Why are Iranians protesting and what does it mean for the regime?

Atlantic Council senior fellow Thomas Warrick says the Iranian regime is starting to show some concern for the growing protests across the country.

Anti-government protests in Iran erupted for a thirteenth consecutive day on Friday, in a wave of nationwide unrest that marks the biggest challenge to the regime in years.

Authorities cut off internet access and telephone lines on Thursday – the biggest night of nationwide demonstrations so far – leaving Iran largely cut off from the outside world. Rights groups said dozens of people have been killed since the protests began.

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to attack Iran if security forces respond with force. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has urged Trump to “focus on his own country” and blamed the US for inciting the protests.

As public anger continues to swell and demonstrations continue, here’s what you need to know.

What triggered the protests?

The protests began as demonstrations in Tehran’s bazaars over rampant inflation but have spread across the country and morphed into more general protests against the regime.

Concerns over inflation came to a head last week, when the prices of basic goods like cooking oil and chicken dramatically spiked overnight, with some products vanishing from shelves all together.

Exacerbating the situation was a decision by the central bank to end a program allowing some importers to access cheaper US dollars compared to the rest of the market – which led shopkeepers to increase prices and some to shutter their doors, initiating the demonstrations.

The move by the bazaaris, as they are known, is a drastic measure for a group traditionally supportive of the Islamic Republic.

The reformist-ruled government attempted to alleviate the pressure by offering direct cash handouts of almost $7 per month, but the move has failed to quell the unrest.

How widespread are the protests?

The latest protests are the biggest in scale since 2022, when the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini while in custody of the religious police prompted the widespread “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests.

People across more than 100 cities have participated in the demonstrations, which began nearly two weeks ago.

The protests have spread to Iranian provinces as far west as Ilam, a Kurdish-majority region bordering Iraq, and Lorestan, both which have emerged as restive hotspots. Fueled by ethnic division and poverty, crowds set fire to the streets and chanted “Death to Khamenei,” directly challenging Khamenei, who holds ultimate authority over the nation’s religious and state affairs.

Iranian state affiliated Fars news agency said 950 police forces and 60 personnel from the paramilitary Basij force have been injured in the protests mostly in confrontations with “rioters” in western provinces “equipped with firearms, grenades, and weapons.”

At least 45 protesters, including eight children, have been killed since demonstrations began, the Norway-based Iran Human Rights NGO (IHRNGO) reported Thursday. It said hundreds more have been injured and over 2,000 people detained. CNN could not independently verify the numbers of those killed and arrested, and Iranian state news organizations have sometimes reported individual deaths without reporting a comprehensive tally.

How are the protests different this time?

The fact that the recent protests began with the bazaaris – a powerful force for change in Iran’s history and one seen as loyal to the regime – is notable.

The enduring alliance between the bazaaris and the clergy in Iran had the shopkeepers play a crucial role as kingmaker across Iran’s history. It was their support to those very clergymen that eventually helped the Islamic Revolution of 1979 succeed, giving the rebels a financial backbone that led to the fall of the shah, or monarch.

“For more than 100 years of Iranian history, bazaaris have been key actors in all of Iran’s major political movements. … Many observers do believe that the bazaaris are some of the most loyal to the Islamic Republic,” said Arang Keshavarzian, associate professor of Middle Eastern and Islamic studies at New York University and author of “Bazaar and State in Iran,” told CNN.

Their role as a major political force has since become more symbolic, but the impact of fluctuations in currency on their business is what led them to spark the protests that have since turned deadly.

Authorities have also sought to differentiate between economic protesters and those calling for regime change, branding the latter as “rioters” and foreign backed “mercenaries” while pledging a tougher crackdown against them.

Two experts who spoke with CNN said the protests could lead to significant change.

“These protests, whatever the outcome, will no doubt further damage an already fractured legitimacy for a state that I think is at the end of its life,” Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, told CNN’s Eleni Giokos.

This round of protests feels different from prior ones because of a sense of frustration and exhaustion among people in Iran, said Dina Esfandiary, Middle East lead for Bloomberg Economics.

“It’s reached a boiling point,” Esfandiary said. “I anticipate that the Islamic Republic that we’re seeing today is one unlikely to see 2027. I really think there is going to be some change.”

Who runs Iran and what does it mean for the regime?

Iran has been a theocracy since 1979, when clerics toppled a secular monarch allied with the West, leading to the formation of the Islamic Republic led by Khomenei.

Masoud Pezeshkian was elected president in 2024, promoting a more pragmatic foreign policy, but his powers are limited, and Khamenei calls the shots on all major matters of state.

“We should not expect the government to handle all of this alone,” Pezeshkian said in a televised speech Monday.

Pezeshkian previously positioned himself as a champion of the working class, promising economic relief through reduced government intervention in the currency market while also blaming US sanctions, corruption, and excessive money printing.

But corruption across all parts of government, mismanagement of funds and the convergence of environmental problems and stagnant leadership has the government on the brink.

More than a year after he was voted in, the very working class he vowed to protect and the middle class that form the backbone of the Iranian society, are struggling.

External factors like crippling sanctions and a potential new war with the United States and Israel, has left the state paranoid, and the population anxious.

On Friday, state media agency Tasnim reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had issued a statement warning that the preservation of the country’s government is their “red line” and reserving the right to “retaliation.”

Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the late shah, has positioned himself as a viable alternative to the ruling regime, declaring support for the protests and issuing direct calls for coordinated nationwide action.

On Tuesday, Pahlavi called on Iranians to chant en masse.

At least some of the protesters appeared to be heeding his call. One of the slogans shouted by demonstrators Thursday was: “This is the last battle, Pahlavi will return,” according to video reviewed by CNN.

While pro-monarchy chants have been heard in videos from the demonstrations, the extent of monarchist support across the country remains unclear.

“None of Iran’s political leaders have a blueprint to get Iran out the crises,” Keshavarzian told CNN.

“The only tool that the Islamic Republic truly has left is coercion and force. People have tried different methods to air their views,” he added. “But over the past 15 years large segments of the population have lost trust in the regime.”

What have Trump and Khamenei said?

Trump has warned Tehran of severe consequences if protesters are killed.

“I have let them know that if they start killing people, which they tend to do during their riots … we’re going to hit them very hard,” Trump told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt on Thursday.

Just six months ago, Israel and the U.S. launched attacks on Iran for the first time, with Trump raising the prospects of new attacks just last week, days after meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

In a televised address marking his first public comments since the demonstrations started, Khamenei called on Trump to “focus on the problems of his own country.”

“There are some agitators who want to please the American president by destroying public property. A united Iranian people will defeat all enemies,” he said.

“The Islamic Republic will not back down in the face of those who are looking to destroy us,” Khamenei added.

CNN’s Kara Fox contributed to this report.

Mostafa Salem, CNN