Alberta finance minister says CPP referendum decision will be based on 'high level feeling from many sources'

Alberta Finance Minister Nate Horner says the province’s decision on whether or not to hold a referendum on leaving the Canada Pension Plan will be based on a “high level feeling from many sources” following consultations with Albertans.

Alberta’s UCP has been mulling the idea of leaving the CPP and forming its own pension plan since 2020, with Premier Danielle Smith taking next steps to do so in the last few months.

She said this week the provincial government will not proceed to a referendum until Albertans have a fixed number and a clear idea of how much money they would get if they left the federal plan. Smith also said this week that she's willing to go to court to figure out how much her province would be owed if it left the CPP.

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Meanwhile, the province has tapped former Alberta treasurer Jim Dinning to lead a panel to gather feedback from Albertans on the move to leave the CPP.

Dinning and his team have been carrying out telephone town halls to gauge Albertans’ opinions, and there is a survey on the provincial government’s website for residents to share their thoughts.

Horner told CTV’s Question Period host Vassy Kapelos, in an interview airing Sunday, that at this point the provincial government is “just asking questions.”

“So we're asking a question, ‘Are you interested in this? If you are, what questions do you have? What would be important to you? What would this look like?’ So the only thing we're forging ahead on, I would say, is engagement,” he said.

But when Kapelos pointed out to Horner that the online survey does not ask Albertans whether they want to leave the CPP — only how it should be managed and by whom — and pressed on whether the provincial government has an objective metric to decide whether to hold a referendum, Horner said it does not.

“I don't know if we have a precise number,” Horner said. “But we're sure thinking that we'll have a feeling of the province.”

“There's nothing more emotional than someone's pension, we're well aware,” he added. “So this is truly to get their feedback. And I think we'll feel that. No one would want to push forward into an unsuccessful referendum.”

And when asked to clarify whether Alberta is making its decision — which would have significant ramifications for the other members of the CPP — based on something less than hard facts or evidence, Horner said he thinks it would be “more than a feeling.”

“I think there will be, obviously, polling and submissions,” he said. “And I think there will be lots of objective data.”

“I guess I meant high level feeling from many sources,” he added.

According to the Canada Pension Plan Act, a province wishing to withdraw must negotiate with the federal government and come to an agreement on how to do so.

Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault told Kapelos on CTV’s Question Period last week that while Alberta is legally allowed to withdraw from the CPP, doing so would be a “one-way ticket,” with no chance of return.

Meanwhile, a report by the consulting company LifeWorks — on which the Alberta government is basing its cost-benefit calculations for a possible Alberta Pension Plan — estimates that the western province will be entitled to $334 billion by the time it leaves the CPP in 2027, which is more than half the total amount in the federal fund.

When asked whether there is room for negotiation and if Alberta would still consider leaving with less than $334 billion, Horner said it’s “certainly not (his) place to comment there.”

He said the LifeWorks report is based on the best publicly available data and the Alberta government welcomes the federal government’s own analysis and counter offer.

“We've asked for the number from the (federal government), and we have not heard back from them,” Horner said. “We welcome all the conversations with the other provincial ministers and the (federal government), but I really can't speculate.”

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Federal, provincial and territorial finance ministers are expected to meet soon to address concerns over Alberta's proposal to pull out of the CPP after Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy publicly called on the federal government to set up the meeting.

In an open letter to Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, Bethlenfalvy wrote that Alberta withdrawing from the plan could cause "serious harm" to Canadians.

When asked by Kapelos, also in an interview airing Sunday on CTV’s Question Period, whether his government’s concern is genuine or an attempt to divert focus from its own controversial issues, Bethlenfalvy said it’s “not at all” about channel changing.

“I'm concerned about Ontario workers and hardworking families. The Canada Pension Plan has been a hallmark of stability,” Bethlenfalvy said. “So the primary objective is to make sure we have a conversation and make sure that all voices are heard on this important matter.”

With files from CTV’s Question Period Senior Producer Stephanie Ha