Economy, not the pandemic, top influencing issue for Canadian voters: Nanos survey
Should Prime Minister Justin Trudeau call an election this summer, the issue that will have the most influence in the minds of voters will be the economy, according to a new survey by Nanos Research.
More than 28 per cent of those surveyed said that the economy would be most important policy issue that will sway their vote in a potential election, outranking the environment and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
The survey, commissioned by CTV News, indicated that the second-ranking issue on the voters’ minds was the environment, with 17 per cent of respondents putting it as their top concern.
As for other top-ranking issues: 16 per cent said the federal deficit will sway their vote and 13 per cent said health care would be their main motivating issue. The pandemic came in fifth in voters’ minds, with just 10 per cent of respondents indicating that the fight against COVID-19 still ranks atop their policy priorities.
Following behind these issues were reconciliation with Indigenous people, which seven per cent of respondents said was their top influencing file, and the desire for a new government, which was the top issue for two per cent of those surveyed.
“It looks like Canadians are starting to pivot away from the pandemic,” said Nanos Research's Nik Nanos in an interview on CTV News Channel Wednesday. “And during the next election, they're going to want to hear about the economy and jobs. They're going to want to hear about the environment, about the deficit, about health care.”
Canadians who live in the Prairies felt the most strongly about the importance of the economy and political parties’ handling of finances, while those in British Columbia felt that the environment ranked supreme.
The influence of the pandemic was noted the most strongly in Ontario, while Atlantic Canadian respondents mentioned health care and reconciliation more often when the responses are broken down by region.
Over the course of the pandemic, Canadians experienced both a health and an economic crisis, with lockdowns and public health restrictions leading to business shutdowns and job losses.
While the economy largely appears to be rebounding as society continues to reopen with increasing vaccination rates, the country is in a deep deficit, brought on by the federal government’s deployment of mass-scale economic aid programs aimed at keeping Canadians and businesses afloat during the pandemic. These included the now-ended Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) and the ongoing wage and rent subsidies, which are in place until Sept. 25.
Throughout the COVID-19 fight, the opposition parties have been critical of the government’s economic measures, with the Conservatives raising concerns about the ballooning deficit, while the New Democrats pushed for the aid programs to be extended or expanded further.
Trudeau and Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland continue to defend their multi-billion dollar economic stimulus approach, with cabinet ministers out making numerous spending announcements touting aspects of the budget since it passed when Parliament adjourned for the summer.
TRUDEAU GEARING UP FOR VOTE?
In overall national polling, Nanos’s latest polling data shows the Liberals at 38.1 per cent, the Conservatives at 23.6 per cent, and the NDP at 20.4 per cent support.
Nanos said the Liberals are experiencing a “vaccination halo,” as a result of Canadians feeling a sense of relief as more and more are experiencing a two-dose summer, which he connects to the fewer number of those surveyed who listed the pandemic as a top worry.
In Ottawa, the speculation of an August or September election call is intensifying and Trudeau’s ongoing post-second dose travels across the country are fuelling anticipation, as he continues to dodge questions about whether Canadians should expect to go to the polls soon. Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are also starting to ramp-up their travel for announcements and events.
“If the prime minister is out there talking like he's campaigning, and travelling like he's campaigning, and now he and his ministers are spending like they're campaigning, [it’s a] pretty good bet the lawn signs can't be far off,” said strategic communications consultant and principal at Earnscliffe, Greg Weston in an interview with CTV News.
Weston added that while politicians trying to sway voters with their own money is a practice “as old as democracy itself,” the federal government has a case to make about going to the polls if it’s a question of who should have the mandate to govern the country through the post-pandemic recovery.
Should the much-speculated campaign kick off, this survey indicates that voters’ minds may be more attuned to what’s ahead and the economic rebuilding that’ll be needed, as well as the looming climate emergency, rather than looking back on how the Liberals handled the pandemic or how parties propose to better prepare for the next one.
“Canadians want to hear about what's going to happen in the future…. it provides an opportunity for the Conservatives and the New Democrats to start talking about other issues like the economy and jobs,” Nanos said.
METHODOLOGY:
Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land-and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,051 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, between June 30th and July 5th, 2021 as part of an omnibus survey.
Participants were randomly recruited by telephone using live agents and administered a survey online. The sample included both land-and cell-lines across Canada. The results were statistically checked and weighted by age and gender using the latest census information and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada.
Individuals were randomly called using random digit dialling with a maximum of five call backs.
The margin of error for this survey is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
This study was commissioned by CTV News and the research was conducted by Nanos Research.
