'Recoil effect': New Nanos polling shows Liberals may be out of majority territory
Anticipation that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will trigger an election on Sunday has resulted in a “recoil effect” in the Liberals' ballot numbers, possibly moving them out of majority territory, according a survey conducted by Nanos Research.
The survey completed on Thursday night suggests that as the summer-long speculation of an election call shifted towards it looking more certain that Canadians are on the verge of being sent to the polls, voters have been swinging away from the Liberals.
“The latest Nanos tracking that was just completed on Thursday night, suggests that there has been a significant recoil effect against the Liberals. This hot speculation about an election has shifted voters from the Liberal column to the Conservative column, probably because they are upset about the fact that there is an election,” said Nanos Research's Nik Nanos in an interview with CTV News on Friday.
On Thursday sources confirmed to CTV News that Trudeau is expected to launch a federal election campaign on Aug. 15, with the vote set to be held as early as Sept. 20, with those who confirmed the planning indicating that it is still possible that the prime minister could adjust his plans.
When the news broke, Nanos said his daily tracking had the Liberals with “a double digit advantage.”
Now, while the Liberals are still leading in the polls, with 33.4 per cent ballot support, should the election call come this weekend, Nanos said that Trudeau will need a strong answer on day one of the campaign as to why an election is needed now.
“Was there something that you were not able to do?... There's no crisis to merit the triggering of an election, except for the fact that the Liberals want an election. And I think Canadians will probably see through that,” Nanos said.
The survey indicates that Liberal ballot support has dropped by 5.9 per cent from where it was four weeks ago.
The Conservatives appear to have made up some ground in that time, with 28.4 per cent ballot support, up 4.8 per cent from where they were four weeks ago.
“We're in a horse race now. It's no longer about whether the Liberals will win, and if they'll win a majority government. Now it's who will win this election?” Nanos said.
The support for the other four major parties has not shifted as considerably in the last month. The NDP have 20.7 per cent ballot support, the Greens have 7.9 per cent ballot support, the Bloc Quebecois has 6.3 per cent ballot support, and the People’s Party has 1.9 per cent of ballot support.
Nanos said that if this election becomes about Trudeau’s decision to call an early election in order to win a majority—which has widely been suggested a key motivating factor for the Liberals to trigger an election now—“it’ll be bad news for the Liberals.”
Polls conducted over the summer from various public opinion outlets signalled that the Liberals could be within reach of a majority government if a vote was held soon. Though, folks have expressed little enthusiasm to go to the polls, with the COVID-19 case counts once again on an upward trajectory.
Nanos said that had Trudeau called the election a bit earlier, they could have entered the campaign in a more secure electoral standing.
NANOS’ METHODOLOGY
Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land-and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,004 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, ending Aug. 13, 2021.
The data is based on a four week rolling average where each week the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 is added.
A random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
IN DEPTH
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
'Democracy requires constant vigilance' Trudeau testifies at inquiry into foreign election interference in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified Wednesday before the national public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's electoral processes, following a day of testimony from top cabinet ministers about allegations of meddling in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Recap all the prime minister had to say.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Video shows suspect setting Toronto-area barbershop on fire
Video of a suspect lighting a Richmond Hill barbershop on fire earlier this week has been released by police.
The kids from 'Mrs. Doubtfire' are all SUPER grown up now, and we're not OK
The adorable trio of child actors from the 1993 classic comedy 'Mrs. Doubtfire,' which starred the late and great Robin Williams, are all grown up and looking back on their seminal time together.
Canadian doctor concerned new weight-loss drug Wegovy may be used inappropriately
As Wegovy becomes available to Canadians starting Monday, a medical expert is cautioning patients wanting to use the drug to lose weight that no medication is a ''magic bullet,' and the new medication is meant particularly for people who meet certain criteria related to obesity and weight.
Police officer hit by driver of fleeing vehicle in Toronto
York Regional Police say they are continuing to search for a suspect in an auto theft investigation who was captured on video running over a police officer in Toronto last month.
TD worst-case scenario more likely after drug money laundering allegations: analyst
TD Bank Group could be hit with more severe penalties than previously expected, says a banking analyst after a report that the investigation it faces in the U.S. is tied to laundering illicit fentanyl profits.
Premier Legault reiterates that McGill pro-Palestinian camp must be dismantled
Quebec Premier François Legault reiterated that the pro-Palestinian encampment at McGill University must be dismantled while police remain 'on the lookout for new developments.'
A Chinese driver is praised for helping reduce casualties in a highway collapse that killed 48
A Chinese truck driver was praised in local media Saturday for parking his vehicle across a highway and preventing more cars from tumbling down a slope after a section of the road in the country's mountainous south collapsed and killed at least 48 people.
'I have the will to live': N.B. woman needs double lung transplant
A New Brunswick woman suffering from sarcoidosis, a disease that limits your lung capacity, is in need of a double lung transplant.
Hulk Hogan, hurricanes and a blockbuster recording: A week in review of the Trump hush money trial
Crucial witnesses took the stand in the second week of testimony in Donald Trump's hush money trial, including a California lawyer who negotiated deals at the center of the case and a longtime adviser to the former president.
Local Spotlight
Twin Alberta Ballet dancers retire after 15 years with company
Alberta Ballet's double-bill production of 'Der Wolf' and 'The Rite of Spring' marks not only its final show of the season, but the last production for twin sisters Alexandra and Jennifer Gibson.
B.C. mayor stripped of budget, barred from committees over Indigenous residential schools book
A British Columbia mayor has been censured by city council – stripping him of his travel and lobbying budgets and removing him from city committees – for allegedly distributing a book that questions the history of Indigenous residential schools in Canada.
Three Quebec men from same family father hundreds of children
Three men in Quebec from the same family have fathered more than 600 children.
Here's how one of Sask.'s largest power plants was knocked out for 73 days, and what it took to fix it
A group of SaskPower workers recently received special recognition at the legislature – for their efforts in repairing one of Saskatchewan's largest power plants after it was knocked offline for months following a serious flood last summer.
Quebec police officer anonymously donates kidney, changes schoolteacher's life
A police officer on Montreal's South Shore anonymously donated a kidney that wound up drastically changing the life of a schoolteacher living on dialysis.
Canada's oldest hat store still going strong after 90 years
Since 1932, Montreal's Henri Henri has been filled to the brim with every possible kind of hat, from newsboy caps to feathered fedoras.
Road closed in Oak Bay, B.C., so elephant seal can cross
Police in Oak Bay, B.C., had to close a stretch of road Sunday to help an elephant seal named Emerson get safely back into the water.
B.C. breweries take home awards at World Beer Cup
Out of more than 9,000 entries from over 2,000 breweries in 50 countries, a handful of B.C. brews landed on the podium at the World Beer Cup this week.
Kitchener family says their 10-year-old needs life-saving drug that cost $600,000
Raneem, 10, lives with a neurological condition and liver disease and needs Cholbam, a medication, for a longer and healthier life.