Don Martin's prediction on whether Trudeau will stick around for another election

Nik Nanos's biggest 2023 political predictions Pollster Nik Nanos shares his biggest political predictions for 2023, the effects of a recession and how the Liberal-NDP deal will fare.

After decades of mostly wrong personal predictions for the year ahead, it’s time to consult the best brains in Canadian politics for their view of Major Events 2023.

There’s a handful of former senior staffers, a former party leader, a top business voice and a veteran parliamentary observer in this Very Smart People mix, all granted anonymity so they can deliver fearless crystal-ball insights to improve on my usual never-came-to-pass list.

The government’s key budget focus next year will be to compete against the U.S. President Joe Biden’s frenzy of spending aimed at luring investment back to America.

“They’re creating a giant vacuuming sound for Canadian investment and talent.”

There’s a caveat however in that Smith has surrounded herself with decent staff, which could save her from herself.

He also predicted the NDP, weary of not seeing a popularity payoff from propping up the government, will cancel the deal. And Trudeau will announce he’s not seeking re-election in late fall.

She sees recent byelection winner and former Ontario finance minister Charles Sousa getting the nod for a senior cabinet job, although another white male minister from Toronto is seen as problematic.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stays on, but there’s no election next year even though sitting Liberal MPs have been told to declare themselves standing for re-election by March 1.

He sees a spring 2023 election, particularly if the NDP’s popularity rises to seat-gaining levels, because the Conservatives are itching to take on Trudeau before he opts to retire.

But, he notes in an interesting twist, should Smith rise from the grave and win the May election, watch for Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley to quit and be on standby as frontrunner to replace federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh should he decide fatherhood is more fun than leadership.

He sees little change in Trudeau’s top-down arrogant style of leadership because the PMO believes it’s on track to win again under the status quo.

As for his safest prediction, my source says Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland will quit to become secretary general of NATO next fall, the better to cleanse herself of widespread Trudeau loathing before a Liberal leadership bid in the future.

I agree Chrystia Freeland will land the top NATO gig and expect Trudeau will take his walk in the snow toward retirement in early 2024. Which, given by usual batting average, means Trudeau will stick around for another election with Freeland by his side and refrain from any cabinet changes ahead of a favourable Rouleau report.

That’s the bottom line.