Canada’s housing shortfall could widen by another 500,000 units within just two years if immigration continues at its current pace, according to a recent report from TD Economics.
In the report, economists Beata Caranci, James Orlando and Rishi Sondhi note that Canada’s population grew by 1.2 million over the past year, as of the second quarter of 2023 — more than double the pace of population growth in 2019 and years prior.
And the federal government has set its sights on welcoming another 500,000 people per year by 2025 in hopes of addressing labour shortages and counterbalancing the country’s aging demographic.
But the economists question whether the “sudden swing in population has gone too far, too fast.”
Even before this “sudden influx” of newcomers, the economists say Canada’s future housing stock was forecast to become less affordable across the country.
And if the government’s current high-growth immigration strategy continues, they estimate the country’s housing shortfall could widen by about half a million units in just two years’ time.
“Recent government policies to accelerate construction are unlikely to offer a stopgap in this short time period due to the natural lags that exist in adjusting supply,” the report states.
The National Bank of Canada released a report on Wednesday that echoed those points.
“The federal government’s decision to open the immigration floodgates during the most aggressive monetary tightening cycle in a generation has created a record imbalance between housing supply and demand,” National Bank chief economist Stéfane Marion said in a note to investors.
“As housing affordability pressures continue to mount across the country, we believe Ottawa should consider revising its immigration targets to allow supply to catch up with demand."
A recent BMO analysis suggests that for every one per cent increase in population, housing prices typically increase by roughly three per cent each year. It points out that in recent years, Canada’s population has been growing at an average annual pace of 1.5 per cent per year — and a whopping 2.7 per cent in 2022 alone — which is consistent over time with five per cent annual home price gains on top of inflation.
Mikal Skuterud, a professor of economics at the University of Waterloo and the director of the Canadian Labour Economics Forum, praised the banks for presenting facts as opposed to taking a more subjective approach to immigration in the reports.
He noted, however, that the issues of housing affordability and limited housing supply would exist regardless of the current pace of immigration in Canada, but immigration is likely a contributing factor.
“On the housing front, there are underlying issues there that are longstanding and/or independent of immigration levels,” Skuterud told CTVNews.ca in an interview.
“For sure, immigration is not helping the issue — it's probably exacerbating it.”
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has estimated the country needs to build 3.5 million more homes by 2030 than it is currently on track for, to help achieve some semblance of housing affordability.
The TD report stresses that social pressures are not limited to housing and that other areas like health-care and social support systems are also not keeping up with Canada’s population expansion.
In 2021, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development estimated that Canada ranked 31 of 34 countries in the number of acute care hospital beds on a per capita basis.
The economists say this is “unlikely to have improved” given Canada’s rapid population growth, despite provincial and federal governments’ efforts to recruit more health-care workers and fund more hospital beds.
“Greater thought and estimation needs to occur on what’s a true absorption rate for population growth. Policy cannot be singularly focused on the perceived demands of employers, and even educational institutions,” they suggest in the report.
Skuterud said his “biggest concern” is that Canadians are “entirely focused” on the housing market rather than what’s happening in the economy as a whole.
“What is happening in the housing market is happening much more broadly,” he said.
Instead, Skuterud said Canadians must focus on the bigger picture, or the country’s capital stock as a whole, as opposed to just residential capital, which refers to housing, when envisioning a more prosperous Canada.
“Capital includes business capital, which is like machinery and equipment, intellectual property, factories, buildings, and it includes social infrastructure, a lot of which is government owned, so that's like public transportation systems, health-care systems, schools,” he explained.
“All this kind of capital is a huge part of what allows Canada to be rich and productive.”
In a paper released in June, Skuterud and his co-authors argue that Canada is not well-positioned to leverage heightened immigration to boost GDP per capita, primarily due to weak capital investment and quantity-quality tradeoffs in immigrant selection.
In other words, Skuterud said Canada is not investing enough in machinery, equipment and technology, which would reduce the demand for labour and increase productivity.
At the same time, he said Canada is relying on an increasing number of temporary foreign workers (TFWs), including foreign students, to fill in labour gaps at low wages as opposed to paying domestic workers more or bringing in high-skilled immigrants to boost the economy and overall productivity in Canada.
According to the TD report, there was a 68 per cent jump in the number of positions approved for TFWs in 2022 due to the federal government’s easing of access to low-skilled TFWs.
This, Skuterud said, does not boost the GDP per capita, or breakdown of the country's economic output per person, but rather undermines labour productivity and average economic living standards in the population. According to another recent report from TD, Canada has lagged behind the U.S. and other advanced economies in terms of real GDP per capita despite recent years of “headline growth.”.
