Video shows suspect setting Toronto-area barbershop on fire
Video of a suspect lighting a Richmond Hill barbershop on fire earlier this week has been released by police.
Canada is headed towards a fourth wave of COVID-19 infections, but how severe of a resurgence it’ll be depends on how many people are fully vaccinated, warns new national modelling released Friday.
The country is seeing an increase in new COVID-19 cases, and thousands more infections are predicted if contacts aren’t contained, the modelling indicates.
The new picture on Canada’s pandemic trajectory shows the serious threat the highly-contagious Delta variant is posing, and the risk that the unvaccinated may be to the country being thrust into a fourth wave of the disease.
“The updated longer-range forecast shows how the epidemic trajectory may evolve through early September. It suggests that we are at the start of the Delta-driven fourth wave, but that the trajectory will depend on ongoing increases in fully vaccinated coverage, and the timing, pace and extent of reopening,” Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam said.
After weeks of sustained decline in new cases, the Public Health Agency of Canada is warning that if community-wide contact rates increase too quickly with ongoing reopening efforts, the long-term forecast indicates Canada could experience a “stronger resurgence” of the virus.
Ultimately, factoring in the spread of Delta, hospital capacity could be exceeded this fall or winter if more people don’t get vaccinated, the modelling indicates.
The predominance of the Delta variant “underscores the need for high vaccination coverage and continued caution as restrictions are eased,” the modelling states.
The Public Health Agency of Canada's aim is to see as many eligible Canadians vaccinated this summer as possible. As of midday Friday, 80.5 per cent of those eligible have received a first dose, while 65.8 per cent of those eligible are now fully vaccinated.
“If we can get to 90 [per cent vaccinated], I’ll be popping over the champagne for sure,” Tam said.
The new data predicts that in the short-term, the case count will continue to increase, meaning the country could see between 2,700 and 11,800 new cases over the next week or so. As of midday Friday, there have been 1,429,937 reported cases nationwide, and by Aug. 8 that number could grow to between 1,432,555 to 1,441,610 cases.
One sign that Canada’s case counts are on an upward trajectory: the national “Rt” or effective reproduction number, recently started trending above one around mid-July, meaning there are “early signs of epidemic growth” in some regions. This comes after the “Rt” had remained out of a growth pattern since April.
“If the ‘Rt’ remains persistently above one for several weeks, with the predominance of the highly contagious Delta variant, we could expect to see a return to rapid epidemic growth, particularly as measures that slow the spread are eased,” said Tam.
PHAC says it saw a five-fold increase in the proportion of Delta cases in June, reminding that Delta cases have an increased risk for hospitalization, and has reduced vaccine effectiveness against a symptomatic infection. Further, the majority of the Delta cases in Canada are in those who are unvaccinated, or are partially vaccinated.
“People seem to be, in certain areas, tired and forgetting about science, which is unfortunate,” said Dr. Lisa Barrett, an infectious disease expert and assistant professor at Dalhousie University in Halifax, in an interview on CTV News Channel.
“We know at this point that we are going to live with the virus… however we don't have enough data, information, vaccination, ways to treat this virus… we don’t have enough of that knowledge yet to expect to treat this just like another respiratory virus,” she continued.
In an indication that the vaccines are working, the modelling does not anticipate the rate of new deaths to increase along with the uptick in new cases.
The modelling shows that regionally, hospitalization rates remain low, with fewer than one per cent of reported cases and fewer than one per cent of hospitalized cases occurring in people who are fully vaccinated.
The flipside of this statistic though, is that 89.7 per cent of all cases are occurring in eligible, but unvaccinated people, and 84.9 per cent of hospitalized cases are people who are unvaccinated. Another 5.3 per cent of cases are in those who are not yet eligible for vaccines, and 4.6 per cent of infections are in those who are partially vaccinated.
Tam said it’s also mostly those who are unvaccinated who are dying after contracting COVID-19.
The federal health officials are now pushing to see a marked increase in vaccination rates in younger populations, warning that if they don’t increase in the coming months, Canada could face a “serious resurgence” this fall or winter.
Deputy Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Howard Njoo called out the approximately 6.3 million eligible Canadians who have yet to roll up their sleeves and get vaccinated.
“What are you waiting for?” said Njoo. “This is all very preventable if people go forward and get vaccinated, so let's go for it. Let's go.”
Generally speaking, the rate of vaccination decreases in each younger demographic. During the early stages of the rollout, older generations were often prioritized for vaccination ahead of younger ones.
As of last week the percentages in each age group who are fully vaccinated are:
The data also breaks down how each province stacks up on vaccination rates, with Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, and Alberta still having the farthest to go in terms of fully vaccinating its eligible population, while the Yukon and Northwest Territories continue to lead the nation in vaccination rates.
Video of a suspect lighting a Richmond Hill barbershop on fire earlier this week has been released by police.
The adorable trio of child actors from the 1993 classic comedy 'Mrs. Doubtfire,' which starred the late and great Robin Williams, are all grown up and looking back on their seminal time together.
As Wegovy becomes available to Canadians starting Monday, a medical expert is cautioning patients wanting to use the drug to lose weight that no medication is a ''magic bullet,' and the new medication is meant particularly for people who meet certain criteria related to obesity and weight.
York Regional Police say they are continuing to search for a suspect in an auto theft investigation who was captured on video running over a police officer in Toronto last month.
TD Bank Group could be hit with more severe penalties than previously expected, says a banking analyst after a report that the investigation it faces in the U.S. is tied to laundering illicit fentanyl profits.
Quebec Premier François Legault reiterated that the pro-Palestinian encampment at McGill University must be dismantled while police remain 'on the lookout for new developments.'
A Chinese truck driver was praised in local media Saturday for parking his vehicle across a highway and preventing more cars from tumbling down a slope after a section of the road in the country's mountainous south collapsed and killed at least 48 people.
A New Brunswick woman suffering from sarcoidosis, a disease that limits your lung capacity, is in need of a double lung transplant.
Crucial witnesses took the stand in the second week of testimony in Donald Trump's hush money trial, including a California lawyer who negotiated deals at the center of the case and a longtime adviser to the former president.
Alberta Ballet's double-bill production of 'Der Wolf' and 'The Rite of Spring' marks not only its final show of the season, but the last production for twin sisters Alexandra and Jennifer Gibson.
A British Columbia mayor has been censured by city council – stripping him of his travel and lobbying budgets and removing him from city committees – for allegedly distributing a book that questions the history of Indigenous residential schools in Canada.
Three men in Quebec from the same family have fathered more than 600 children.
A group of SaskPower workers recently received special recognition at the legislature – for their efforts in repairing one of Saskatchewan's largest power plants after it was knocked offline for months following a serious flood last summer.
A police officer on Montreal's South Shore anonymously donated a kidney that wound up drastically changing the life of a schoolteacher living on dialysis.
Since 1932, Montreal's Henri Henri has been filled to the brim with every possible kind of hat, from newsboy caps to feathered fedoras.
Police in Oak Bay, B.C., had to close a stretch of road Sunday to help an elephant seal named Emerson get safely back into the water.
Out of more than 9,000 entries from over 2,000 breweries in 50 countries, a handful of B.C. brews landed on the podium at the World Beer Cup this week.
Raneem, 10, lives with a neurological condition and liver disease and needs Cholbam, a medication, for a longer and healthier life.