‘Could have a complete disaster on your hands’: Economics professor on costs of Alberta separation

The group behind Alberta's separatist movement is looking into how an independent Alberta would fund itself. Economics professor Moshe Lander gives his insight.

“It would plunge.”

That was the answer from economics professor Moshe Lander on what the situation would be like if Alberta became an independent nation.

“You need border control, which means that you’re going to need to have some sort of army. You’re going to have your provincial police force, you’re going to have to have a passport, you’re going to have to have a central bank, you’re going to need to have a diplomatic corps,” said Lander on Tuesday morning on CTV Your Morning Edmonton.

While many Albertans lined up to sign a petition to either stay in Canada or support independence for the past year, the group behind the movement is now doing a feasibility study on how an independent Alberta would be able to fund itself.

“For a government that’s looking to constantly try and slim down the provincial civil service, you’re in fact going to expand it massively,” added Lander. “You have to worry about all of the taxation components that are going to be necessary for Alberta citizens to be able to fund their independent life.”

Those are not the only components Lander thinks Albertans would need to worry about. He believes there wouldn’t be as much support as separatists think there would be from our neighbour to the south and even from our own country.

“Alberta becomes a landlocked country the moment that it separates. Americans don’t want Alberta, they want Alberta oil, and they already have access to that through the pipelines that exist into the U.S,” said Lander.

“The idea of Alberta being part of the U.S. is a complete non-starter and the separatist groups themselves have identified they don’t want that themselves.”

So what exactly would happen if Alberta becomes a landlocked country?

“You’re going to have to cross Canada, and at that point, Canada can then impose tariffs, the U.S. can impose tariffs,” Lander said.“People will find their way around it because they’re not going to want to deal with Alberta, and Alberta is not going to have nearly as much leverage as they believe they will when they separate.”

Although the idea seems complicated, it’s not new to Quebec. Lander thinks one of the biggest consequences of Quebec’s 1995 referendum on separation from Canada was the impact on businesses. While Lander lives in Alberta, he’s also a professor in the economics department at Concordia University in Montreal.

“It’s very clear that businesses raced out of here in the 1990s during that referendum. In the aftermath, the most telling one is that the Bank of Montreal, with a long history of being in Quebec, is actually headquartered in Toronto. They left as a result of the referendum,” said Lander.

“Businesses don’t like uncertainty. We’ve seen that in the last 12 months, with all of the terror talk and trade disruption from the U.S. The last thing that they want is additional self inflicted uncertainty.”

“The reality is that people would leave as well as they have in Quebec, because they don’t necessarily want to be part of an independent country,” added Lander. “You could have a complete disaster on your hands.”