Liberals to face pressure to move quickly on fiscal plan as fourth wave hits economy
The Trudeau Liberals may soon start feeling the pressure to move quickly on spending and tax plans, buoyed by a more optimistic outlook for federal finances and an electorate the parties have said is eager to see more policy-making than politicking.
The Liberals are expected to release an update on the government's finances this fall that would give a renewed outlook for the deficit and an economy still affected by COVID-19.
The government may want to release the outlook in November and use it to introduce some spending and tax measures, said former parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page, who now heads the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa.
He said the need to move quickly may be a message from an electorate that returned the parties to almost their exact same standings prior to a campaign that ground policy-making to a halt.
The Liberals are unlikely to start reining in spending with the pandemic ongoing, he said, but should quickly outline the financial rules to be used to keep federal finances sustainable.
"There are some big issues out there -- could be First Nations, could be housing, or could be dealing with health issues post-pandemic -- where the bills are just enormous," Page said. "You can't do everything, so you would force decisions on certain things."
The current parliamentary budget officer in mid-August projected the deficit this fiscal year to be $138.2 billion, down from the $154.7 billion the government unveiled in the spring budget.
Deficits are expected to fall thereafter as pandemic spending winds down and tax revenues grow as the economy recovers, with the caveat that projections were subject to the whims of COVID-19.
"Layering on Liberal platform commitments would not substantially change this picture, but spending pressures in a coalition-context and structural pressures over the medium term warrant monitoring," Rebekah Young, Scotiabank director of fiscal and provincial economics, wrote in a postelection analysis.
The Liberals will have to gain enough opposition support to get their agenda through Parliament.
The party's platform outlined about $78 billion in new spending over five years, and hoped to ease the burden on the federal treasury by raking in $25 billion in new tax measures.
The Liberals are likely to move quickly on some of those tax measures similar to 2015 when the newly elected raised taxes on top income earners, said Elliot Hughes of Summa Strategies.
He said details of big spending priorities, such as housing and climate change, may wait until a budget given the short lead-time to pull together an economic update that governments sometimes use as mini-budgets.
"The sequencing of each of those very, very large spends will be interesting," said Hughes, a one-time adviser to former finance minister Bill Morneau. "And matching that on the other side of the ledger is how do they, and when do they, begin trying to raise some revenues as well?"
Toby Sanger, executive director of Canadians for Tax Fairness, said the Liberals should find willing political partners for some new tax measures because of overlapping promises made across all party platforms.
He cited overlapping promises to tax multinational e-commerce companies, reel in revenue from excess profits from large corporations and banks, extreme wealth taxes, as well as tax measures to reduce real estate speculation.
"They may not be exactly the same proposals, and some may be stronger than others, but they really do point to some common interest in these areas," Sanger said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 22, 2021.
IN DEPTH
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
'Democracy requires constant vigilance' Trudeau testifies at inquiry into foreign election interference in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified Wednesday before the national public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's electoral processes, following a day of testimony from top cabinet ministers about allegations of meddling in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Recap all the prime minister had to say.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Air quality alerts issued as wildfire smoke spreads east from Western Canada
Wildfires have led Environment Canada to issue air quality advisories for parts of B.C., Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and the Northwest Territories, as forecasters warn the smoke could drift farther east.
Steal a car, lose your driver's licence under new Ontario proposal
Repeat car thieves may face lengthy licence bans under proposed changes to Ontario’s Highway Traffic Act.
Ellen DeGeneres addresses the 'hurtful' end of her talk show in new stand-up set
Ellen DeGeneres is reflecting on how her talk show came to an end in her newest Netflix special, 'Ellen's Last Stand ... Up Tour.'
When you have a moment's notice to evacuate, what do you take?
Knowing what to have at home, or take with you for an evacuation, can be useful and even life-saving.
LIVE UPDATES Michael Cohen will face a bruising cross-examination by Trump's lawyers at the hush money trial
Donald Trump’s fixer-turned-foe returns to the witness stand Tuesday for a bruising round of questioning from the former president’s lawyers.
B.C. brings in law on name changes on day that child killer's new identity revealed
The BC NDP have tabled legislation aimed at stopping people who have committed certain heinous acts from changing their names.
Risks of handcuffing someone facedown long known; people die when police training fails to keep up
For decades, police across the United States have been warned that the common tactic of handcuffing someone facedown could turn deadly if officers pin them on the ground with too much pressure or for too long.
A healthy lifestyle can mitigate genetic risk for early death by 62%, study suggests
Even if your genetics put you at greater risk for early death, a healthy lifestyle could help you significantly combat it, according to a new study.
Sunchips, Munchies recalled by Frito Lay Canada for possible salmonella contamination
Frito Lay Canada is recalling two of its most popular snacks due to a possible risk of salmonella contamination.
Local Spotlight
Adopted daughter in the Netherlands reunited with sister in Montreal and mother in Colombia, 40 years later
Two daughters and a mother were reunited online 40 years later thanks to a DNA kit and a Zoom connection despite living on three separate continents and speaking different languages.
'Reimagining Mother's Day': Toronto woman creates Motherless Day event after losing mom
Mother's Day can be a difficult occasion for those who have lost or are estranged from their mom.
Chris Hadfield inspires youth musical in Sudbury
YES Theatre Young Company opened its acclaimed kids’ show, One Small Step, at Sudbury Theatre Centre on Saturday.
Ottawa pizzeria places among top 20 deep-dish pizzas in the world at international competition
An Ottawa pizzeria is being recognized as one of the top 20 deep-dish pizzas in the world.
From outer space? Sask. farmers baffled after discovering strange wreckage in field
A family of fifth generation farmers from Ituna, Sask. are trying to find answers after discovering several strange objects lying on their land.
Wilfrid Laurier football player drafted despite only playing 27 games in his entire life
A Listowel, Ont. man, drafted by the Hamilton Tigercats last week, is also getting looks from the NFL, despite only playing 27 games of football in his life.
Federal government bans watercraft from Manitoba lake popular with tourists
The threat of zebra mussels has prompted the federal government to temporarily ban watercraft from a Manitoba lake popular with tourists.
Toronto-area dessert shop featured by Keith Lee forced to move after zoning complaint
A small Ajax dessert shop that recently received a glowing review from celebrity food critic Keith Lee is being forced to move after a zoning complaint was made following the social media influencer’s visit last month.
'Oh Crap!' New exhibit at Canada Science and Technology Museum explores human waste
The Canada Science and Technology Museum is inviting visitors to explore their poop. A new exhibition opens at the Ottawa museum on Friday called, 'Oh Crap! Rethinking human waste.'