Edmonton’s tumultuous summer storms may have some fatigued by the number of watches and warnings issued by officials. But CTV News Edmonton’s Chief Meteorologist Josh Classen says the number of alerts central Alberta has seen this year so far isn’t an overreaction. The province has confirmed 27 tornadoes so far this season – just short of a record 30 in 1980. This summer is also only the second in the past 10 years that Alberta has had more than 20 tornadoes. The province typically averages 13 per year. “That increase in tornadoes is a big part of the reason we’ve had more tornado watches/warnings than in past years. All of the tornado alerts I’ve seen have been warranted,” Classen said. Tornado, storm watch vs. warning When is it time to hit the basement, bathtub or otherwise low-lying portion of ground? When a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch is issued, Classen says that’s your signal to prepare for the potential of a severe weather event to hit your area. But because of how large advisory zones are, many areas within a watch zone may not get severe weather. “However, it’s better to be ready than caught off guard and unprepared,” he said. A warning means severe weather is happening at that moment or is imminent. When a tornado warning is issued, it means to seek shelter, avoid windows and make yourself as small as possible in case of flying debris. Environment and Climate Change Canada has moved to a colour-coded alerting system, similar to meteorological services around the world. Most watches and warnings, Classen said, will be yellow until the impact of severe weather or confidence in the forecast increases. Edmonton saw an orange severe thunderstorm watch earlier this week, for example, because of increased risk of flooding. “The same storm hitting a drier area would have less of a flooding risk and could be colour-coded yellow,” Classen said. Can we predict severe storms? The ultimate target of thunderstorms are harder to predict because of how most storms are localized, Classen said. Snow storms, conversely, are typically broader in reach and cover a larger area, making predictions “easier” in a sense. Severe thunderstorms are also highly reactive to the surrounding environment, meaning they can strengthen or weaken quickly based on the condition of the atmosphere they move into. Edmonton’s Black Friday: July 31, 1987 Friday marked the 39th anniversary of what Edmontonians know as the Black Friday tornado, a massive event that cut a 45-kilometre path of destruction through the east portion of the city and killed 27 people. Nearly four decades later, meteorologists are still unable to stop a tornado – but they’re leagues better at predicting them and preparing people well ahead of time. The Edmonton area didn’t even have weather radar in 1987, Classen explained, as the Carvel radar west of Edmonton only began operating in 1991. “Today, we have a state-of-the-art dual-polarization Doppler radar at that site, and everyone has access to that radar on their cellphones,” he said. As for whether this season may see a similar tornado, Classen says there aren’t many parallels between the conditions leading up to Black Friday 1987 and today. “July 1987 wasn’t as wet as this year, but we did have a lengthy stretch of days with precipitation mid-to-late month. We also had a long hot spell with seven straight days in the upper 20s C or mids 30s C,” he said. Weather alerts can now be pushed directly onto our cellphones in affected areas, and a growing group of storm chasers is constantly out providing real-time information on social media. “If the Black Friday storms formed in 2026 instead of 1987, we’d have a lot more advance notice or warning, and it’s very likely that far fewer people would die or get injured,” Classen said.
