Iowa's presidential caucuses to kick off on Monday. Here's what's at stake

After months of campaign events, registered Republicans in Iowa are finally getting set to brave frigid temperatures and intense snowfall to cast their ballots in the Iowa Republican presidential caucus.

On Monday registered Republicans will gather at churches and community centres across the Hawkeye state to kick off the presidential primary season. The Iowa caucus is the first test for candidates vying to become president with 40 delegates to this summer’s Republican National Convention up for grabs.

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Bragging rights and momentum are on the line for the candidates heading into next week’s first primary in New Hampshire.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump is leading in Iowa and looking for his first contested win in the State. The last Iowa poll shows Trump at 48 per cent among likely Republican caucusgoers, down from 51 per cent in December.

"All polling indicates a blowout by Donald Trump, exceeding all prior records of the distance between the number one candidate, the winner, and the number 2 candidate," MSNBC’s Chief Correspondent Ali Velshi told CTV’s Question Period on Sunday.

Trump’s substantial lead has analysts and caucusgoers closely watching the battle for second.

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis are in a tight position for that crucial second place. The same Iowa poll has Haley sitting at 20 per cent, up from December, and Desantis down four percentage points to 16 per cent support among likely Republican caucusgoers.

Republican presidential candidate former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley holds up a commit to caucus card during a campaign event at Jethro's BBQ in Ames, Iowa, Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

Most eyes in Iowa, Velshi said, are currently on Haley but the most pressure is perhaps on Desantis.

"If he does very poorly he has to re-evaluate what happens next," Velshi said. "Haley is polling remarkably well in New Hampshire, which is the next set of contests, and in fact, she could beat Donald Trump in New Hampshire."

Former Iowa Governor Terry Brandstad told CTV News on Sunday that Iowa doesn’t always pick the candidate who wins the overall process and goes on to the presidential race, but it can make or break a candidate’s campaign.

"We always say there’s only three tickets out of Iowa," Brandstad said. "So if you’re not on the top three you’re probably not going to be seriously considered."

Brandstad said the Iowa caucuses are important to the overall nomination process because they show the strength of the candidate and their campaign’s ability to drum up support.

"New Hampshire is just eight days after Iowa so it all happens pretty quick after these Iowa caucuses."

On Wednesday, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie — who viewed himself as a Trump antidote — dropped out of the race, leaving five candidates remaining.

Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson is one of them, but he only has about one per cent of the vote. Hutchinson has been under intense pressure to drop out of the race but he tells CTV News there remains a role for him in as an anti-Trump voice for Republicans seeking “normalcy” in their party.

"I see this as an opportunity to beat expectations here in Iowa and there's a lot of unpredictability about it, particularly with the snow and the freezing ice that's out there," Hutchinson told CTV News on Sunday.

Hutchinson admits Trump has a large and sizeable lead over his opponents but says the campaign is long and a lot can change over the next few months.

"My message is I'm a consistent conservative, but I'm also not somebody that creates chaos, and the character steer still matters and I believe Donald Trump has been misleading his supporters about what happened on Jan. 6, and what he wants to do," he said.

There are some concerns that voter turnout in Iowa will be lower than turnout in other primaries and caucuses due to weather. In recent days Iowa has been hit with severe winter weather bringing lots of snow and temperatures reaching nearly – 40 C with the wind chill. The dangerous Arctic blast diving into the central U.S. is expected to make Monday the coldest Iowa caucus day ever.

"This may be the coldest caucus on record. I still think with the number of campaigns and what they've been doing, we're gonna have tremendous turnout," said Will Rogers, a GOP chairman in Polk County, Iowa.

It's a statement Brandstad agrees with.

"Iowans are really hearty people and they are very committed," he said. "If there is blowing and drifting snow out in rural Iowa, that may make it difficult, but there are a lot of people with four-wheel pick ups and there are a lot of people who will help their neighbours (and) others get to the caucuses."

WHAT ABOUT THE DEMOCRATS?

The Democrats are also holding caucuses on Monday but this year, for the first time, they will only be discussing party business and will not be holding in-person votes for president. The Democratic Party changed the format, opting instead for mail-in ballots listing incumbent President Joe Biden, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips, Marianne Williamson, and an option for "uncommitted." Those votes will be counted on Super Tuesday, when more than a dozen other states hold their primaries on March 5.

"The reimagined Iowa caucuses will be a simplified vote-by-mail process that will increase accessibility, grow our Party and has the opportunity to be one the most inclusive primary process of any state," said Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart after last February’s decision.

The Democratic National Committee voted last Winter to remove Iowa from its early primary calendar line up in part because of "inconsistencies" found in the 2020 ballot count and due to concerns the voices of minority voters were not being accurately represented.

Iowa’s caucus had kicked off the process for Democrats since 1972. The 2024 Democratic presidential primary now begins on Feb. 3 in South Carolina, a state that gave President Joe Biden a major boost in 2020.

With files from the Associated Press