Don Martin: An Alberta storm is brewing as Danielle Smith is set to become premier
The next premier of Alberta could well make Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre look like a right-wing lightweight.
Meet Danielle Smith, the disgraced former Wild Rose party leader now poised to become Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s fiercest provincial antagonist as leader of the United Conservative Party.
After a campaign born out of vaccine mandate opposition amid festering Alberta alienation on multiple fronts, Smith’s considered a shoo-in for the UPC leadership on Thursday, which comes with the Alberta premier title.
It’s another miracle on the Prairies of sorts, given how Smith’s tolerance for extreme views from a pair of her MLAs cost her a 2012 election she could’ve won. Matters worsened when she led a disastrous Wildrose defection to the Progressive Conservatives before suffering the indignity of being denied a PC nomination to seek re-election.
RESURRECTED AS REBEL LEADER
Given up for politically dead just seven short years ago, she’s being resurrected as rebel leader of the provincial resistance, a premier vowing to build jurisdictional firewalls around her province against any federal institutions, decisions, laws or insulting policies that offend Alberta-First sensibilities.
Couple her probable victory with Poilievre’s current honeymoon and Quebec Premier Francois Legault’s triumphant re-election Monday and Trudeau’s got to be questioning why he’d want to be stuck in the middle with all these clowns to the left and jokers to the right. Sorry, the Stealers Wheel classic is on a playback loop in my head.
Now before Trudeau gets all wobbly-kneed at the thought of Smith roaring to the attack against his government, the new premier will have a daunting challenge to win over her fellow Albertans first.
After all, her probable victory will come from within a pool of 123,000 UCP memberships, this in a provincial population of 4.3 million. In other words, she likely has deep support in a very shallow base of true-blue believers.
And those believers seem out of synch with severely normal Albertans, according to the polls.
They consistently show Smith’s abrasive positions are more of a general voter concern than real or imagined snubs from Ottawa. Voter concerns are orbiting around inflation, health care, affordable housing and grocery bills, not Smith’s priority of delivering an Ottawa smackdown by introducing the controversial Alberta Sovereignty Act on her first day as leader in the legislature.
And lest we forget, the next election is only eight months away. That’s precious little time for a fledgling premier to turn her low personal and party fortunes around, particularly when the UCP is heading for a wipeout in Edmonton and will likely struggle with difficulty to hold its seats in Calgary.
Common sense suggests Smith should replicate the soft pivot Poilievre is doing now which, in the federal Conservative leader’s case, simply means no longer mentioning his most controversial positions.
HARD-RIGHT BELIEFS CEMENTED INTO HER DNA
But having covered or worked with Smith since her days as a combative public school trustee and Calgary Herald editorial writer, I believe hard-right beliefs are cemented into her DNA with pile drivers and not easily dislodged just because political opportunity knocks.
So backing away from the constitutionally ridiculous Alberta Sovereignty Act, a nation within a nation proposal enabling the legislature to refuse enforcement of federal laws or policies it deems a provincial infringement, is almost unimaginable at this stage.
Then there are those silly notions to create an Alberta Pension Plan, a bureaucratic headache for those moving in or out of the province, and a provincial police force to replace the RCMP.
“Basically her position is that we want whatever Quebec has, whether it makes sense or not,” a former cabinet minister confided.
But don’t entirely underestimate Smith’s political revival. While brows will furrow to recall a signature Smith accomplishment so far, her passion for the provincial rights cause backed by her articulate charisma will undoubtedly deliver a political bump in the polls.
Along with Pierre Poilievre, Danielle Smith will unleash a formidable one-two punch against Trudeau as she ignites the wrath of Albertans who loath their preachy polarizing prime minister and, rightly or wrongly, blame his government for their province’s swinging fortunes.
It won’t be much fun for Justin Trudeau being stuck in the middle of angry finger-jabbing from all sides. Especially if the clowns and jokers have the last laugh.
That’s the bottom line…
IN DEPTH
Former prime minister Brian Mulroney dies at 84
Former Canadian prime minister and Conservative stalwart Brian Mulroney has died at age 84. Over his impressive career, the passionate and ambitious politician, businessman, husband, father, and grandfather left an unmistakable mark on the country.
Who is supporting, opposing new online harms bill?
