The fog of war: Changing weather becomes a new player on the battlefield in Ukraine

Ukrainian police officers observe an area on their way to evacuate civilians from the frontline town of Huliaipole, in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region, on Nov. 14. Although swathes of fog are limiting the use of drones by both the Russians and Ukrainians, both sides have also managed to turn the mist to their advantage. (Reuters via CNN Newsource)

On the frontlines in Ukraine, changing weather has brought treacherous conditions – but also opportunities – for both sides.

Although swathes of fog are limiting the use of drones by Russians and Ukrainians, both sides have also managed to turn the mist to their advantage.

On Friday, Russian forces exploited the low visibility to build a pontoon across the Vovcha river in the south of Ukraine, according to the unofficial DeepState website, which monitors battlefield developments in the country.

They managed to get at least 10 vehicles across, which then dispersed in the village of Dachne, according to DeepState.

“The fog is very thick, and enemy forces continue to accumulate,” said one Ukrainian soldier, Stanislav Buniatov, on Telegram.

In Ukraine’s Donetsk region, fog has hampered drone operations for both sides in the hotly contested town of Pokrovsk and added an element of randomness to the battlefield.

“Donbas fog. It’s good to move around in fog because it’s harder for drones to hit you, but it’s also hard for us, and it all turns into some kind of backgammon (game) on this land,” said one Ukrainian soldier in the area.

The fog has helped a Ukrainian assault regiment carry out raids in recent days into parts of Pokrovsk where Russian forces are present “darting across the rail lines that bisect Pokrovsk,” according to military analyst David Axe.

Ukrainian drone operator Yevhen Strokan wrote on X Thursday: “Firefights are breaking out in the most unexpected places (especially after fog).”

The Ukrainians usually use surveillance drones to track Russian troops’ movements but the weather is interfering with that.

“Fog, wind and rain significantly degrade drone operations, enabling Russian infiltration through Ukrainian positions,” analyst Michael Kofman, who has recently visited Ukraine, posted on X Friday.

On a porous and fluid frontline, Axe said on his Substack Trench Art this week, “the bad weather and resulting gaps in overhead surveillance” by Ukrainian as well as Russian drones “only intensify the confusion.”

That can help the Russians, he added, whose goals “require them (to) probe and advance until they eventually gain firm control of new territory,” but it can also benefit the Ukrainians when they want to conduct raids into Russian-held territory or rescue surrounded units.

Russia’s ‘numerical superiority’

The weather has also helped the Russians in the Ukrainian region of Zaporizhzhia, where, according to a statement from the Russian defence ministry Saturday, they have seized the village of Yablukove as well as two nearby villages.

The Ukrainian military said Saturday that there had been intense assault operations and massive artillery shelling by the Russians in parts of the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions in southern Ukraine.

It said there had been nearly 40 clashes over the past day, adding that “enemy losses amounted to nearly 300 personnel and 58 vehicles.”

Ukrainian units had been withdrawn from one village in Zaporizhzhia “to positions more favourable for defence,” the Ukrainian military said.

Earlier this week, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian military, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said the situation in parts of the south had significantly deteriorated, with the enemy “taking advantage of its numerical superiority in forces and resources” to take three villages.

Russian troops are now about 90 kilometres (55 miles) from the regional capital, the city of Zaporizhzhia, and within 10 km of the town of Huliaipole, whose capture has been a long-standing goal for Moscow.

The town’s military administration said another 34 civilians had been evacuated Friday. “There is danger at every turn, but people are risking their own lives to help with the evacuation,” it said on Facebook.