Greater Sudbury’s population to reach 188K by 2051: report

In less than 30 years, Greater Sudbury could have as many as 200,000 people, or as few as 182,700, according to the latest population forecasts. (File)

In less than 30 years, Greater Sudbury could have as many as 200,000 people, or as few as 182,700, according to the latest population forecasts.

A report headed to the city’s finance and administration committee July 10 said that Sudbury is the only urban area in northern Ontario that increased its population between 2001 and 2021.

The city’s current population estimate is 170, 210. It has grown by an average of 454 people per year since 2001, a pace that will accelerate to 610 new residents each year in the next three decades until 2051, according to a report by Hemson Consulting.

“The (City of Greater Sudbury) will have a much more robust growth pattern than previously envisioned,” the report said.

By comparison, Timmins lost 3,720 residents from 2001-2021, Sault Ste. Marie lost 2,250 and North Bay 420.

In Sudbury, the report said natural population growth has all but stopped. Future population gains are largely dependent on immigration.

“Population growth will need to be addressed by increased levels of all types of migration,” the report said.

“The extent to which Greater Sudbury is able to attract immigrants to fill existing jobs that will open up and new ones created by growth will be an important challenge.”

“Migration will play an increasingly important role in growing Greater Sudbury’s economy,” added a city staff report.

“To accommodate these new residents, the city should continue to provide and plan for suitable housing types, opportunities for employment and access to essential services. The reference scenario is used for municipal land use, finance, social and capital planning purposes.”

In terms of where the growth will come, more than half (54 per cent) of new residents are expected to settle in the old City of Sudbury, followed by Valley East (16 per cent), Rayside-Balfour (12 per cent), Nickle Centre (seven per cent) and Walden (six per cent).

Another factor aiding local population growth is a significant increase in people working from home. Remote work can allow people to live in one community while working in another.

In 2016, just four per cent of people in Sudbury said they worked from home. But in 2021, that number rose to 18.2 per cent, inflated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Hemson report said exactly how many jobs remain as remote work will partially determine whether the city will reach the 200,000 population figure.

For example, mining had zero people working from home traditionally, but that number rose to 900 during the pandemic.

But if almost all remote workers return to in-person work, that will lead to the low-end population estimate of 182,700 by 2051.

The development of the Ring of Fire would also boost Sudbury’s population fortunes, the report said.

The Hemson report can be viewed here while the city staff report is here.