Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
The political math never added up to an election this spring.
When one party is salivating for it, one is leery and the two parties in majority control of the House are scared to death of the voters’ wrath, there was zero chance of toppling Justin Trudeau’s minority government.
And so it came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas.
But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
As Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre made clear Thursday, the real goal was to frame his party standing defiantly alone against the everyone-else tax hikers.
The NDP report to their Liberal “master,” he snapped, while Bloc Quebecois MPs merely parrot the government line as Quebec-centric Liberals.
For "true change, common sense change,” he thundered, voters have only a Conservative choice.
Well, smart stunt Pierre.
In one move, he has lumped the NDP, BQ and Liberals into an unpopular trio of tax-loving, inflation-boosting, unrepresentative, leader-whipped MPs who fail to feel the pain of the average voter.
And you can bet the Conservative push for an early election will continue and amplify as the carbon tax becomes increasingly toxic beyond the parliamentary precinct.
With experts predicting a gasoline price surge this summer even without the tax increase kicking in on April 1, carbon pricing will get a disproportionate share of public blame at the pump.
As premiers ramp up their resistance, provincial legislatures beyond Nova Scotia are likely to vote, probably unanimously, to demand the increase be scrubbed.
Even the NDP leadership race in Alberta has two candidates campaigning hard against the carbon tax while Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie has vowed never to enact one if elected premier.
And the kicker was a report featuring new calculations from the Canadian Climate Institute think tank showing the consumer carbon tax could be replaced because it has a relatively small impact on emission reductions compared to industrial carbon pricing.
Amid all this negative noise, it’s somewhat surprising Justin Trudeau has made an unpopular and perhaps ineffective tax his hill to continue dying on. And pity the hapless NDP that has no choice but to cling to his leaky lifeboat in the raging deep Tory blue sea, which threatens to swallow them both up at the next ballot box.
It’s worth noting that the polls are so dauntingly bad that the Conservatives might want to brace for the possibility this partnership of desperation will push an election into the fifth year of this mandate, the better to delay a date with the executioner until October 2025.
That doesn’t mean the Conservatives will stop pounding the election drums, of course. You can already hear Poilievre drafting fundraiser slogans in the aftermath of this vote. He’ll undoubtedly declare there’s a three-party Carbon Tax Coalition blocking voters from a well-deserved referendum on axing a tax that’s bringing ruin and despair to millions of struggling, hungry, homeless Canadians.
It's all hyperbole, but far from a stupid play.
In the two weeks before the increase kicks in with Parliament on (another) break, Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds infected by already-high anti-carbon fever.
Poilievre's version of the Harper plan
And he’ll use tax hike opposition to promote his version of the five-point plan Stephen Harper used in the party’s victorious 2006 campaign.
Harper promised a GST cut, open government, reduced health-care wait-times, a child-care benefit and a crime crackdown. Poilievre is echoing with a tax cut, a home-building frenzy, a fix for the fiscal mess and a crime crackdown.
It will likely be a wildly successful campaign, minus an election to actually justify calling it a campaign.
Trudeau, by contrast over the break weeks, will probably have to isolate himself to attending small fundraisers lest he be confronted by large event-cancelling protests. Increasingly, his itineraries seem to be limited to ‘no public events’ notifications.
Trudeau's curious twist
And in refuting calls for a pause in carbon tax hikes, Trudeau’s taken a curious twist in the narrative by putting far less emphasis on it as an environmental initiative to selling it more as a wealth redistribution scheme where lower-income people get back more than they were taxed. To the average person that sounds more like the government playing a shell game with their money than comprehensive climate change action.
For as long as the NDP and Liberals share a cell on the voters’ death row, there will be no election on a carbon tax or anything else.
Safe from his government facing a non-confidence demise for the foreseeable future, Justin Trudeau can go back to being confident he’s going against public opinion and towards eventual defeat.
That’s the bottom line.