Now that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's sweeping online harms legislation is before Parliament, allowing key stakeholders, major platforms, and Canadians with direct personal experience with abuse to dig in and see what's being proposed, reaction is streaming in. CTVNews.ca has rounded up reaction, and here's how Bill C-63 is going over.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
The first public hearings on foreign interference in Canada have begun. What you need to know
The public hearings portion of the federal inquiry into foreign interference in Canadian elections and democratic institutions got underway this week. Heading into this process, here's what you need to know.
TREND LINE What Nanos' tracking tells us about Canadians' mood, party preference heading into 2024
Heading into a new year, Canadians aren't feeling overly optimistic about the direction the country is heading, with the number of voters indicating negative views about the federal government's performance at the highest in a decade, national tracking from Nanos Research shows.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
opinion Don Martin: Pierre Poilievre's road to apparent victory will soon start to get rougher
Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives appear to be on cruise control to a rendezvous with the leader's prime ministerial ambition, but in his latest column for CTVNews.ca, Don Martin questions whether the Conservative leader may be peaking too soon.
opinion Don Martin: The Trudeau lessons from Brian Mulroney's legacy start with walking away
Justin Trudeau should pay very close attention to the legacy treatment afforded former prime minister Brian Mulroney, who died on Thursday at age 84, writes columnist Don Martin.
opinion Don Martin: ArriveCan debacle may be even worse than we know from auditor's report
It's been 22 years since a former auditor general blasted the Chretien government after it 'broke just about every rule in the book' in handing out private sector contracts in the sponsorship scandal. In his column for CTVNews.ca, Don Martin says the book has been broken anew with everything that went on behind the scenes of the 'dreaded' ArriveCan app.
opinion Don Martin: Despite his horrible year, Trudeau's determined to roll the dice again
In his column for CTVNews.ca, political commentator Don Martin says you can't help but admire Justin Trudeau's defiance and audacity of hope despite his 'horrible' 2023, as it appears Trudeau is insisting on leading the Liberals into the next federal election.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
A newspaper says video of Prince William and Kate should halt royal rumour mill. That's a tall order
Prince William and his wife Catherine have been filmed at a farm shop near their Windsor home, The Sun newspaper reported -- the first footage of Kate since she had abdominal surgery for an unspecified condition two months ago.
'You ask for your money, they disappear': Ontario man loses $17K to AI crypto scam
A Toronto man is spreading the word of a cryptocurrency scam that lures victims using AI-generated news sites after he lost $17,000 in investments.
Hertz CEO out following electric car 'horror show'
The company, which announced in January it was selling 20,000 of the electric vehicles in its fleet, or about a third of the EVs it owned, is now replacing the CEO who helped build up that fleet, giving it the company’s fifth boss in just four years.
High thoughts: The habits of Canadian cannabis users are revealed in a new StatCan report
Statistics Canada has conducted a series of surveys to measure the impacts of legalized cannabis since the Cannabis Act took effect in 2018. The latest one, the 2023 National Cannabis Survey, sheds light on users' preferences and habits last year.
Demand soars for solar eclipse glasses in Canada. Are they worth buying?
The demand for total solar eclipse glasses used to safely view the rare celestial event has been ramping up as sellers, along with astronomy and eye-care experts in Canada, warn that viewing the eclipse with the naked eye is dangerous.
Trump says Jews who vote for Democrats 'hate Israel' and their religion
Former U.S. president Donald Trump on Monday charged that Jews who vote for Democrats 'hate Israel' and hate 'their religion,' igniting a firestorm of criticism from the White House and Jewish leaders.
Toronto family doctor who called patient's body 'perfect' suspended for 3 months: tribunal
A family doctor in Toronto has been suspended for three months after a disciplinary tribunal found that he failed to follow proper protocols while examining a patient's breasts and made inappropriate comments about her body.
Freddie Mercury's home is on the market for first time since 1980 minus his 'exquisite clutter'
Freddie Mercury's sanctuary in London, where he lived the last decade of his life, is on sale for the first time in nearly half a century -- minus his "exquisite clutter."
'The lost season': Winter comes to a close as Canada's warmest on record
The warmest winter on record could have far-reaching effects on everything from wildfire season to erosion, climatologists say, while offering a preview of what the season could resemble in the not-so-distant future unless steps are taken to cut greenhouse gas emissions.