“When the population grows faster than the capital stock, then there's less capital per person and that makes us poor,” Skuterud said.
In an emailed statement, Immigration Refugees and Citizenship Canada told CTVNews.ca that its 2023-2025 Immigration Levels Plan "seeks to strike a delicate balance of needs for the country and our international obligations."
The department said the plan focuses on attracting skilled workers who will contribute to Canada's economy and tackle labour shortages, while recognizing the importance of family reunification, facilitating the arrival of spouses and common-law partners and helping the world’s most vulnerable populations through refugee resettlement and other humanitarian responses.
The federal government takes into account "extensive engagement" with provincial and territorial representatives, as well as public opinion research and stakeholder consultations, in setting the number of permanent residents that Canada plans to welcome, IRCC added.
"The Government of Canada continues to work with provinces and territories to ensure Canada is well positioned to attract and retain newcomers, who make significant contributions to our communities economically, socially, and culturally," the statement reads.
"This includes an ongoing commitment to ensure we are making housing accessible and affordable, and working with provinces and territories to ensure we have the right resources and supports available to newcomers to ensure they can succeed in Canada."
New Housing and Infrastructure Minister Sean Fraser, who previously served as Canada’s immigration minister, has said closing the door to newcomers is not the solution to the country's housing crisis and has instead endorsed building more homes to accommodate higher immigration flows.
"The answer is, at least in part, to continue to build more stock," Fraser told reporters after being sworn into his new role.
On Tuesday, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre slammed the Liberal government’s immigration strategy, but did not answer questions about whether he would consider reducing the government’s current immigration targets.If elected, he said a Conservative government would base its immigration policy on the needs of private-sector employers, the degree to which charities plan to support refugees and the desire for family reunification.
"I'll make sure we have housing and healthcare so that when people come here they have a roof overhead and care when they need it," Poilievre told reporters on Parliament Hill.
"I'll make sure that it's easier for employers to fill genuine job vacancies they cannot fill."
With files from The Canadian Press
Liberal MP Pam Damoff says she won't run again in the next federal election, saying she has experienced misogyny, disrespectful dialogue in politics and threats to her life.
Inspections are underway at more than one Loblaws location in Ottawa after complaints were filed about tall plexiglass barriers.
Starting in September, public servants in the core public administration will be required to work in the office a minimum of three days a week. The Treasury Board Secretariat says executives will need to be in the office four days per week.
As multiple Durham police cruisers were chasing a robbery suspect on the wrong side of Highway 401 Monday night, an Ontario Provincial Police officer shared his concerns, telling a dispatcher, "Someone's going to get hurt."
The number of young people experiencing eating disorders surged during the height of the pandemic as the social and economic costs skyrocketed too, a new pan-Canadian report has found.
Archeologists have unearthed the skeletons of five people, missing their hands and feet, at a former Nazi military base in Poland.
An unrepentant Pierre Poilievre returned to the House of Commons on Wednesday to pepper the prime minister about his drug decriminalization policies after being booted the day prior for refusing to take back calling Justin Trudeau 'wacko' over his approach to the issue.
Victims of a Brantford, Ont., woman who was sentenced to house arrest earlier this year for defrauding and deceiving doulas say they’re not surprised she’s been apprehended again on similar charges.
A two-year-old child died after a strong gust of wind sent the bounce house he was in airborne and into a neighbouring lot in central Arizona, the Pinal County Sheriff's Office said.
Victims of a Brantford, Ont., woman who was sentenced to house arrest earlier this year for defrauding and deceiving doulas say they’re not surprised she’s been apprehended again on similar charges.
As protestors set up tent encampments at universities across Canada and the U.S.in support of Palestine, London, Ont.’s Western University finds itself no exception on Wednesday.
A judge has rejected a request from two McGill University students for a court injunction to limit where protesters can go on campus.
In a first-of-its-kind case, a B.C. tribunal has ruled on a dispute involving the non-consensual sharing of intimate images, awarding damages and issuing orders that the photos be destroyed and taken offline.
Dozens of London Drugs stores in Western Canada remained closed for the fourth straight day following a "cybersecurity incident."
A young moose that made its way through the Fredericton Tuesday had to be euthanized, according to the province’s Department of Natural Resources and Energy Development.
Counter-protesters “forcefully attacked” a pro-Palestinian encampment at the University of California, Los Angeles, early Wednesday, and activists clashed with police officers who destroyed their tents at the University of Wisconsin in Madison.
