Predictions for Trudeau, Poilievre and the other federal leaders in the New Year: Nanos
In CTV News Trend Line's last episode of 2022, pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle discuss Canada's major federal parties – what moved the needle for them this year, and what do they have to look forward to in 2023?
LIBERALS
With another pandemic-laden year that began with the convoy protests, the Liberals faced significant challenges in their efforts to advance their agenda in 2022. "I don't want to use the word excuse, but there is a reason why the Liberals have not been able to deliver and focus on their agenda," said Nanos, "because there (were) other events, massive events that have overtaken that."
But with the next federal election coming in 2025 (or sooner), the clock is ticking, and Nanos said they're going to want to try to deliver on some of the items on their agenda.
"Two words in terms of the prediction for 2023 for the Liberals: Hunger Games," said Nanos, referring to speculation on whether Justin Trudeau will stay on as Liberal Party leader, and the jockeying within cabinet and caucus amongst possible contenders for the job. "Does Justin Trudeau still have the fire in his belly to continue and fight another election?" asked Nanos.
While Trudeau has told his cabinet he intends to run, "he has to say that, because he can't be a lame duck leader and a lame duck prime minister," said Nanos. "But people, I think, will be putting him under the microscope, watching and listening to everything that he says and does to see if there are any signals as to his future staying on as the leader of the Liberal Party, or perhaps not staying on."
This could result in a year of some prominent Liberals "awkwardly" positioning themselves for a leadership bid, while still being loyal to Trudeau, according to Nanos.
CONSERVATIVES
The Conservatives were competitive throughout the year with the Liberals in Nanos' weekly national ballot tracking. Since January, the parties were either trading leads or were neck and neck for extended periods, with the Conservatives opening up a small but sustained lead that lasted over a month after Pierre Poilievre was crowned leader in September.
The parties were statistically tied a few weeks ago, but the Conservatives have opened up a four-point lead in latest tracking on Dec. 9.
Nanos' prediction for the Conservatives in 2023 is a "big focus" on fundraising, on efforts to build up their organization and a "new machinery for the election."
"Don't underestimate Pierre Poilievre. He's excellent at communicating, but he also knows what needs to be done to win elections," said Nanos, who added that the Conservative leader will continue to attack the Liberals and institutions such as the Bank of Canada, as well as the media.
"And he will use those attacks to be red meat to core Conservatives to open up their wallets, to build the war chest so that Pierre Poilievre can have all the resources at his disposal to challenge the federal Liberals."
NDP
Nanos said the fact the NDP was able to maintain ballot support hovering in the 20s throughout the year is "usually good news for the New Democrats and bad news for the Liberals" because of vote splits. But the existential question for the party remains whether they can keep supporting and propping up the Liberals with their confidence-and-supply agreement.
Just this week, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said he's ready to withdraw from the deal reached in March -- a deal in which his party agreed to support the Liberals on key House of Commons votes to avoid triggering an election before 2025 -- if the Liberals fail to address the crisis in our health-care system.
This kind of jockeying will continue in 2023, said Nanos, when the NDP are going to have to decide what they're ready to push the Liberals on. "They've got their dental plan. What else are they going to ask as part of the agreement with the Liberals? How are they going to weather the storm that will happen at some point," said Nanos.
"How are they going to weather the next crisis that might not look well on the Liberals, with the New Democrats looking like the party that is propping up a government that is going through turbulence in 2023?"
For the rest of Nanos' analysis on the Green Party and Bloc Quebecois, and for the full Trend Line episode, hit play in our video player above or listen to it below in our podcast player.
CTV News Trend Line will return after the holidays on Jan. 18, 2023.
IN DEPTH
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
'Democracy requires constant vigilance' Trudeau testifies at inquiry into foreign election interference in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified Wednesday before the national public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's electoral processes, following a day of testimony from top cabinet ministers about allegations of meddling in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Recap all the prime minister had to say.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
All London Drugs stores closed across Western Canada due to system issue
All 79 locations of pharmacy and retail chain London Drugs are shut down Sunday, and there is no estimate on when they will be back open.
CDC says it's identified 1st documented cases of HIV transmitted through cosmetic needles
Three women who were diagnosed with HIV after getting 'vampire facial' procedures at an unlicensed New Mexico medical spa are believed to be the first documented cases of people contracting the virus through a cosmetic procedure using needles, federal health officials said.
Casey DeSmith won’t start Game 4 for the Canucks
Rookie goalie Arturs Silovs will start in net for the Vancouver Canucks when they face the Nashville Predators in Game 4 of their first-round playoff series Sunday.
Ontario to ban use of cellphones in school classrooms starting in September
Ontario is introducing a suite of measures that will crack down on cellphone use and vaping in schools.
Putin likely didn't order death of Russian opposition leader Navalny, U.S. official says
U.S. intelligence officials have determined that Russian President Vladimir Putin likely didn't order the death of imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny in February, according to an official familiar with the determination.
Deadly six-vehicle crash on Highway 400 sparked by road rage incident
One person was killed in a six-vehicle crash on Highway 400 in Innisfil Friday evening.
Cybersecurity expert weighs in on the possibility of a U.S. ban of TikTok
Anyone who has a Gen-Z person in their life is likely familiar with the popular social media app TikTok, but a new bill in the U.S. may soon take it off of the American market.
Murder charge laid after man falls to death from Toronto apartment balcony
One person has been charged with second-degree murder in connection with the death of a man who fell from a balcony following an altercation inside a Toronto apartment building.
'Do not consume': Gift Chocolate recalled due to undeclared milk, soy
The Canadian Food Inspection Agency has issued a recall for a specific chocolate brand sold in Ontario and Quebec.
Local Spotlight
Haida Elder suing Catholic Church and priest, hopes for 'healing and reconciliation'
The lawyer for a residential school survivor leading a proposed class-action defamation lawsuit against the Catholic Church over residential schools says the court action is a last resort.
Kitchener family says their 10-year-old needs life-saving drug that cost $600,000
Raneem, 10, lives with a neurological condition and liver disease and needs Cholbam, a medication, for a longer and healthier life.
DonAir force takes over at Oilers playoff games
As if a 4-0 Edmonton Oilers lead in Game 1 of their playoff series with the Los Angeles Kings wasn't good enough, what was announced at Rogers Place during the next TV timeout nearly blew the roof off the downtown arena.
'It was instant karma': Viral video captures failed theft attempt in Nanaimo, B.C.
Mounties in Nanaimo, B.C., say two late-night revellers are lucky their allegedly drunken antics weren't reported to police after security cameras captured the men trying to steal a heavy sign from a downtown business.
Fergus, Ont. man feels nickel-and-dimed for $0.05 property tax bill
A property tax bill is perplexing a small townhouse community in Fergus, Ont.
Twins from Toronto were Canada's top two female finishers at this year's Boston Marathon
When identical twin sisters Kim and Michelle Krezonoski were invited to compete against some of the world’s most elite female runners at last week’s Boston Marathon, they were in disbelief.
Mystery surrounds giant custom Canucks jerseys worn by Lions Gate Bridge statues
The giant stone statues guarding the Lions Gate Bridge have been dressed in custom Vancouver Canucks jerseys as the NHL playoffs get underway.
'I'm committed': Oilers fan skips haircuts for 10 years waiting for Stanley Cup win
A local Oilers fan is hoping to see his team cut through the postseason, so he can cut his hair.
'It's not my father's body!' Wrong man sent home after death on family vacation in Cuba
A family from Laval, Que. is looking for answers... and their father's body. He died on vacation in Cuba and authorities sent someone else's body back to Canada.