Liberals surging as CAQ falls to third in new poll, PQ remains in lead

New Quebec Liberal Party Leader Pablo Rodriguez, centre, reacts on stage alongside former Quebec Premiers Philippe Couillard, left, and Jean Charest, right, at the Quebec Liberal Party Leadership Conference in Quebec City, Saturday, June 14, 2025. (Joel Ryan/The Canadian Press)

The effect of new Liberal (PLQ) Leader Pablo Rodriguez is already being felt on the Quebec political scene.

A poll conducted just after his leadership victory shows a rise in voting intentions for the provincial Liberals at the expense of François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ).

According to the Pallas Data poll published on Tuesday, the Parti Québécois (PQ) is still leading in voting intentions with 31 per cent.

The Liberals, now led by Rodriguez, are not far behind with 26 per cent.

The previous Pallas Data poll, published in March 2025, put the Liberals at 22 per cent.

The shockwaves caused by the arrival of Rodriguez are shaking the CAQ’s already fragile support, which finds itself in third place, 11 points behind the Quebec Liberal Party.

In March, the CAQ was at 20 per cent of voting intentions, according to the same polling firm.

Legault’s party is statistically tied with Éric Duhaime’s Conservative Party (PCQ).

Québec Solidaire is in last place with 12 per cent of voting intentions.

The poll also shows that the Liberals have regained support among francophone voters, at 19 per cent.

The previous survey by the same firm had them at 14 per cent.

The Liberals are now in second place among francophones, but still lag behind the PQ, which holds a dominant 38 per cent.

A Léger poll published in May, before the end of the Liberal race, indicated that if the PLQ chose Rodriguez as its leader, it would rise to 31 per cent of voting intentions, statistically tied with the Parti Québécois.

The general election is set to take place in October 2026.

The survey, commissioned by poll aggregator Qc125, was conducted from June 14 to 16, 2025, among a random sample of 1,085 Quebec respondents aged 18 and over.

The margin of error for the entire sample is three per cent, 19 times out of 20.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on June 17, 2025.