Colombia says it will break diplomatic relations with Israel on Thursday over its actions in Gaza.
The Arizona Legislature approved a repeal of a long-dormant ban on nearly all abortions Wednesday, advancing the bill to Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, who is expected to sign it.
Prosecutors asked for a September retrial for Harvey Weinstein during a hearing Wednesday in Manhattan, the disgraced movie mogul's first court appearance since his 2020 rape conviction was overturned by an appeals court last week.
Warsaw's main synagogue was attacked with firebombs in the night by an unknown perpetrator, but sustained minimal damage and nobody was hurt, Poland's chief rabbi said Wednesday.
Nathaly Paola Castro Torres has a rare disorder called Laron syndrome that is caused by a genetic mutation. It stunts her growth but also provides a hidden silver lining: Her body is protected from chronic diseases such as cancer that often take life away long before old age.
An unrepentant Pierre Poilievre returned to the House of Commons on Wednesday to pepper the prime minister about his drug decriminalization policies after being booted the day prior for refusing to take back calling Justin Trudeau 'wacko' over his approach to the issue.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says his party will support the federal budget, ending any speculation that the party could pull out of its deal with the minority Liberal government.
Starting in September, public servants in the core public administration will be required to work in the office a minimum of three days a week. The Treasury Board Secretariat says executives will need to be in the office four days per week.
Citizens' Services Minister Terry Beech says 1,200 seniors have already visited a dentist and had their claims processed by the federal government's new dental care plan.
The number of young people experiencing eating disorders surged during the height of the pandemic as the social and economic costs skyrocketed too, a new pan-Canadian report has found.
The highly contagious norovirus is spreading across Canada, with some symptoms overlapping with other viruses. CTVNews.ca spoke with a health expert to find out how you can tell you have norovirus, the most common form of stomach flu, and what to do if you have it.
Nathaly Paola Castro Torres has a rare disorder called Laron syndrome that is caused by a genetic mutation. It stunts her growth but also provides a hidden silver lining: Her body is protected from chronic diseases such as cancer that often take life away long before old age.
In a first-of-its-kind case, a B.C. tribunal has ruled on a dispute involving the non-consensual sharing of intimate images, awarding damages and issuing orders that the photos be destroyed and taken offline.
A wealthy Silicon Valley-backed campaign to build a green city for up to 400,000 people in the San Francisco Bay Area has submitted what it says are enough signatures to qualify the initiative for the November election.
The career of the Godfather of Canadian Hip-Hop, aka Maestro Fresh Wes, is getting its close-up in a new exhibition that opens May 15 at the National Music Centre.
Melissa McCarthy was completely unbothered by a comment Barbra Streisand left on her Instagram in which the legendary singer asked the Oscar-nominated actress if she was on Ozempic. In fact, she took it as a compliment.
The name of the project has not been officially released although it’s widely believed to be the Netflix series FUBAR.
Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem says he doesn't think the federal budget tabled last month will have much of an effect on inflation.
Plans to use a renovated cruise ship to house more than 600 workers as they build a liquefied natural gas facility near Squamish, B.C., have been voted down by the local council.
Loblaw Cos. Ltd.'s new chief executive said he's 'cautiously optimistic' that the company will be able to come to an agreement on the grocery code of conduct.
Have you ever wanted to rekindle an old friendship, but stopped short of actually reaching out?
A month after eight Norwegian Cruise Line passengers were stranded in Africa when their ship left without them because they were late getting back, a U.S. couple – ages 84 and 81 – were also left behind by the cruise line in Spain.
The City of Toronto is lowering adoption fees until Sunday to find homes for a number of dogs with “ridiculous, bizarre and terrible names” living in the North York crowded shelter.
Tampa Bay Lightning coach Jon Cooper apologized for making what he called an inappropriate analogy of putting skirts on goalies.
Oilers forward Zach Hyman hoping to teach 'Shaq Hyman' how to skate: 'For free'
The Nashville Predators kept their season alive with a 2-1 victory over the Vancouver Canucks in Game 5 of their first-round playoff series Tuesday.
Drivers in Saskatchewan will now lose their licence for a week and their vehicle for a month if they are caught committing certain high-speed and dangerous offences on the road.
Rolls-Royce is vastly expanding its factory in Chichester, England. The BMW subsidiary is adding five new buildings with construction planned to start next year.
On a three-lane test track along the Monongahela River, an 18-wheel tractor-trailer rounded a curve. No one was on board.
A group of SaskPower workers recently received special recognition at the legislature – for their efforts in repairing one of Saskatchewan's largest power plants after it was knocked offline for months following a serious flood last summer.
