Conservatives extend summer lead over Liberals, NDP sees bump in Nanos ballot tracking
With the fall sitting of Parliament now underway, the latest Nanos ballot tracking shows the federal Conservatives continue to hold onto the lead they’ve had all summer while the Liberals remain stalled, and the NDP has managed to gain a bit of steam in third place.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's personal leadership number, meanwhile, is on a sharp upward trajectory while Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's has trended negatively since the beginning of September.
On the latest episode of CTV Trend Line, Nik Nanos, chief data scientist and founder of Nanos Research, said the Conservatives clearly have "the upper hand."
"The Conservatives are up six points. (Poilievre is) six points up on the Preferred Prime Minister tracking. The Liberals are back on their heels," said Nanos. While the Conservative advantage on the ballot question has lessened slightly since Aug. 4 when they were nine points ahead of the Liberals, "still, six points is enough to win an election."
NDP TRENDING UP
The NDP, meanwhile, is benefiting from the Liberal slump. "When the Liberal numbers go down, usually the NDP numbers go up. Maybe if you're Justin Trudeau and the Liberals, you've got to be hoping those NDP numbers are hidden Liberal numbers that might come out and vote for the red team in order to try to strategically vote and block Pierre Poilievre," said Nanos.
"But you know what? If you're Jagmeet Singh, you have to be thinking about how you can get that number 22 to 25." That, added, Nanos, would put the NDP into Tom Mulcair and Jack Layton territory.
Nanos tracking shows the NDP under Singh has approached or exceeded 25 per cent ballot support a handful of times since he became leader in 2017. The party has largely been hovering around 20 per cent, reaching a low of 13 per cent in October, 2020.
"It could be a massive game changer if the NDP can up their numbers even more," said Nanos.
PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER
On the question of Canadians' preferences for prime minister, Nanos said it's interesting to note the long-term trend, with Poilievre currently at 31 per cent versus Trudeau at 25 per cent.
"A Conservative leader has not been this high since Stephen Harper was prime minister. Right now, the Conservatives are very well poised," said Nanos.
"The other thing is, is when the leader of the opposition is ahead of the sitting prime minister, that's not good news for the sitting prime minister."
WHERE HOUSING, IMMIGRATION MEET
When it comes to Canadians' top issues of concern tracked weekly by Nanos, inflation is at the top at 17 per cent, followed by the environment at 14 per cent.
But concerns over housing and the cost of housing has shot up to 13 per cent, compared to six per cent four weeks earlier.
"Many Canadians are just struggling to pay for the rent or the mortgage in the next 30 days," said Nanos, who also did polling recently for the Globe and Mail on immigration – asking Canadians whether we should be bringing in more new immigrants, the same amount or less.
"When you look at the trend line, when you look at 2020 compared to 2023, … the proportion of Canadians that thought we should be bringing in even more new Canadians was 17 per cent back in 2020. That's down to 8."
Meanwhile, the proportion of Canadians who think we should be bringing in fewer immigrants rose from 40 per cent in 2020 to 53 per cent today.
"It is now a majority, (a) slim majority but still a majority, nonetheless, at 53 per cent. So right now what it seems is, we're seeing the collision intersection … of issues like housing, where people are really worried about the rising cost of housing and just housing affordability, writ large, and things like immigration,"said Nanos.
Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts. The next episode comes out Wednesday, Oct. 4.
IN DEPTH
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
'Democracy requires constant vigilance' Trudeau testifies at inquiry into foreign election interference in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified Wednesday before the national public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's electoral processes, following a day of testimony from top cabinet ministers about allegations of meddling in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Recap all the prime minister had to say.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Several officers shot trying to serve warrant in North Carolina, suspect killed, police say
Several officers on a task force trying to serve a warrant in a suburban Charlotte, North Carolina, neighborhood were shot Monday afternoon and a suspect in the shooting was found dead inside a home, police said.
Toronto police arrest 12 people, lay 102 charges in major credit card fraud scheme
Toronto police say 12 people are facing a combined 102 charges in connection with an investigation into a major credit fraud scheme.
'Shocked and concerned': Calgary principal charged with possession of child pornography
A Calgary elementary school principal has been charged with possession of child pornography, authorities announced Monday.
CRA to audit Sask. for not paying carbon levies on home heating
The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) is going to audit Saskatchewan for not paying carbon levies on home heating, Premier Scott Moe said Monday.
Winner of US$1.3 billion Powerball jackpot is an immigrant from Laos who has cancer
One of the winners of a historic US$1.3 billion Powerball jackpot last month is an immigrant from Laos who has had cancer for eight years and had his latest chemotherapy treatment last week.
B.C. premier says Vancouver speech praising Hamas attack was 'most hateful' he can imagine
B.C. Premier David Eby has joined other politicians denouncing remarks at a demonstration in Vancouver where protesters chanted “long live Oct. 7,” praising that day's attacks by Hamas on Israel.
Norovirus spreading at 'higher frequency' than expected in Canada
Norovirus is spreading at a 'higher frequency' than expected in Canada, specifically, in Ontario and Alberta, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada.
Less alcohol, or none at all, is one path to better health
Moderate drinking was once thought to have benefits for the heart, but better research methods have thrown cold water on that.
Singh still not ready to say if NDP will back budget, holding out for 'clarity' on disability benefit
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he's still not ready to say whether his caucus will support the federal budget, citing a need for further 'clarity' over whether the Liberals intend to address concerns surrounding the Canada Disability Benefit program.
Local Spotlight
Canada's oldest hat store still going strong after 90 years
Since 1932, Montreal's Henri Henri has been filled to the brim with every possible kind of hat, from newsboy caps to feathered fedoras.
Road closed in Oak Bay, B.C., so elephant seal can cross
Police in Oak Bay, B.C., had to close a stretch of road Sunday to help an elephant seal named Emerson get safely back into the water.
B.C. breweries take home awards at World Beer Cup
Out of more than 9,000 entries from over 2,000 breweries in 50 countries, a handful of B.C. brews landed on the podium at the World Beer Cup this week.
Kitchener family says their 10-year-old needs life-saving drug that cost $600,000
Raneem, 10, lives with a neurological condition and liver disease and needs Cholbam, a medication, for a longer and healthier life.
Haida Elder suing Catholic Church and priest, hopes for 'healing and reconciliation'
The lawyer for a residential school survivor leading a proposed class-action defamation lawsuit against the Catholic Church over residential schools says the court action is a last resort.
'It was instant karma': Viral video captures failed theft attempt in Nanaimo, B.C.
Mounties in Nanaimo, B.C., say two late-night revellers are lucky their allegedly drunken antics weren't reported to police after security cameras captured the men trying to steal a heavy sign from a downtown business.
Fergus, Ont. man feels nickel-and-dimed for $0.05 property tax bill
A property tax bill is perplexing a small townhouse community in Fergus, Ont.
Twins from Toronto were Canada's top two female finishers at this year's Boston Marathon
When identical twin sisters Kim and Michelle Krezonoski were invited to compete against some of the world’s most elite female runners at last week’s Boston Marathon, they were in disbelief.
Mystery surrounds giant custom Canucks jerseys worn by Lions Gate Bridge statues
The giant stone statues guarding the Lions Gate Bridge have been dressed in custom Vancouver Canucks jerseys as the NHL playoffs get underway.