Don Martin: Sooner or later in this status quo mandate, Justin Trudeau will take his walk in the snow
It might take a year or longer before it becomes clear to him, but Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will eventually realize he’s finished.
The freeze-framed results of last night’s pandemic election are just too much of a stain on his mediocre record to allow him to fight the next one.
Political leaders only get a fourth campaign shot when they are an undeniable party asset tracking toward a probable big win.
If the election proved anything amid the pointlessness of it all, it’s that Trudeau is a personal liability to his party who will bring rising tension to a fractured Parliament where three terms of rancour will fester anew among the same old, same old faces.
Complicating his ability to constructive governance is how his campaign strained national unity with attacks on premiers, stoked fear and loathing of those choosing not to vaccinate or rebelling against lockdowns and whipped up antagonism against those who hesitate to embrace his progressive policies.
So a snowy walk toward retirement in late 2022 or early 2023 is in play, even though he clearly wanted to cap his career with a majority win before heading off to pocket millions of consulting or speaking dollars in the private sector.
And if he doesn’t walk willingly, leader wannabes like deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney will undoubtedly give him a gentle push down the plank.
Now, while the torrents of laments over the monetary waste of Trudeau’s vanity vote will quickly become tiresome, we must pause to note that, at $300-million-per-gained Liberal seat, it’s an eyewatering waste of resources even by this government’s toss-money-around standards.
Someone better at math than me will likely crunch the numbers to find out how many boil water advisories could be lifted or vaccines procured or carbon-absorbing trees planted for the electoral price of procuring each additional seat in the Liberal lineup.
But I digress.
This election was mostly about leadership – and the leader referendum results are more interesting than the static seat count.
As I speculated, Justin Trudeau will leave even though his "victory" speech gave no hint of departing in this mandate. That’s hardly surprising. Only a fool would crack open the emergency exit door when you’ve just been re-elected prime minister.
But the bad look will linger on him in public mind and stew in the confines of his own caucus.
The public will find it hard to shake the self-possessed image Trudeau projected in calling an all-about-him vote as a fourth coronavirus wave went tidal and our Afghanistan allies huddled in ditches awaiting a Canadian rescue that didn’t arrive.
And by pointlessly pulling the parliamentary pin just a month before the rookie wave of Liberal MPs elected in 2015 would qualify for their pot-of-gold pension for life will not elevate loyalty levels in caucus.
Besides, Liberals surely know they were, above all other factors, simply lucky and that Justin Trudeau had little to do with them gaining seats.
The Conservatives lost more than a few ridings to a splintered vote with the People’s Party. The Liberals also put a few wins in their column in places where the Greens didn’t field a candidate. And Trudeau was gifted an issue from terminally-bloodied Alberta Premier Jason Kenney by connecting the Conservative consequences of going wide open to Erin O’Toole, who did himself no favours with a flaccid reaction to that province’s fourth wave emergency.
Speaking of O’Toole’s leadership, he now faces a struggle to continue leading a party confronting an identity crisis.
O’Toole shunned the harder-edged Harper-era ideology in favour of a kinder, gentler, bending-with-the-wind conservatism.
The result was an invigorated People’s Party threat on the far right and an erosion of seats in the Alberta heartland with no compensatory payoff in the moderate motherlode of Metro Toronto.
While that’s a devastating hit on his shove toward the political spectrum’s center and will undoubtedly lead to the madness of knives being sharpened for a back-stabbing take down, sanity must prevail and give him a second electoral chance.
Erin O’Toole is, after all, no disposable lightweight like Andrew Scheer.
And the unappetizing option of choosing between most-likely replacements like veteran MP Pierre Poilievre and impressive rookie Leslyn Lewis would merely serve up a fresh buffet of fear-factors for the Liberals to dine on.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh fell far short of expectations with no seat gains, but with star candidate Avi Lewis losing badly in B.C., there’s no prominent challenger to his likable force of personality. Bet heavily on him sticking around for the next electoral fight.
Finally, and sadly, Green party leader Annamie Paul must immediately resign. As a leader who could only field candidates in two-thirds of the ridings, admitted her presence would be a liability to her own candidates and finished a distant fourth in the Toronto riding she devoted her entire campaign to winning, well, voter repudiation simply doesn’t get any clearer than that.
Before signing off, a word about the hidden heroes of this election – the tens of thousands of voters who stood in hours-long lineups, in some cases long after the polls were closed and the results known, to cast their ballots.