A police officer on Montreal's South Shore anonymously donated a kidney that wound up drastically changing the life of a schoolteacher living on dialysis.
Since 1932, Montreal's Henri Henri has been filled to the brim with every possible kind of hat, from newsboy caps to feathered fedoras.
Police in Oak Bay, B.C., had to close a stretch of road Sunday to help an elephant seal named Emerson get safely back into the water.
Out of more than 9,000 entries from over 2,000 breweries in 50 countries, a handful of B.C. brews landed on the podium at the World Beer Cup this week.
Raneem, 10, lives with a neurological condition and liver disease and needs Cholbam, a medication, for a longer and healthier life.
The lawyer for a residential school survivor leading a proposed class-action defamation lawsuit against the Catholic Church over residential schools says the court action is a last resort.
Mounties in Nanaimo, B.C., say two late-night revellers are lucky their allegedly drunken antics weren't reported to police after security cameras captured the men trying to steal a heavy sign from a downtown business.
A property tax bill is perplexing a small townhouse community in Fergus, Ont.
Authorities have arrested a 44-year-old woman who praised last October's attack on Israel during a rally in downtown Vancouver.
A team of women will be setting sail for the America's Cup in Barcelona this fall. It marks the first time women have been able to compete in the 173-year-old sailing competition.
B.C.'s police watchdog is looking into an incident that led to one person being seriously injured while in Vancouver police custody, but says it was weeks before it was notified.
As multiple Durham police cruisers were chasing a robbery suspect on the wrong side of Highway 401 Monday night, an Ontario Provincial Police officer shared his concerns, telling a dispatcher, "Someone's going to get hurt."
A suspect in a fatal shooting in Toronto’s east end last summer has been arrested in Charlottetown, just one week after he topped a list of Canada’s most wanted fugitives.
Woodbridge resident Edwin Alvarado would have turned 51 today.
The Alberta Court of Appeal has denied the request of an Airdrie man to set aside his murder conviction in the fatal shooting of his neighbour in 2019.
A new emergency shelter for women and children broke ground in Olds, Alta. on Tuesday, named in honour of a young mother who was killed in a case of alleged domestic violence.
With Mother's Day quickly approaching, OpenTable has released its list of the 100 Top Brunch Restaurants in Canada for 2024, in case you and your family hope to celebrate the day with a meal out.
Starting in September, public servants in the core public administration will be required to work in the office a minimum of three days a week. The Treasury Board Secretariat says executives will need to be in the office four days per week.
Two Ottawa non-profits, both serving the autism community, have suddenly closed their doors within the past week, leaving parents with fewer supports in the city.
Inspections are underway at more than one Loblaws location in Ottawa after complaints were filed about tall plexiglass barriers.
A judge has rejected a request from two McGill University students for a court injunction to limit where protesters can go on campus.
Even though the Quebec advisory committee on gender identity has yet to make its recommendations, Education Minister Bernard Drainville has decided to ban gender-neutral toilets and changing rooms in public schools.
A 29-year-old woman has been arrested in the death of a 42-year-old woman in Montreal's Pointe-aux-Trembles district.
A man is in life-threatening condition after a Wednesday afternoon stabbing in Edmonton's core.
Edmonton Fire Rescue Services (EFRS) announced Wednesday morning Joe Zatylny will step down as its chief on May 10.
Oilers forward Zach Hyman hoping to teach 'Shaq Hyman' how to skate: 'For free'
Local police say officers arrested Michael Bebee, the most wanted fugitive in Canada, in Charlottetown, P.E.I., Tuesday night.
A young moose that made its way through the Fredericton Tuesday had to be euthanized, according to the province’s Department of Natural Resources and Energy Development.
For the next month, thousands of shoppers from across the country plan to get their groceries anywhere other than Loblaws-owned stores. The move is an attempt to get the box chain to lower its prices, as frustration grows over the high price of food.
Defence lawyers told court they will argue alleged serial killer Jeremy Skibicki is not criminally responsible for the deaths of four Indigenous women by way of a mental disorder.
A motion before Winnipeg’s public works committee could make it easier for shoppers who stocked up on bulk packs of toilet paper and chicken breast to exit one of the city’s bustling Costco locations.
A pesky insect is gearing up for its heyday.
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe says his government 'will respond' to the Canada Revenue Agency when it concludes its audit of the province, but that his position is Saskatchewan doesn't owe Ottawa any money.
The search is over for a Regina dog with health issues that had gone missing at the end of March.
A group of SaskPower workers recently received special recognition at the legislature – for their efforts in repairing one of Saskatchewan's largest power plants after it was knocked offline for months following a serious flood last summer.
