A new inflation report by Scotiabank warns that well over half of cost increases observed in Canada reflect global supply challenges, impacting inflation expectations and monetary policies.
Through a macroeconometric forecasting model, used to determine causes for increased inflation since the end of 2019, Scotiabank reports that 50 per cent of the increase in inflation over the last two years can be “ascribed to global or foreign affairs.
“These include U.S. inflation, commodity prices and movements in the exchange rate,” the report reads.
Additionally, the report says supply challenges that largely reflect developments at the global level account for another 35 per cent of the rise in inflation.
The report also mentions the fiscal support packages issued by the federal government as a response to the pandemic, such as the Canada Emergency Response Benefit, the Canada Recovery Benefit and the Canada Wage Subsidy, collectively raised the output gap – which is the difference between what an economy actually produces and what it would produce in an ideal world -- by about 1.3 percentage points, “implying that the excess demand we see now in Canada would not be present without these supports.”
The report adds that pandemic support programs for firms and households are fostering the excess demand throughout the country.
“Absent from these support measures, Canada would still be in excess supply,” the report says.
As any increase in the output gap only accounts for less than half a percentage point of the rise in inflation since the end of 2019, Scotiabank says it accounts for up to 125 basis points of the total tightening expected by the Bank of Canada.
“We estimate that up to 125bps of the total rise of 400bps that we currently expect (from 0.25 per cent at the start of the tightening phase to our expected endpoint of 4.25 per cent) is in response to pandemic support measures.”
The coronavirus remains a global health emergency, the World Health Organization chief said Monday, after a key advisory panel found the pandemic may be nearing an 'inflection point' where higher levels of immunity can lower virus-related deaths.
The federal government failed to spend tens of billions of dollars in the last fiscal year on promised programs and services, including new military equipment, affordable housing and support for veterans.
A suicide bomber struck Monday inside a mosque within a police compound in the northwestern Pakistani city of Peshawar, killing at least 28 people and wounding as many as 150 worshippers, most of them policemen, officials said.
OPS and Ottawa Bylaw officers issued 192 parking tickets and 67 Provincial Offences Notices in downtown Ottawa this weekend, as people gathered marked the one-year anniversary of the 'Freedom Convoy'.
When 1990s suede fringe jackets started making a comeback last year, a U.K.-based vintage clothing company decided to order four tonnes of suede from a supplier in the United States. Along with that shipment came a once-in-a lifetime discovery.
Anti-poverty activists are praising the Quebec basic income program as a good step toward helping people meet their basic needs — but say strict eligibility criteria exclude many of the province’s lowest-income residents.
On a bleak, windswept hillside in northeast Ukraine, three young boys recently discovered a cell phone signal, something difficult to find in their region since Russia invaded their country. and they've set up a makeshift school around the signal.
On CTVNews.ca/W5: Executive Producer Derek Miller highlights an example of a W5 mini investigation that never made it to air, but made a difference in someone's life nonetheless.
On CTVNews.ca/W5: Executive Producer Derek Miller highlights some of W5's upcoming investigations, including Mexico's multi-billion dollar avocado industry run by cartels, and a continuing look into the Pivot Airlines passengers and crew who were detained for months without charges in the Dominican Republic.
The five-member Pivot Airlines crew, who had been detained in the Dominican Republic for almost eight months, is now back in Canada. An emotional airport reunion took place in a special pre-arrivals area of Toronto Pearson International Airport, as the two flight attendants, pilot, co-pilot and mechanic were greeted by family.
W5 speaks with Pivot Airlines flight attendant Christina Carello, who reveals new details about how she uncovered key evidence that had been tampered with in a nightmare ordeal in the Dominican Republic.
CTV's W5 has been shown never-before-seen surveillance footage of Punta Cana International Airport from the night before a Canadian airline crew was detained after discovering duffel bags stuffed with 210 kilograms of cocaine in their plane's avionics bay.
Fifty years ago, Omar Sachedina’s mother was expelled from Uganda along with tens of thousands of other Asians. This summer, she returned to her village for the first time. Omar recounts, in his own words, the emotional return to his mother’s homeland on CTVNews.ca.
Following the death of former long-time Mississauga mayor Hazel McCallion on Sunday, two of her children shared what made her special, both as a mayor and a mother.
OPS and Ottawa Bylaw officers issued 192 parking tickets and 67 Provincial Offences Notices in downtown Ottawa this weekend, as people gathered marked the one-year anniversary of the 'Freedom Convoy'.
A section of Ottawa's Confederation Line was out of service for more than 90 minutes Sunday evening due to a power outage. Full service resumed just after 10 p.m.
The Waterloo Fire Department is crediting a working carbon monoxide (CO) detector for potentially helping to save the lives of two people early Sunday morning.
It could be a watershed moment for homeless policies in Ontario. A judge denied a Region of Waterloo court bid for an injunction to have homeless encampments removed from land at Victoria Street North and Weber Street West in Kitchener due to too few shelter spaces, and the decision is already on the radar of city officials and homeless advocates in London.
The Woodstock Police Service have arrested three men following an overnight standoff. Inspector Marci Shelton told CTV News London the incident began on William Street, just off Ingersoll Avenue shortly after 9 p.m.
A Chatham man has been arrested in relation to a robbery that took place in October. According to police, officers first responded to a business on King Street West for a robbery investigation.
A sunny but cold week is on the way for Windsor-Essex and Chatham-Kent. Temperatures will be reaching highs of what is typically forecast as the average low for this time of year.
As Windsor city councillors consider rescinding their support for the previously-approved location for the SafePoint consumption and treatment site (CTS), protestors are expected to be outside city hall demanding the project move forward as scheduled.
