Gold is set for its best year since Jimmy Carter was president

One kilogram gold bars at the ABC Refinery smelter, operated by Pallion, in Sydney, Australia. Gold prices have soared higher this year. (Brendon Thorne/Bloomberg/Getty Images via CNN Newsource)

New York — Gold is having its best year since 1979.

Gold futures traded in New York have soared almost 71 per cent this year, on pace for their best annual gain in 46 years. The last time gold had such a strong year, Jimmy Carter was president, a crisis was unfolding in the Middle East, inflation was soaring and the United States was in the midst of an energy crisis.

Today, tariffs are distorting international trade, conflict is raging with Russia’s war on Ukraine, there have been flare-ups between Israel and Iran and the U.S. is seizing oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela. In times of uncertainty, investors turn to safe havens like gold.

Gold is considered a resilient investment, with investors expecting the yellow metal will retain its value in crisis, if inflation surges, or if currencies drop in value.

“Uncertainty remains a defining feature of the global economy,” said Joe Cavatoni, senior market strategist at the World Gold Council. “In this environment, gold has become increasingly appealing as a strategic diversifier and a source of stability.”

For some investors, gold’s flaw is that it does not pay income like bonds. But when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as it’s been doing over the past few months, bond yields tend to fall, making gold more appealing.

Gold futures traded around US$2,640 a troy ounce at the start of this year. The yellow metal climbed above a record high $4,500 a troy ounce on Monday. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase expect prices to rise above $5,000 a troy ounce in 2026.

Gold’s increase of 71 per cent this year has far outpaced the S&P 500, which has risen by just 18 per cent. In 2024, gold futures gained 27 per cent while the S&P rose by 24 per cent.

Expectations for some Fed rate cuts in 2026 are supporting gold’s rise. A weaker U.S. dollar is helping boost the price, too, as it makes buying gold relatively more affordable for international investors.

Gold jewelers and people who own gold jewelry are benefiting from higher prices. And the gold rush isn’t just fuelled by Americans snapping up gold bars from Costco — it’s countries buying gold by the ton.

Central banks and geopolitics

Gold’s rise has been underpinned by central banks buying up more gold themselves, led by China.

One of the main reasons China’s central bank is increasing its gold holdings is to decrease reliance on American assets like U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar, according to Ulf Lindahl, CEO at Currency Research Associates.

The shift became noticeable after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Western governments moved to freeze Russian assets denominated in U.S. dollars, prompting governments in Russia — as well as China — to look for ways to decrease exposure to American policy decisions, Lindahl said.

“The current wave of central-bank buying is different precisely because it is rooted in geopolitics,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a note. “The freezing of sovereign reserves and the broader fragmentation of the global financial system have introduced a structural element to gold demand that is likely to persist for years.”

Central banks around the globe have accumulated over 1,000 tons of gold in each of the last three years, compared with an average of 400 to 500 tons per year across the previous decade, according to the World Gold Council.

Precious metals shine in 2025

Gold’s ascent has been followed by other precious metals such as silver, platinum and palladium.

Silver futures have soared a whopping 146 per cent this year, while platinum futures have gained almost 150 per cent and palladium futures have gained 100 per cent.

For investors, precious metals serve as “a hedge against an increasingly uncertain world,” according to Hakan Kaya, portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman.

That trend could continue. Lindahl at Currency Research Associates said he expects gold to keep rising in 2026. With central banks increasing their gold reserves, it can leave less bullion circulating in the market. Increased demand from regular investors coupled with less available supply could lead to higher prices.

Also helping boost demand for precious metals: concerns about enormous government deficits and debt burdens, according to Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.

“As investors have become more cognizant of these issues, they have been looking toward gold as a safe haven,” Maley said.