Could most of Canada still see a white holiday season?

A couple takes a selfie as snow falls in Toronto's Distillery District on Nov. 28, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young

While its December forecast may have been "busted," The Weather Network reports that Canada could still see cold and snowy weather between Christmas and New Year's Day.

The recent update from meteorologist Doug Gillham says while seasonal forecasts called for a warmer-than-normal fall and a mild "come-and-go winter," with above normal temperatures, sandwiched in between were calls for a period of more consistent winter weather for the end of November and the month of December.

"That forecast is definitely running off the rails," Gillham writes.

"We specifically highlighted that the weeks leading up to Christmas would be more conducive to skiing rather than golf. While I don't think many people were golfing this past week, the weather during the next seven days will be brutal for skiers."

Gillham points to a change in the jet stream in mid-November that happened as expected.

However, temperatures across northern Canada remained "exceptionally" warm, meaning cold fronts from the north simply knocked temperatures back down to normal.

By the end of November, some Arctic air did pass south through Ontario and Quebec at least a couple of times before losing "some of its bite" as it travelled across the Great Lakes, which saw record warm temperatures after this past fall and summer.

Despite some "significant" lake-effect snow events, the cold weather was never able to "lock in" for more than a few days, Gillham says.

He points to an "exceptionally powerful jet stream" over the Pacific Ocean as the key reason that brought a "parade of storms" to the B.C. coast and spread mild Pacific air east across the U.S. and southern Canada, resulting in an extended stretch of above normal temperatures for Ontario and Quebec.

As the Pacific jet stream slows, frigid weather is expected to build across Alaska and Western Canada, resulting in a weather pattern similar to what was previously forecast for January and February.

But as for whether most of Canada will see a white or green Christmas this year, Gillham says that will "likely come down to the wire."

He writes that several "dominos" will have to fall just right to create a period of consistent winter weather these holidays.

The most critical of these will be the change in the jet stream pattern over the Pacific Ocean and into Alaska, which could set the stage for a few weeks of cold and snowy conditions over the holidays and well into early January.

"However, if the jet stream pattern fails to evolve as expected over the Pacific Ocean, then dust off the golf clubs — mild weather will continue to dominate," he said.