Months after a knee injury put Montreal goaltender Carey Price off the ice for the 2023 season, the Price family says they're preparing to leave the province.
A six-year-old girl died in hospital Sunday night after being involved in an incident at the Val-Saint-Côme ski resort in Lanaudiere. Quebec police are investigating, though details into the event are not yet known. Officers indicated that it involved a T-bar lift, but they were not able to say more.
Anti-poverty activists are praising the Quebec basic income program as a good step toward helping people meet their basic needs — but say strict eligibility criteria exclude many of the province’s lowest-income residents.
Horror, outrage, and pain are just a few words Robert Wright uses to describe his feelings after watching Tyre Nichols pinned and assaulted by officers in Memphis.
More than 800 faculty members at Newfoundland's Memorial University are on strike. The Memorial University of Newfoundland Faculty Association confirmed in an email to The Canadian Press that the job action began at midnight NST after the deadline passed to reach an agreement with the school.
Monday could mark a major milestone in the history of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the World Health Organization stands poised to decide whether or not to declare an end to the global public health emergency.
Across rural Alberta, concerns are growing about the long-term implications of the province's renewable energy boom — the speed and scale of which has been nothing short of stunning.
Ukraine needs new weapons and faster deliveries to confront a 'very tough' situation of constant attacks by Russian forces in the eastern Donetsk region, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday.
The future of an intersection west of Edmonton in Parkland County, known by some as the "death trap" for being the scene of multiple crashes, continues to be reviewed by the provincial government.
Orthoopaedic surgeons report that they’re doing only three quarters of the surgeries they used to in B.C.'s public hospitals, with an increasing number of taxpayer-funded procedures carried out in private facilities
A Vancouver couple says they were scammed by a wedding photographer who used stock photos for his portfolio, delivered sub-par snaps of their big day, and then stopped taking their phone calls.
The federal government failed to spend tens of billions of dollars in the last fiscal year on promised programs and services, including new military equipment, affordable housing and support for veterans.
While RSV and flu cases steadily decline in Canada, the World Health Organization is set to announce on Monday whether it still considers COVID-19 a global health emergency, but one infectious disease specialist says we still need to keep an eye on the coronavirus.
Monday could mark a major milestone in the history of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the World Health Organization stands poised to decide whether or not to declare an end to the global public health emergency.
Russia's embassy in North Korea says the country has eased stringent epidemic controls in capital Pyongyang that were placed during the past five days to slow the spread of respiratory illnesses.
YouTube superstar MrBeast is making the world clearer -- for at least 1,000 people. The content creator's latest stunt is paying for cataract removal for 1,000 people who were blind or near-blind but could not afford the surgery.
What looks like a giant teddy bear’s face peering into space from the surface of Mars is actually a satellite image of some craters and a circular fracture, scientists say.
Nvidia Corp Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang on Tuesday said that the burgeoning field of artificial intelligence will create powerful tools that require legal regulation and social norms that have yet to be worked out.
Actor Annie Wersching, best known for playing FBI agent Renee Walker in the series '24' and providing the voice for Tess in the video game 'The Last of Us' has died. She was 45.
Barrett Strong, one of Motown's founding artists and most gifted songwriters who sang lead on the company's breakthrough single 'Money (That's What I Want)' and later collaborated with Norman Whitfield on such classics as 'I Heard It Through the Grapevine,' 'War' and 'Papa Was a Rollin' Stone,' has died. He was 81.
A solo exhibition at the Art Gallery of Ontario in Toronto is celebrating 50 years of David Ruben Piqtoukun's work. It features more than 60 pieces by the veteran Inuvialuk sculptor.
Dutch consumer electronics and medical equipment maker Philips said Monday it is cutting 6,000 jobs worldwide over the next two years as it revealed a net loss of 1.6 billion euros (US$1.7 billion) in 2022, down from a net profit of 3.3 billion euros last year.
India's Adani Group, run by Asia's richest man, has hit back at a report from U.S.-based short-seller Hindenburg Research, calling it 'malicious,' 'baseless' and full of 'selective misinformation.' Shares in the conglomerate have suffered massive losses since Hindenburg issued its report alleging fraud and other malfeasance.
Wall Street was poised to open with lower Monday as attention turns to this week's decision by the Federal Reserve on interest rates and a week heavy with big tech earnings.
When 1990s suede fringe jackets started making a comeback last year, a U.K.-based vintage clothing company decided to order four tonnes of suede from a supplier in the United States. Along with that shipment came a once-in-a lifetime discovery.
Pet fish playing a video game in Japan managed to log on to the Nintendo Switch store, change their owner's avatar, set up a Pay Pal account and rack up a credit card bill.
On a bleak, windswept hillside in northeast Ukraine, three young boys recently discovered a cell phone signal, something difficult to find in their region since Russia invaded their country. and they've set up a makeshift school around the signal.
Novak Djokovic climbed into the Rod Laver Arena stands to celebrate his 10th Australian Open championship and record-tying 22nd Grand Slam title Sunday and, after jumping and pumping his fists with his team, he collapsed onto his back, crying.
Nissan and Renault have agreed to equalize the stakes they hold in each other, both sides said Monday, ironing out a source of conflict in the Japan-French auto alliance.
Hyundai cars in Canada don't have the same anti-theft issue compared to those in the United States, a company spokesperson says, following reports that two American auto insurers are refusing to write policies for older models.
Progressive and State Farm, two of America's largest auto insurers, are refusing to write policies in certain cities for some older Hyundai and Kia models that have been deemed too easy to steal, according to one of the insurance companies and media reports.
