Battleground B.C.: Conservatives and Liberals target gains on West Coast, NDP try to hold onto key seats

With the federal election campaign officially underway, British Columbia may be poised to play a pivotal role.

As the third week of the federal election campaign got underway, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre made his second stop of the campaign to battleground British Columbia.

The Conservative leader is proposing tough on crime, and drug treatment policies to gain ground on the West Coast, and continued to blame Liberals for the opioid crisis.

“British Columbia has been ground zero for this massive deadly Liberal failure, B.C. is probably the worst place for fentanyl overdoses in the world,” said Poilievre at a Sunday policy announcement in New Westminster, B.C.

Why Conservatives are targeting NDP ridings

In the latest Nanos ballot tracking, the Liberals (at 40 per cent) are up by three percentage points over the Conservatives (at 37 per cent) in the province.

The NDP are far behind at 16 per cent. However, this is a province where several ridings are closely fought contests between the NDP and Conservatives – not Liberals. And the Conservatives are clearly targeting those orange ridings.

“Conservatives come here every election,” said longtime NDP MP for New Westminster Peter Julian.

“Stephen Harper used to come here twice in the election. We had Andrew Scheer, Erin O’Toole now Pierre Poilievre. So we’re used to having a visit from the Conservative leader during election time.”

Nik Nanos, founder of Nanos Research and CTV News’ official pollster, said it’s currently a “two-horse race between the Liberals and Conservatives,” and that “it’s going to be very difficult right now in B.C. for the NDP.”

“B.C. can shape the next government whether it’s a minority or a majority and that’s why it’s absolutely critical,” said Nanos.

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But the New Democrats are looking to hold onto key seats in British Columbia as the party faces major downward pressure in the polls. The latest Nanos Research ballot tracking puts them at a new numeric low of eight per cent nationally.

“We’re seeing the momentum on the ground, but the reality is in B.C. people understand that you vote NDP to stop the Conservative agenda,” said Julian.

Too close to call in some B.C. ridings

Nanos’ weekly seat projections show the Vancouver Island riding of Cowichan—Malahat—Langford is deep in the too-close-to-call category now, with the incumbent NDP in a battle with Conservatives for the lead.

The Vancouver Kingsway riding, meanwhile, that the New Democrats won in 2021, is now a three-way race with the NDP leading but the Liberals and Conservatives close behind, according to Nanos’ projections.

And in Port Moody—Coquitlam, the incumbent NDP is now third in Nanos’ projections with the Liberals and Conservatives battling it out for first.

The Liberals, meanwhile, are trying to keep their own momentum going.

Liberal Leader Mark Carney travelled west of Winnipeg to British Columbia for the first time this campaign Sunday, starting with a rally in Victoria.

Carney spent much of last week dealing with the U.S. trade war as prime minister, but campaign sources tell CTV News that hasn’t put him behind on the campaign trail.

Methodology

Globe and Mail-CTV/Nanos Research tracking survey, April 4 to 6, 2025, n=1,264, accurate 2.8 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Percentages are weighted to be representative of the population by age, gender and stratified by geography. For British Columbia, n=173.