Victims of a Brantford, Ont., woman who was sentenced to house arrest earlier this year for defrauding and deceiving doulas say they’re not surprised she’s been apprehended again on similar charges.
Patio season is just getting started in Guelph, but some businesses are not on board with expanding their footprint this summer.
Nearly 1,500 Waterloo Region high school students have been suspended over out-of-date vaccination records.
Saskatchewan employers will be required to tell new hires if they face a risk of violence in the workplace and to take actions against it starting on May 17.
Saskatchewan's scrap tire industry was top of mind again in Regina Tuesday as politicians and advocates continued to probe into how an American company became the province’s only recycler.
Police officers and cadaver dogs have begun searching the Saskatoon landfill for answers in the Mackenzie Lee Trottier case.
Police in Sault Ste. Marie are investigating two sudden deaths on Boundary Road.
The remains of a 44-year-old person were found Tuesday morning on Delamere Road in French River, Ontario Provincial Police said.
Terry Sutherland is trying to sell his home in Tweed, Ont., but he'll likely be hit by the capital gains tax rise.
As protestors set up tent encampments at universities across Canada and the U.S.in support of Palestine, London, Ont.’s Western University finds itself no exception on Wednesday.
Residents who live in the Hyde Park Place apartments in north London, Ont. said they are heartbroken after Old Oak Properties removed two geese nests, containing more than half a dozen eggs.
There is a time when the baseball diamond at Kettle Point First Nation was a gathering place for the community. However, that time has faded, much like the quality of the facility, and it is long overdue for an upgrade.
The man who police say killed Katherine Janeiro and left her body for friends to find, Robert MacQueen aka Bruce Ellis will stand trial for her murder.
A Barrie woman was all smiles after taking home a big lottery win to her husband.
Wasaga Beach will finally have its first high school. On Wednesday, the Town announced the state-of-the-art kindergarten to Grade 12 school project will go ahead.
An overseas manufacturer said it has developed electric vehicle batteries which can be charged in as much time as it takes to grab a coffee from Tim Horton's — and similar batteries are expected to be made by a Windsor-based EV research group sometime this year.
If you like engine revving, loud music and squealing tires, you could be landing yourself a ticket. That’s the message Wednesday from the Windsor Police Service as it launches the 2024 Anti-Noise Campaign.
A former Windsor denturist is being sent to jail for sexual assault.
A pro-Palestinian protest camp has formed at the University of Victoria in solidarity with the people of Gaza and with similar encampments that have sprung up on university and college campuses in opposition to the Israel-Hamas war.
The British Columbia government is spending more money to recruit and retain health-science workers, especially those in rural and remote communities.
Plans to use a renovated cruise ship to house more than 600 workers as they build a liquefied natural gas facility near Squamish, B.C., have been voted down by the local council.
Out of more than 9,000 entries from over 2,000 breweries in 50 countries, a handful of B.C. brews landed on the podium at the World Beer Cup this week.
An emaciated dachshund is now recovering thanks to a Good Samaritan who found the pup near a biking trail in Kelowna, according to the BC SPCA.
Search and rescue crews have been called in after a vehicle belonging to a missing senior was located near a rural intersection outside of Kelowna Tuesday.
Volunteers with ‘The Watch’ program in Lethbridge have been patrolling the city centre rain or shine for five years.
A Transportation Safety Board report says experience, recent training and safety equipment were key factors in a pilot surviving the crash of a firefighting plane south of Cranbrook in August 2022.
Facing a Tuesday night elimination game, Caelan Fitzpatrick responded with a hat trick to lead the Brooks Bandits past the Okotoks Oilers 5-1.
A group of Sault Ste. Marie YMCA supporters working to save the facility from closure received a glimmer of hope at this week’s city council meeting.
Another incident at Algoma Steel has union officials questioning safety protocols at Sault Ste. Marie’s steel plant.
The Ontario government is spending $45 million in the next three years to improve access and funding for the northern travel grant.
Richard Martin is spending this year's fishing season on land after he says a Royal Newfoundland Constabulary officer broke his left leg in three places during a protest last month that shut down the provincial legislature.
Tributes continue to pour in for Bob Cole as his family has confirmed a funeral will be held for the legendary broadcaster Friday in St. John's, N.L.
Legendary sportscaster Bob Cole was a Newfoundlander through and through, and his daughter says his connection to the province was 'everything' to him.
The Shopping Trends team is independent of the journalists at CTV News. We may earn a commission when you use our links to shop. Read about us.
