G7 will be a success if Trump ‘doesn’t have an eruption,’ experts say

PM Mark Carney's G7 invites to the leaders of Saudi Arabia and India is dividing members of the Liberal caucus. Judy Trinh on the the reasons for concern.

Mark Carney’s ability to balance Canada’s economic agenda while promoting its democratic values will be tested at the upcoming G7 summit after he expanded the invitation list to nations implicated in international murders.

The prime minister ignored questions from reporters about why he was inviting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Kananaskis, Alta., as he walked into Question Period on Wednesday

But earlier in the day, MP Sukh Dhaliwal, who represents the B.C. riding of Surrey-Newton, says he met with Carney and told him that hundreds of people had voiced concerns that Modi was attending the G7, due to being linked to an “assassination of a Canadian on Canadian soil.”

“We’re a country of human rights. A country of law and justice,” Dhaliwal said in an interview on CTV’s Power Play, adding that he reminded Carney that during the public inquiry into foreign interference, Justice Marie-Josee Hogue found that China and India were the two biggest nations interfering in Canada’s democratic processes.

The relationship between Canada and India has been strained since the RCMP revealed that it had credible information that government agents of India were involved in the 2023 murder of a Sikh-Canadian in Surrey, B.C. The victim, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, supported the Khalistan movement, which promotes a Sikh separatist state.

Dhaliwal said Carney “clearly” assured him that he will “be strong and raise these concerns” with Modi during their bilateral meetings at the G7.

So far, Canadian police say they’ve received little help from Indian authorities in their investigation, but Ottawa Centre MP Yasir Naqvi says high-level engagement could improve relations.

According to data from the International Monetary Fund, India is the world’s fourth largest economy.

“We want to make sure those investigations are taking place, and they’re independent of the government when it comes to matters of law enforcement,” Naqvi said. “It’s also really important that, at this moment in time, when so much is changing around the world, that we do engage in a large economy like India.”

‘Very big investor’

Carney’s invitation to Saudi Arabia is also raising eyebrows.

In 2018, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) concluded that bin Salman had ordered the assassination of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi a year earlier. Khashoggi, an outspoken critic of the Saudi government, was dismembered after walking into the Saudi embassy in Istanbul, Turkiye, to pick up marriage documents.

Roland Paris, director of the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa, told CTV News that Carney understands that he needs to talk to countries that Canada has a difficult relationship with in order to further his economic goals.

While bin Salman is an “unsavoury actor,” Paris says the crown prince has considerable resources that could be invested in Carney’s nation-building projects.

“One of the issues that Prime Minister Carney wants to really push at this meeting is catalyzing private investment for infrastructure around the world - and the Saudis, especially through their sovereign wealth fund, is a very big investor,” Paris said.

The crown prince also has warm relations with U.S. President Donald Trump. Last month, Saudi Arabia signed a pact to invest US$600 billion in the United States after Trump visited the Gulf state.

Paris notes when Italy hosted the G7 last year, it also invited Saudi Arabia, but the crown prince did not attend. So far, the Saudis have not confirmed if they will accept Carney’s invitation.

Zachary Paikin, a senior fellow with The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy, says that Saudi Arabia is gaining influence as a regional power and mediator.

In March, the Saudis brought Ukrainian and Russian delegations to Jeddah to embark on peace talks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will also be at the G7 and will be seeking a bilateral meeting with Trump. Carney’s invitation to bin Salman could facilitate further peace talks.

Carney’s G7 objectives

Paikin says Canada risks becoming marginalized on the global stage unless it is willing to engage with countries it disagrees with.

“To put it very frankly, the overwhelming majority of the world’s governments and peoples do not share the values and worldview of the liberal, capitalist democratic West,” Paikin told CTV News in a zoom interview from Geneva, Switzerland.

“When Canada isolates itself, it puts itself at the mercy of Donald Trump, and we cannot afford that if we want to preserve our status as a sovereign, proud and independent country.”

Even though the U.S. has launched a trade war with much of the world, Paris expects the prime minister will strive to find areas of “commonality and progress” on his key priorities, such as combating transnational crime, strengthening access to critical minerals and energy security, along with improving joint responses to wildfires.

A clearer framework outlining Canada’s future economic and security relationship with the U.S. could also come into focus in bilateral meetings. Paris says the success of this summit will depend a lot on managing the unpredictability of the American president.

“This will be a successful meeting if Donald Trump doesn’t have an eruption that disrupts the entire gathering,” Paris said. “Anything above and beyond that is gravy.”

The last time Canada hosted a G7 was in 2018, during the first Trump administration. Talks fell apart in Charlevoix, Que., and the U.S. president left without signing the final communique.