Edmonton weather: Sunny and mild today, but not for long

Cory Edel tells us when the snow will begin to fall in Edmonton.

Well... there’s snow coming, that much is almost certain. The only real question now is: How much will accumulate?

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It’ll be a pleasant Tuesday with sunny skies, light wind and a mid-to-late afternoon temperature around 7 C.

But, it’s the proverbial calm before the storm.

An area of low pressure will develop over central Alberta on Wednesday bringing increasing cloud to the Edmonton region through the morning and gusty wind through the day.

We’re expecting gusts around 40km/h starting by late morning and continuing through into the evening before dying down Wednesday night.

Here’s how I think the precipitation situation will play out:

There’s a very good chance of some showers late in the afternoon and those will transition over to mixed precipitation and then snow at some point Wednesday evening/night.

That snow will likely continue in the Edmonton area through Thursday morning before tapering off in the afternoon.

Raw model output for snowfall totals is pretty useless at this time of year and especially given the current setup. So, I’m not sold on the 10ish centimetres that the models are spitting out.

How much snow is on the ground when we wake up Thursday morning will depend on how long the snow melts on contact with the ground before starting to accumulate AND how long that lengthy band of snow actually stays over the area.

I DO think it’s likely that we’ll get at least a couple centimetres of accumulation, particularly on grassy areas.

Roads (especially high-traffic ones) should mostly be wet and then icy Thursday morning.

As of now, the snow zone is expected to stretch from Grande Prairie southeast to Lloydminster.

Edmonton is on the edge of that zone. So, while it’s LIKELY that we’ll see snow... it’s still not quite a guarantee.

BUT...as I wrote off the top...it’s almost certain.

Another area of low pressure will develop slightly further south on Friday and we’ll be on the northern edge of the precipitation from that system.

So, there’s another chance for flurries/light snow on Friday. But, this time, it’ll mainly be areas south of Edmonton that get the best chance for snow Friday.

Daytime highs will climb just barely above 0 C Thursday/Friday and then we should be in the 2 to 5 C range for highs this coming weekend (depending on how much snow is on the ground).

There are also strong indications of a push of warm air for early next week that should boost afternoon temperatures into the 6 to 11 C range for highs Monday/Tuesday.

Here’s the forecast for Edmonton and area:

Today - Mainly sunny.

High: 7

Tonight - A few clouds.

9pm: -1

Wednesday - Mostly cloudy. 70% chance of afternoon showers turning to snow in the evening & overnight.

Wind becoming SE 20 gusting to 40 through the afternoon and evening.

Morning Low: -6

Afternoon High: 5

Thursday - 70% chance of snow in the morning, then cloudy.

Morning Low: -1

Afternoon High: 1

Friday - Cloudy. 40% chance of snow.

Morning Low: -2

Afternoon High: 1

Saturday - Partly cloudy.

Morning Low: -5

Afternoon High: 3

Sunday - Partly cloudy.

Morning Low: -8

Afternoon High: 4