Trump's hopes hinge on less bluster, more work: organization

Republican presidential candidate, businessman Donald Trump talks during a campaign stop, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2015, in Keene, N.H. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

WASHINGTON -- Donald Trump expressed indifference a few days ago to the boring parts of campaigning -- like the rules about how delegates get chosen for the presidential nominating convention.

"Somebody said (to me), 'Well, there's a rule and another rule.' I don't care about rules, folks," Trump told a rally in Milwaukee.

"I go out, I campaign, we win."

If he wants to be president, however, he'd better start caring now.

That's because Trump's chances of imminently wrapping up the Republican nomination have dropped, especially with his loss Tuesday in Wisconsin, meaning his hope of victory now hinges on the hard, complex, organizational slog he professes to disdain.

His loud dominance of the TV airwaves isn't enough anymore. Quiet backroom success is now key.

Trump has about 46 per cent of delegates elected so far -- which means he needs to improve his pace by at least four percentage points, if he's to secure a majority victory in a convention vote. That's no easy task; his rival Sen. Ted Cruz is the one gaining momentum, winning most of the supporters who'd previously backed Marco Rubio.

To arrive at that magic number of 50-per-cent-plus one, Trump must court the supporters of candidates who've dropped out and organize county- and state-level bids to elect delegates who'll be loyal if the convention goes to multiple ballots. He also needs to get his people elected to the convention's powerful rule-making committee.

Anecdotal evidence abounds that he's losing on that organizational front.

The campaign has reportedly folded operations in states once their primaries are over. And that's just as the organizational battle begins to pick and choose convention delegates.

That's the context for Trump's disdainful remarks about rules: he was fuming over having won fewer delegates in Louisiana, despite having won the popular vote. He's going to the summer convention with fewer delegates from Louisiana than Cruz -- because Cruz won Rubio's delegates.

A similar dynamic is playing out in Colorado.

Reports also suggest he's been losing early votes for a powerful convention committee -- the 112-member body that will decide whether an outside candidate can seek the nomination on a second or third ballot, with the name of House Speaker Paul Ryan being floated as a potential dark horse.

One conservative organizer said the contrast was on display in Tuesday's primary. The Wisconsin-based organizer said Cruz had about 13 field offices in the state, compared to a couple for Trump.

"There's a huge disparity in the ground games," said Matt Batzel, who trains conservative activists through the group American Majority but is unaffiliated with any campaign.

"I think the Cruz campaign has a huge advantage when it comes to close races, where it really matters that you've identified your supporters and can turn them out to vote."

He said one example is Super PACs -- they've been more active in door-knocking against Trump.

Trump now needs to dominate New York on April 19, Maryland and Pennsylvania the following week and California in June to get over the 50-per-cent delegate threshold and win on the first convention ballot.

If he falls short, the U.S. would head to its first multi-ballot convention since 1952.

That's where it helps having supporters on the rules committee. Trump will need allies to protect him against efforts to gang-tackle him on the second ballot. Either way, this race gets won in convention halls -- not just on TV.

The laws of political gravity are starting to apply to Trump, says one political science professor who's written a book analyzing the 2012 campaign. In his book, "The Gamble," co-author John Sides described a so-called invisible primary consisting of party elites.

"The candidate they co-ordinate on usually goes on to win," the George Washington University professor said Wednesday.

"If he had had to run in a smaller field, or even one-on-one, it would have been much harder. You can see this now that the field has winnowed and he's facing real challenges."