IN DEPTH
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
'Democracy requires constant vigilance' Trudeau testifies at inquiry into foreign election interference in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified Wednesday before the national public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's electoral processes, following a day of testimony from top cabinet ministers about allegations of meddling in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Recap all the prime minister had to say.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
U.S. schools turn to artificial intelligence to spot guns as companies press lawmakers for state funds
Kansas could soon offer up to US$5 million in grants for schools to outfit surveillance cameras with artificial intelligence systems that can spot people carrying guns. But the governor needs to approve the expenditures and the schools must meet some very specific criteria.
Air quality advisories issued in 5 provinces, 1 territory
Air quality advisories are in effect across Western Canada as smoky conditions plague some areas, according to the latest forecasts. Here's where.
Just how bad are ultraprocessed foods? Here are 5 things to know
Many foods fall under the category of ultraprocessed foods, depending on their exact ingredients. This type of food has been studied a lot lately, and the results aren’t great.
No refund for travellers who cancelled flight already scrapped by airline: regulator
Four years on, the controversy over whether airlines owed refunds to passengers after cancelling hundreds of thousands of flights during the pandemic continues to simmer, aggravated by a sluggish, opaque complaints process.
opinion Harry and Meghan's Nigerian adventure: traditional attire to warm welcomes
For her latest column on CTVNews.ca, royal commentator Afua Hagan writes about Prince Harry and Meghan Markle's recent visit to Nigeria, calling it a 'deeply meaningful campaign' that was about aligning their ongoing efforts to foster mental-health awareness and promoting the Invictus Games.
'Oh my God, you're my brother': Man in his 70s discovers 6 unknown siblings
After receiving a DNA kit one Christmas from his son-in-law, Hugh McCormick soon discovered that he had six unknown siblings, with whom he shared the same birth parents.
'It happened so fast': Evacuees describe fleeing Fort Nelson, B.C., wildfire
Thousands have been forced to flee a wildfire burning near Fort Nelson. Meanwhile, some experienced volunteers are staying behind to fight the fire.
Rates of cancer declining in Canada, but more work needed to save lives: projections
A new study projecting declining rates of cancer cases and deaths in Canada demonstrates the success of prevention and early detection programs, but also highlights areas where more work is needed to save and prolong lives, researchers say.
DEVELOPING Michael Cohen takes the stand as testimony in Trump hush money case enters 4th week
The star prosecution witness in Donald Trump's hush money trial is set to take the stand Monday with testimony that could help shape the outcome of the first criminal case against an American president.
Local Spotlight
Want to boost your trivia score? Learn from these high school trivia whiz kids
English, history, entertainment, math and geography: high school trivia teams could be quizzed on any of it when they compete at the Reach for the Top Nationals in Ottawa in June.
Ottawa pizzeria places among top 20 deep-dish pizzas in the world at international competition
An Ottawa pizzeria is being recognized as one of the top 20 deep-dish pizzas in the world.
From outer space? Sask. farmers baffled after discovering strange wreckage in field
A family of fifth generation farmers from Ituna, Sask. are trying to find answers after discovering several strange objects lying on their land.
Wilfrid Laurier football player drafted despite only playing 27 games in his entire life
A Listowel, Ont. man, drafted by the Hamilton Tigercats last week, is also getting looks from the NFL, despite only playing 27 games of football in his life.
Federal government bans watercraft from Manitoba lake popular with tourists
The threat of zebra mussels has prompted the federal government to temporarily ban watercraft from a Manitoba lake popular with tourists.
Toronto-area dessert shop featured by Keith Lee forced to move after zoning complaint
A small Ajax dessert shop that recently received a glowing review from celebrity food critic Keith Lee is being forced to move after a zoning complaint was made following the social media influencer’s visit last month.
'Oh Crap!' New exhibit at Canada Science and Technology Museum explores human waste
The Canada Science and Technology Museum is inviting visitors to explore their poop. A new exhibition opens at the Ottawa museum on Friday called, 'Oh Crap! Rethinking human waste.'
Regina police hope new biometric monitoring system will save lives in detention facility
The Regina Police Service says it is the first in Saskatchewan and possibly Canada to implement new technology in its detention facility that will offer real-time monitoring of detainees’ vital health metrics.
Her SUV was stolen in Montreal. A Good Samaritan on Facebook helped her get it back
Just as she had feared, a restaurant owner from eastern Quebec who visited Montreal had her SUV stolen, but says it was all thanks to the kindness of strangers on the internet — not the police — that she got it back.