This was an election without a compelling ballot box question called by a prime minister in the whimsical pursuit of greater power. And yet they defiantly persevered to participate.
An election about nothing proved something very heartening about our democracy. It’s stronger than our leaders.
That’s the bottom line
IN DEPTH
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
'Democracy requires constant vigilance' Trudeau testifies at inquiry into foreign election interference in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified Wednesday before the national public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's electoral processes, following a day of testimony from top cabinet ministers about allegations of meddling in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Recap all the prime minister had to say.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
More than 115 cases of eye damage reported in Ontario after solar eclipse
More than 115 people who viewed the solar eclipse in Ontario earlier this month experienced eye damage after the event, according to eye doctors in the province.
Toxic testing standoff: Family leaves house over air quality
A Sherwood Park family says their new house is uninhabitable. The McNaughton's say they were forced to leave the house after living there for only a week because contaminants inside made it difficult to breathe.
Decoy bear used to catch man who illegally killed a grizzly, B.C. conservation officers say
A man has been handed a lengthy hunting ban and fined thousands of dollars for illegally killing a grizzly bear, B.C. conservation officers say.
B.C. seeks ban on public drug use, dialing back decriminalization
The B.C. NDP has asked the federal government to recriminalize public drug use, marking a major shift in the province's approach to addressing the deadly overdose crisis.
OPP responds to apparent video of officer supporting anti-Trudeau government protestors
The Ontario Provincial Police (OPP) says it's investigating an interaction between a uniformed officer and anti-Trudeau government protestors after a video circulated on social media.
An emergency slide falls off a Delta Air Lines plane, forcing pilots to return to JFK in New York
An emergency slide fell off a Delta Air Lines jetliner shortly after takeoff Friday from New York, and pilots who felt a vibration in the plane circled back to land safely at JFK Airport.
Sophie Gregoire Trudeau on navigating post-political life, co-parenting and freedom
Sophie Gregoire Trudeau says there is 'still so much love' between her and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, as they navigate their post-separation relationship co-parenting their three children.
Last letters of pioneering climber who died on Everest reveal dark side of mountaineering
George Mallory is renowned for being one of the first British mountaineers to attempt to scale the dizzying heights of Mount Everest during the 1920s. Nearly a century later, newly digitized letters shed light on Mallory’s hopes and fears about ascending Everest.
Loud boom in Hamilton caused by propane tank, police say
A loud explosion was heard across Hamilton on Friday after a propane tank was accidentally destroyed and detonated at a local scrap metal yard, police say.
Local Spotlight
DonAir force takes over at Oilers playoff games
As if a 4-0 Edmonton Oilers lead in Game 1 of their playoff series with the Los Angeles Kings wasn't good enough, what was announced at Rogers Place during the next TV timeout nearly blew the roof off the downtown arena.
'It was instant karma': Viral video captures failed theft attempt in Nanaimo, B.C.
Mounties in Nanaimo, B.C., say two late-night revellers are lucky their allegedly drunken antics weren't reported to police after security cameras captured the men trying to steal a heavy sign from a downtown business.
Fergus, Ont. man feels nickel-and-dimed for $0.05 property tax bill
A property tax bill is perplexing a small townhouse community in Fergus, Ont.
Twins from Toronto were Canada's top two female finishers at this year's Boston Marathon
When identical twin sisters Kim and Michelle Krezonoski were invited to compete against some of the world’s most elite female runners at last week’s Boston Marathon, they were in disbelief.
Mystery surrounds giant custom Canucks jerseys worn by Lions Gate Bridge statues
The giant stone statues guarding the Lions Gate Bridge have been dressed in custom Vancouver Canucks jerseys as the NHL playoffs get underway.
'I'm committed': Oilers fan won't cut hair until Stanley Cup comes to Edmonton
A local Oilers fan is hoping to see his team cut through the postseason, so he can cut his hair.
'It's not my father's body!' Wrong man sent home after death on family vacation in Cuba
A family from Laval, Que. is looking for answers... and their father's body. He died on vacation in Cuba and authorities sent someone else's body back to Canada.
'Once is too many times': Education assistants facing rising violence in classrooms
A former educational assistant is calling attention to the rising violence in Alberta's classrooms.
What is capital gains tax? How is it going to affect the economy and the younger generations?
The federal government says its plan to increase taxes on capital gains is aimed at wealthy Canadians to achieve “tax fairness.”