here.
BREAKING Toronto Maple Leafs fire head coach Sheldon Keefe
The Toronto Maple Leafs have fired head coach Sheldon Keefe. The team made the announcement Thursday after the Original Six franchise lost to the Boston Bruins in seven games in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Bank of Canada says financial system is stable, but risks remain
The Bank of Canada says the Canadian financial system is stable, but risks remain due to debt servicing costs among households and businesses and stretched valuations of financial assets.
Why these immigrants to Canada say they're thinking about leaving, or have already moved on
For some immigrants, their dreams of permanently settling in Canada have taken an unexpected twist.
Here are the ultraprocessed foods you most need to avoid, according to a 30-year study
Studies have shown that ultraprocessed foods can have a detrimental impact on health. But 30 years of research show they don’t all have the same impact.
Torchbearers in Marseille kick off the Olympic flame's journey across France
Torchbearers carried the Olympic flame through the streets of France's southern port city of Marseille on Thursday, a day after it arrived on a majestic three-mast ship for a welcoming ceremony.
Capital gains tax change 'shortsighted' and 'sows division' business groups tell Freeland
Forging ahead with increasing Canada's capital gains inclusion rate 'sows division,' and is a 'shortsighted' way to improve the deficit, business groups are warning Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.
Court to hear about search for remains as Winnipeg murder trial enters second day
A courtroom in Winnipeg is expected to hear testimony today about the search for the remains of the four victims of Jeremy Skibicki.
Ontario man frustrated after $3,500 paving job leaves driveway in shambles
An Ontario man considering having his driveway paved received a quote from a company for $7,000, but then, another paver in the neighbourhood knocked on his door and offered half that rate.
Local Spotlight
'Oh Crap!' New exhibit at Canada Science and Technology Museum explores human waste
The Canada Science and Technology Museum is inviting visitors to explore their poop. A new exhibition opens at the Ottawa museum on Friday called, 'Oh Crap! Rethinking human waste.'
Regina police hope new biometric monitoring system will save lives in detention facility
The Regina Police Service says it is the first in Saskatchewan and possibly Canada to implement new technology in its detention facility that will offer real-time monitoring of detainees’ vital health metrics.
Vancouver and Edmonton's mayors bet on who will win Round 2 of the playoffs. Here's what's at stake
The stakes have been set for a bet between Vancouver and Edmonton's mayors on who will win Round 2 of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
'No other life taken': Mother leads ATV helmet drive to honour daughter's legacy
A grieving mother is hosting a helmet drive in the hopes of protecting children on Manitoba First Nations from a similar tragedy that killed her daughter.
Northern Ont. woman makes 'eggstraordinary' find
A chicken farmer near Mattawa made an 'eggstraordinary' find Friday morning when she discovered one of her hens laid an egg close to three times the size of an average large chicken egg.
P.E.I. lighthouse, N.B. river spotlighted in Canada Post series
A P.E.I. lighthouse and a New Brunswick river are being honoured in a Canada Post series.
'It looked so legit': Ontario man pays $7,700 for luxury villa found on Booking.com, but the listing was fake
An Ontario man says he paid more than $7,700 for a luxury villa he found on a popular travel website -- but the listing was fake.
Investigating the tale of Winnipeg's long-running mystery bookstore
Whether passionate about Poirot or hungry for Holmes, Winnipeg mystery obsessives have had a local haunt for over 30 years in which to search out their latest page-turners.
'Love has no boundaries': Sask. couple in their 90s and 80s get married
Eighty-two-year-old Susan Neufeldt and 90-year-old Ulrich Richter are no spring chickens, but their love blossomed over the weekend with their wedding at Pine View Manor just outside of Rosthern.