IN DEPTH
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
'Democracy requires constant vigilance' Trudeau testifies at inquiry into foreign election interference in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified Wednesday before the national public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's electoral processes, following a day of testimony from top cabinet ministers about allegations of meddling in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Recap all the prime minister had to say.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
'State or state-sponsored actor' believed to be behind B.C. government hacks
The head of British Columbia’s civil service has revealed that a “state or state-sponsored actor” is behind multiple cyber-security incidents against provincial government networks.
Here's how much more Canadian landlords are asking for now, according to a just-released report
A new report says the average asking rent for a home in Canada in April was up 9.3 per cent compared with a year ago, while a slight month-over-month increase was also recorded for the first time since January.
Rare severe solar storm Friday could bring spectacular aurora light show across Canada
A rare and severe solar storm is expected to bring spectacular displays of the northern lights, also known as aurora borealis, across much of Canada and parts of the United States on Friday night.
Swarm of 20,000 bees gather around woman’s car west of Toronto
A swarm of roughly 20,000 bees gathered around a woman’s car in the parking lot of Burlington Centre.
What is basic income, and how would it impact me?
Parliamentarians are considering a pair of bills aiming to lift people out of poverty through a basic income program, but some fear these types of systems could result in more taxes for Canadians who are already financially struggling.
Canada abstains from Palestinian UN membership vote but supports two-state solution
Canada was one of 25 countries that abstained from a United Nations vote on Palestinian membership that passed with overwhelming support on Friday.
'I may have some nightmares:' Man survives being bitten by 2 sharks in Bahamas
A man who was bitten by two sharks in the Bahamas said Thursday he's 'thankful that I'm here' while sharing his story of survival.
Out-of-control wildfire burning near Fort McMurray
As of 9 a.m. on Friday, the wildfire burning 28 kilometres southwest of the northeastern Alberta city was 25 hectares in size.
Mexico's president accuses press and volunteer searchers for missing people of 'necrophilia'
The administration of Mexico's president has accused the press and volunteer searchers who look for the bodies of missing people of 'necrophilia,' comments that drew criticism this week.
Local Spotlight
From outer space? Sask. farmers baffled after discovering strange wreckage in field
A family of fifth generation farmers from Ituna, Sask. are trying to find answers after discovering several strange objects lying on their land.
Wilfrid Laurier football player drafted despite only playing 27 games in his entire life
A Listowel, Ont. man, drafted by the Hamilton Tigercats last week, is also getting looks from the NFL, despite only playing 27 games of football in his life.
Toronto-area dessert shop featured by Keith Lee forced to move after zoning complaint
A small Ajax dessert shop that recently received a glowing review from celebrity food critic Keith Lee is being forced to move after a zoning complaint was made following the social media influencer’s visit last month.
'Oh Crap!' New exhibit at Canada Science and Technology Museum explores human waste
The Canada Science and Technology Museum is inviting visitors to explore their poop. A new exhibition opens at the Ottawa museum on Friday called, 'Oh Crap! Rethinking human waste.'
Regina police hope new biometric monitoring system will save lives in detention facility
The Regina Police Service says it is the first in Saskatchewan and possibly Canada to implement new technology in its detention facility that will offer real-time monitoring of detainees’ vital health metrics.
Vancouver and Edmonton's mayors bet on who will win Round 2 of the playoffs. Here's what's at stake
The stakes have been set for a bet between Vancouver and Edmonton's mayors on who will win Round 2 of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
'No other life taken': Mother leads ATV helmet drive to honour daughter's legacy
A grieving mother is hosting a helmet drive in the hopes of protecting children on Manitoba First Nations from a similar tragedy that killed her daughter.
Northern Ont. woman makes 'eggstraordinary' find
A chicken farmer near Mattawa made an 'eggstraordinary' find Friday morning when she discovered one of her hens laid an egg close to three times the size of an average large chicken egg.
P.E.I. lighthouse, N.B. river spotlighted in Canada Post series
A P.E.I. lighthouse and a New Brunswick river are being honoured in a Canada Post series.