Carbon price could be 'off the table' by the next election after rollback for heating oil: Liberal strategist

In the wake of the federal government announcing changes to the carbon tax, a former Liberal Party strategist is predicting that the carbon price might not be part of the Liberals’ plan when the next election rolls around.

During the Sunday Strategy Panel on CTV’s Question Period, David Herle, former pollster and chief campaign strategiest for the Liberal Party under former Prime Minister Paul Martin, said that he thinks the carbon price could be off the table by the next election.

Earlier this week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced changes to the federal carbon price, including a three-year pause on deliveries of heating oil in all jursidictions where the federal fuel charge is in effect.

“I think this is just the first of a lot of shaving off the edge of the carbon tax,” Herle told CTV’s Vassy Kapelos in regards to the news.

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He referred to the carbon price as a “big policy mistake,” adding that they may have to “chip away at it.”

“I think that there's actually a reasonable supposition the carbon tax itself is off the table by the time of the next election.”

The federal carbon pricing program, which places a price on each tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions with the aim of cutting down on emissions, has been a cornerstone of the federal government’s platform for years. The change announced Thursday comes in the face of slipping popularity in Atlantic Canada.

When asked if the electoral significance of Canadians whose votes are centred around climate policy may be decreased going into an election due to the cost of living crisis, Herle said climate change is likely not the top issue for most Canadians.

“It's never been important. It's not a significant voting factor for most Canadians,” Herle said. “And it won't be the number one thing on almost anybody's mind going into the ballot box.”

As recently as the 2021 federal election, climate change was high on many voters’ minds. A 2021 survey from Nanos Research, commissioned by CTV News, found that the environment was the second-ranking concern for Canadians in terms of policy issues on their mind at the ballot box, beaten out only by the economy.

The carbon price has been divisive. A survey conducted by Nanos Research for CTV News last spring found that just over half of respondents believed the carbon tax was ineffective at combatting climate change.

Kathleen Monk, a former NDP strategist and director of communications to the late Jack Layton, said in Sunday’s panel that she would be “really surprised” if the carbon price was eliminated completely.

Kory Teneycke, former director of communications for Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s former campaign manager, criticized the move to step away from the carbon price, suggesting that it could anger constituents who want to receive more of a break from the carbon price as well as constituents who support the carbon price as a climate policy.

“They were bleeding out of one side of their voter coalition, now I think they’re going to be bleeding out of both sides of their voter coalition,” he said.

Watch the full Sunday Strategy Panel in the playlist above.