Ontario wants to study building a 401 tunnel but one expert says there’s a much simpler fix than that

Doug Ford's government plans to study the idea of digging a tunnel under Highway 401. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darren Calabrese + THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young (CTV News file photo).

Ontario is studying the idea of digging a massive tunnel under Highway 401 but one economist says there’s a much simpler and proven way to reduce gridlock in Toronto — charge drivers at peak road times.

“The only response to traffic congestion, by which there’s really any evidence, is congestion pricing,” said Matthew Turner, a professor of economics at Brown University and former University of Toronto professor. “The problem is not road capacity, it’s road capacity at peak times.”

Premier Doug Ford has promised to build a traffic tunnel spanning from Mississauga and Brampton in the west to Scarborough and Markham in the east, despite criticism from opposition leaders.

A feasibility study on the idea is planned and the deadline for firms to participate in the formal Requests for Proposal process officially passed on Thursday.

The government has previously said that the study won’t be completed until 2027. But experts say no matter what the study finds, the fundamental problem isn’t how many lanes exist — but rather when they are being used.

‘You add capacity, it gets filled up’:

“My first reaction is that Toronto needs more transportation capacity,” Turner said. “This is probably a very expensive way to get it, that it’ll take so long to build that it’s not even relevant to talk about it.”

Turner has studied urban congestion for decades and says building new roads or tunnels simply doesn’t work if the goal is to reduce traffic jams.

“Los Angeles has been trying to build its way out of traffic congestion for 60 years,” he said, pointing to the Santa Monica Freeway as a prime example of a project that keeps expanding but delivers only temporary relief. “What happens in Los Angeles is typical. You add capacity. It gets filled up. More people get to move around, but you still have problems with traffic congestion.”

Ford backs tunnel while critics call it ‘imaginary’

Ford first floated the idea of a Highway 401 tunnel in September and made it part of his successful re-election campaign back in February. Earlier this month, Ford also asked Prime Minister Mark Carney to prioritize ‘nation-building’ projects including the tunnel idea.

The feasibility study will include other options to increase the capacity of Highway 401 and review best practices from similar projects, including a four-lane tunnel in downtown Ottawa that was also the subject of feasibility study that pegged its cost at $2 billion. That project has never moved forward.

“The reason we’re having a feasibility study is it’s going to determine the length. If they’re telling me, 30 kilometres is X, 40 kilometres is Y, and 70 kilometres or 60 kilometres is another cost, let’s take a look at it,” Ford said of the Highway 401 tunnel back in September. “But we’re going to get the job done, mark my words.”

The formal Requests for Proposals asks for the feasibility study to be completed by February 28,2027 and to examine a corridor that spans from east of Highway 410 in Mississauga to east of Scarborough.

But experts say that while technically possible, the tunnel could cost billions of dollars and take decades to build.

Opposition leader Marit Stiles has been extremely vocal dismissing the idea often referring to it as “imaginary,” and a “silly thought from a government that’s run out of ideas.”

“His big priority is to get the feasibility study done on this silly tunnel under the 401, this imaginary tunnel,” she said last month.

Meanwhile, Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie called the plan a fantasy that “could bankrupt the province.”

Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow was asked about the proposal during an interview with CP24 Breakfast on Thursday morning and seemed to suggest it is not a “priority” for the city at this time.

“That is really up to Premier Ford and the federal government. I just know that I want public transit,” she said. “In terms of priority infrastructure, the priority is still public transit, subway stations, the subway cars as well….”

Does congestion pricing work? Here are the numbers

While Ford remains confident on his big promise, some cities have already turned to congestion pricing — and seen significant results.

Earlier this year, New York City began implementing a USD $9 congestion charge during peak hours south of Central Park. The result: a 7.5 per cent drop in traffic in the first week, or about 43,000 fewer vehicles entering the downtown core daily.

Turner says the evidence is overwhelming.

“If you are building more infrastructure with the idea that you’re going to reduce traffic congestion, then there is an enormous amount of evidence that says that you’re going to fail.”

“This infrastructure is so expensive, and it’s so disruptive to build more, and people will fill it up if it’s free.”

Toronto, he says, already has the technical expertise to make pricing work.

Why pricing the 401 is a hard sell

Toronto has flirted with the idea before. In 2017, former Mayor John Tory proposed tolls for the Gardiner Expressway and Don Valley Parkway. But then-premier Kathleen Wynne shot it down, suggesting conditions were not right.

Ontario, however, introduced legislation in 2024 that prohibits the introduction of any new tolls on provincial highways.

Toronto is technically able to implement tolls on city-operated roads under the City of Toronto Act but the provincial government would be able to override it as it did in 2017.

“I think that the politicians want to build things, and congestion pricing is a hard sell, and so it’s been really hard to implement,” Turner said.

Today, the Ford government remains firmly opposed to tolls. In an email earlier this year, Transportation Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria’s office said the government “will never add a tax or toll to any road in Ontario,” citing their commitment to building infrastructure instead.

Matthias Sweet, a congestion expert at Toronto Metropolitan University, said the refusal to consider tolls comes at a cost.

“Unless you take a policy like that, then you’re basically saying traffic congestion is not as bad as the burden of potential solutions,” he said.

Weighing the burden of Toronto traffic

The Toronto Region Board of Trade estimates congestion costs the GTA $11 billion annually in lost productivity. A broader analysis by the Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis puts the cost to the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area at $47 billion when social and economic losses are included.

But Turner cautions against thinking of megaprojects like the 401 tunnel as a fix.

“These things take forever, and they’re really disruptive while they’re being done,” he said, pointing to Boston’s infamous “Big Dig” project — a tunnel and highway reconstruction that took over 15 years to finish, cost of over $14.8 billion, and was plagued by costs, delays, leaks, and hundreds of millions in lawsuits.

“If you’re interested in managing the use level on these things, the only way that we know how to do that is pricing,” Turner said, adding that “nobody wants to hear that.”

With files from CP24’s Joshua Freeman and The Canadian Press...